Market Update

Hi,
Here is just a small part of my notes I write for my own reference.
Pictures are bit compressed but they are clear and readable.
This are continuation of previous weeks notes from the Google group I've mentioned few post back, which will be available for a while before I delete them.
You will also find notes on 16 more pairs. I publish them by mail directly from the charting program and it's a life saving option.
This Blog somehow does not accept the same mails and it complicates the whole thing.
While I don't mind sharing my notes and thoughts, I'm still not very sure if it is useful to anybody.
Any way, until I find a solution that will save me time preparing and publishing my notes, I'll try keeping this blog live with at least few views published once a week over the weekend.
Thank you for your mails and interest in my analysis, and I hope to be able to spend more time answering all of your questions.

EURUSD


I mentioned last week that I don't quite like what I see on the chart, so I reconsidered my view.
I made a slightly different count from the one in the last video analysis I published, hm when was that, 21 July, quite some time. Any way here it how I see.
So, I have two possible target areas on the upside to finish that B on the Daily if not finished at Friday daily bar high. On a break of 1.2831 last Daily bar high, first up is 1.2872/77 and second is close to the previous top 1.2926/37/48.
Break down below 1.2725 to ease the upward pressure and below 1.2632 to confirm possible C of (A) down.

And here is the Hourly chart for more detail.
I personally think it is a top, but caution is needed.
idejan















USDJPY
It is on target (see prev. post and for more targets too) but could end little lower, probably 115.84/53 to continue up...
idejan















NZDUSD
Intraday probably lower to 0.654<>0.65
There are slightly different scenarios (EW counts) than the one on the chart in which we could have a Minute or Minor top.
If so than the correction could go lower than 0.65, to possibly 0.63.
I still think it will finish little higher before it makes the second wave 2 or B. (see next chart weekly)
idejan














Here is the weekly chart and that nice confluence of Fib 50% Retracement line and MA resistance














AUDUSD
It made high 0.7580 and still above the green MA. (also see weekly)
(prev. bar on the weekly low @ 0.7483; red MA @ 0.7482 green @ 0.7490 and last bar low @ 0.7494, red @ 0.7479 green 0.7491).
This is the support needed to break to confirm down targets. First most probable target down is 0.7279/70 to continue down to 0.7 and below to 0.6792/81/72 targets...
idejan

My On line Notes

Hello all,
it's been a while since my last post.
I got an answer from google team that I won't be able to have my Analysis organized in topics at my Google group if I publish them by sending them by mail, as I do now directly from the charting program (nice feature in ProRealTime charts).

Since I don't have time preparing first and then posting them later with a reply (which is the only way they can be organized in topics), I decided to delete the group I've been using as my on line notebook. No use of it if it's not organized and easy to followup.

I downloaded all my notes, so now I'm making it available to you before I delete it. If it can be of any use to you at all. Not really educational and calls are mostly expired or about to expire...

http://groups.google.com/group/waveid


idejan

Steorn

Something very interesting to see.

Steorn

EWT Ramblings with Bear

Hi Bear,

I've read your conversation with modi on FXS thread the other day and I won't say if he is right or wrong, or how good is his approach, but instead, with the things he says, question arises if he speaks about EWT or rather to some new approach?! That is simply because from that little I've read and from seeing his counts, it seems that he (they) changed some of the fundamental principles of EWT and developed new breed. :) This is of course just an impression and not an argumented statement though, so I could very easily be wrong. I'm open minded to other approaches and uses of EW and I've said many times it is not the tool but the hand that uses the tool that will produce the results. So the comment is just of a theoretical and not of practical nature.
You also know that I agree with the idea that Forex pairs long terms cycles "could be seen" as representing continuous sideways movements. Unfortunately there isn't sufficient record backward (wave II can take up to 9 times the time needed to complete wave one), neither we will live so long to scientifically argument this :)
Although I grow the same impression that it is less likely to see some single currency hitting 0 (zero), no matter how improbable it is not impossible.
Anyway, Your conversation at FXS thread got me into rethinking the whole idea more deeply.
I have thoughts about that but never got to the point really contemplating them into an argument :)

Considering your question posted at fxs place about EWT and Forex sessions (US, EU and Asian)
Think of it this way.
As you know EWaves have fractal nature. Should I continue? :)
Of course not, but since I decided making it public post I will. So this part of the message is for those not that familiar...
Let's see then. Even on the same floor, every single trader's "mood" produces behavior which is reflected on the small time frames. Then you can see the cumulative behavioral results on daily and weekly charts.
I believe everyone get it even by now so no need to elaborate but OK, just in case something interesting comes out of this ramblings.
The only difference is in the accumulation time of single nano-fractals. While other markets have working hours, FOREX is 24 hours. It is not a question of place (and with electronic trading this is insignificant in other markets too) but of time (frames).
Time (frames) represents the accumulated behavior seen in patterns. That's why I said few times at fxs place (and you and I agree on this) that EWs are more accurate on larger time frames.
Now more significant difference in Forex is the fact that you trade pairs.
When a pair moves up or down, that could be because of few reasons:

If EURUSD is falling, that could be because:

1.USD is rising; EUR is falling.

2.USD is rising, EUR is holding steady

3.USD is rising, EUR is rising but slower than USD

4.USD is holding steady, EUR is falling

5.USD is falling, EUR is falling but faster than USD

So, there could be two different ways of how "behavior" in Forex can be seen.

1. People in general are bullish/bearish to a single currency (the above example)

or (nowadays)

2. People are bullish/bearish to a FX pair

Now the first way is the way one should observe FOREX. The pairs (one pair) them selfs are instruments or products which banks are selling to make money, and are not a true reflection of a real "mood" toward some single currency, instead they are a representation (summation) of the moods toward two currencies relative to each other. That is why we can't see the "true behavior" for the single currencies just from the pattern of one FX pair. But then, it doesn't necessarily matters (to many) since we are interested and we trade pairs. One could analyze FX from a single currency strength perspective (USDX, by assembling own indexes or like me building a RSI basket indicator :)...) but not necessarily. :)

Nowadays however, there are probably more and more participants which are seeing FOREX pairs in a more simple way (like stocks or commodities i.e.) and don't bother or even comprehend beyond that.

To make it really a ramble I'll just finish with this conclusion:
At the end, nothing of this really matters.
The only really important thing in any venture is neither your abilities neither the tools you have. But the level of confidence you have in both your skills and your tools. First two are prerequisites, but without the confidence you are not getting anywhere. You will either not do anything or produce poor results because of the lack or low confidence...
Build your confidence. Throw in some Money Management, it will help you. :)

Bear, tnx for your mail, hope everything's fine home, and a warm hi to bear family.
Dejan

PS. Bear, too bad fxs thread is not quite an appropriate place for this kind of ramblings, so too bad all those visiting there won't see it (or perhaps not :), they are saved from bore theoretical punishment :D )
Any way I'm making it public in the Blog.

Apology

Hi all,
I made a very stupid and unpleasant spelling error in the previous post (which is corrected now) and I would like to apology to the guy from Poland for the mistake.
It is our Cyrillic habit of writing as we speak, and misfortunate similarity of certain English words that contributed to making the mistake.
So once again I apology to my friend from Poland.
Dejan

For my friends

Hi
This post is dedicated to my dear friends.
At the time I decided to move from MTec, my friend Stojce prepared this Blog, but also a Google Group and a Forum, for me to decide what will be the most appropriate medium for my ramblings.
Since I was not getting much of a feedback and participation at MTec, and that is why I decided to move out, creating a Forum didn't sounded like a good idea to me. Groups are also fine if there is a collaboration or if you want to limit access to selected people (members. So Brain Logging sounded most appropriate at that time.
Well, a month or so ago, I started to use that group stojce created before, as a kind of a notebook, a place were I send short comments and Charts from many different pairs and Indexes, usually at the end of the week. It is not much of an analysis, rather just my quick notes, drawn on the charts. I started dong that as a coincidence of two cozy things: one is the option of ProRealTime Charts to mail the chart directly from the application, and the second is the option to publish posts in Google group by mail. Since I use to look at some charts available with ProRealTime (not Forex), I started sending them just as notes, that will be accessible to me at any time from any place, and by the way, they will be automatically organized.
Now, since I'm going on a vacation in a few days, I decided I should make this notes available to my friends and to few of the people that were kind to share their thoughts, questions or just to say hi. I appreciated, and you know, your questions were always very stimulating for me. I'm doing this just to keep you busy while I'm gone :).

Few persons that I don't have a contact with, can also send their mails so I can add them. They are regular and frequent visitors to my blog:
the one from Argentina, one from Singapore and the one from Pleven, Bulgaria.
If the visits I get from Sofia (Bulgaria) are from Eftim, I'd would be glad to add you too. The one with the Forexmasters nickname can send mail too. The guy from Poland, I don't know your name, I presume it is main1 from MTec, confirm by mail if it is you.
This is for those very few fellows Macedonians that are visiting my Blog, ќе ми биде мило ако ме контактирате за да може да си помуабетиме на темава.

That's it from me, I'm off for two weeks, warming my old bones in a warm beach sand.
Take care,
IDejan

PS. For those few I mentioned, I expect your mail by Monday evening (GMT+1) when I'll be sending the link...

PSS. You may find it funny and laughing, but it is really much easier to me to write comments about markets in English then in my Macedonian (practically no trading terminology..) that's why even my private notes are in english... don't ask me how much time it took me to write those few analysis of few stocks from MSE (Macedonian Stock Exchange)

NEW video analysis

Hi
I produced two short videos, one on EURUSD and the other on USDJPY.
You can find them here:

EURUSD

USDJPY

21 July Daily Update

EUR
...[A possible break below 1.247 low to 1.2394/38 (current price 1.2489)...first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893]...
Current daily high at 1.2678 but looking at the momentum it looks like it could make to the above levels 1.2707<>1.2715

JPY
...[possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down]... (current price 117.65)
Made a high 117.87 to reverse down, current low at 115.91, most probable bottom at 115.68/62. Below that 115.10<>114.89...

AUD
...[to bounce from 0.7434]... (current price 0.7445)
bounce was from 0.7405 not a clear targets here, probably not higher than 0.757<>0.759

GBP
...[probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35)]... (current price 1.8270)
Now right on 1.855 target (current high 1.8555). If higher, then possibly up to 1.8623


In general, you are now hunting an Minor* to Intermediate* top (On xxxUDS) and bottom (on USDxxx) pairs, meaning that if you position right, you can expect very very nice ride down (and it could serve even for the Primary* move down).
If I'm right, only the next move, and only on GBPUSD would be more than 1,200 pips. So no need to overexpose your self with huge leverage. (targets down after competition of the current action)
Looking at EUR it seems that this correction up could only be the first leg of a correction so we can expect one more down and one more up by the 24-31 of august (possibly as I mentioned above, to retest 1.286 to 1.2893)
However, it is my opinion that hunting this top/bottom would be very very rewarding. If played properly of course. If not, chances are (since it is a wave B) you get clean swiped.

I'd appreciate to hear your thoughts on the current market situation.

Take care,
idejan


*explanation for those that are not familiar with Elliott Wave terms
Minor translates to - Monthly, Weekly, Daily to 240 min moves
Intermediate - Monthly, Weekly, Daily
Primary - Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly

19 July Update

EUR A possible break below 1.247 low to 1.2394/38 (current price 1.2489)

JPY possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down... (current price 117.65)

AUD to bonce from 0.7434 (current price 0.7445)

GBP probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35 (current price 1.8270)

18 July Update, part 2

AUDUSD
It topped an hour after I posted. We still need a confirmation for the previously posted targets 0.7208 and below 0.7060/10 to 0.6860 Second leg is still forming (H4 chart the drop was first leg...) and it's not finished yet (meaning a possible one more move up before a continuation down) Next Minute move down would target a min of 0.7420 but more probably lower 0.7332/24...

NZDUSD
Right in the published target box. It entered into the box, lower band of the box, not sure it's over yet. We still need more clues for the longer term picture to unfold.
*GOLD* and *CrudeOil* I'm very confident it topped and we are about to see a significant decline (to 500 and below). Same for the CrudeOil (probably 50).

ID


PS. I wrote and sent this by mail to my blog around 16.30 and it is still not published. this was the first time I'm trying posting by mail. The first update (previous post) had few minutes delay (around 10min) but the second is now an hour late and still not even arrived.
That's why I've decided to post my update directly here while it could still be relevant since it is intraday comment :)
So mind that it was writen an hour before the time of the stamp here and if by any chance another copy of it appears later that means that my mail finaly arrived :)
I'll check later.

18 July Update

EURUSD
Bounced just above 1.2485
If this low (1.2495) holds, then first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893
I don't expect it to be a nice IM sharp move up, but rather it will be slow sideways to up move.

USDJPY
(last update 6 July)
nice takeoff from that last update and right from the expected levels for a ~370 pips move.
Now a break below 116.65 would be a good indication for a retrace to a 115.63/32 and a break below that would be a good for 114.10<>113.70
But... Looking at the pattern of this recent rely, I suspect of a possible one more move up to finish it. Possibly not higher than 117.6, I was expecting 117.30/35. If higher than 117.6 then possibly 118.4

ID

(other pairs to follow in a while.
press CTRL+F5 for to refresh your browser.)

17 July update

EURUSD
Way below the expected target area, and although it could still be a valid count, the alternative gray count seems to be unfolding, which as I mentioned in fxs thread on MTec, would mean continued sideways trading in wave B, before we can expect a drop down to 1.22 and below...
Since this drop went this deep, it provides a wider range for the next move up below the 1.298 top.
Intermediate bias is still bearish, but I expect this drop to end soon, probably not below 1.2485, to bounce up to 1.2750 and probably not higher then 1.2897, but we should wait the market to develop some indications before we can project possible targets up.
ID

NZDUSD update

NZDUSD
last post on this pair was accurate call for a bottom, and turned to be a good buy call (~0.5960/50) for ~200 pips at current market price (0.6167).
Now watch 0.6198<>0.6233 for a possible retrace, but I would expect it to possibly go up to 0.6269<>0.6336
Still no clear answers to those questions. we need to let the market develop more clues, before we can have the answers.
I'm still not really convinced we have a bottom...
I'll try preparing more detailed analysis during the weekend.
I also consider continuing my video analysis series.
ID

AUDUSD daily update

AUDUSD topping, but it could go up to 0.7573<>0.7592
Depending on your strategy you could short from here and add if it goes higher with stop above 0.7592 or hunt the top from here with tight stops.
If this plays true, min target 0.7208
next targets 0.7060/10 to 0.6860 (most probable min target to finish larger correction). Below that 0.66
Nice confluence with Gold, which was contained in my target area for a while but broke above it today. That made me reconsider a possible break little higher on AUD too. Nevertheless it is either a top or very close to a top, which represents a nice R/R opportunity.

This is a great Risk to Reward opportunity.

Take care
idejan

EURUSD update

On the chart is the update of the previously published chart.
It shows a possible Running Flat (wave [b]), and if the recent fall wave (c) continues lower of (a) it will be an Extended Flat. Of course break below 1.2478 will confirm C down... On the other side, break above 1.2980 will invalidate this scenario.
Best to all
ID

Gold and Crude

Nice confluence to USD view gives a look at GOLD chart and the CrudeOil chart.
Gold is about to finish a wave B up around 632.80<>636.45 to continue down to somewhere around 500.00<>437.50 probably 449.20

I expect same with Crude Oil, which could top somewhere around 76.56<>78.13 and correct down to around 50.00

This could be considered US Dollar positive.

idejan

AUD

AUD
if it breaks (very possible) above 0.7460 and 0.7472 it will most probably target 0.7477/7507 to continue down... just broke above 0.7460
let see...

ID

USDJPY takeoff level

Look for a possible USDJPY takeoff somewhere from around 113.80/50/00
It will need to break below 109 to negate my view, but breaking below 113 would get my attention.
Immediate break above 116 confirms next upper targets.
ID

Update July 6th, 2006

Short update on EURUSD
It is a closer look on what was presented on that picture few days ago.
As I said before, we see a possible ended B, but on the other detail I'm presenting a possible scenario where B is still on...



On the next chart we see that scenario, which I believe is very possible, some more stop hunting before the big dive down in the next C down to finish (A) in the target area shown on the above picture.
However, a significant break below that target area for wave [b] could seriously argue about wave B being fiished, and the break below the bottom of wave A will confirm we are in a wave C down.


Take care,
idejan

Short Update

AUD did not made it to lower levels but instead made a retracement right from the levels at the time of the previous post, and right into the posted target area of 0.7400/50 (actual high 0.7458) (see sumary below)

EURUSD
..."If so, then we can expect wave [b] to target 1.2640 to 1.2780 but probably 1.2664<>1.2717 to continue down in a wave [c] to finish first Minor wave A down, probably to 1.22/21 possibly lower to 1.1960/20."...

Finished little above the target area, and now it could be a finished wave [b] as suggested, or it could be just the first wave (a) of that [b], which would mean more sideways to up movement (or more precisely, wave (b) down then wave (c) up to finish [b]).
(see sumary below)

USDJPY
no point updating since I notice that I missed publishing intraday targets for the correction I was forecasting (...I believe that we are about to see a retracement in a wave [b] Minute of the first Minor wave A...)
(see sumary below)

NZDUSD and USDCAD last post still valid nothing to add and I'm sorry I don't have time posting shorter term on this pairs.

Summary
So in general, it is quite possible that recent correction in USD pairs (USD depreciation) could not be finished and could test the previous levels (highs/lows respectively in different pairs), but it would be just what my friend Joseph used to say "a sucker B" which would not travel beyond last tops/bottoms.
See previous picture of EURUSD we are in that unlabeled small red retracement wave [b] up before the next [c] drop down to finish wave (A) (blue).
Hunt this top from the current levels with tight stops, or from little above, than either ride all the way down, or take some profit at the end of wave (A) leave the rest for the ride down, and then add again at the end of wave (B) (again hunt it with tight sl)
There are many considering a 5th wave up, but sorry I can't agree with it. If somebody shows me how can we label that wave 1 (substructure) I would retreat me stand. But I can't even agree with the sub structure of wave 3 being acceptable for labeling it wave 3. I'm talking about the whole move up from Nov low to May high, somebody considering it a possible IM wave up and expecting a continuation in a wave 5.

Best to all,
ID

Market Direction Jun 28

AUD
Pay attention to 0.7220/00 for a possible retracement to 0.7400/50 before it continues down to min. of 0.6860<>0.6600 to finish the whole correctional pattern from march 2005 and continue up to min 0.9 possible target zone from 0.88<>0.98.
Immediate move above 0.7335 could indicate possible minute bottom at 0.7269 for a retrace to mentioned .7400<>.7450

EURUSD
Current bottom at 1.2478 is right in the box for a D3 (Double three) (y), both by time and price, so we have a very possible finished Minute [a] and a started wave [b] of the first Minor wave A down of a larger intermediate (A) (possibly it could be that we should use one degree higher for all waves and it will finish a Primary [C] wave).
If so, then we can expect wave [b] to target 1.2640 to 1.2780 but probably 1.2664<>1.2717 to continue down in a wave [c] to finish first Minor wave A down, probably to 1.22/21 possibly lower to 1.1960/20.
Larger Intermediate wave (A) (or Primary [C]) to target min 1.15 but possibly lower to 1.1<>1.09 even 0.9 but I'm not that bullish on Dollar yet :). Let market give us clues step by step.
*forgot to add this on the chart: wave [b] is right to the pip on the 61.8 fib of wave [a] and just a little above 161.8 fib extension of (A) from the (B) for the wave (C) of that [b].

USDJPY
Well my upper target level was overshot by some 60 pips (115.70/116.10) and now looking from the 109 bottom it is into the upper target area for a finished pattern, but looking on the last sub wave pattern it shows a possibility of extending higher to 117.5/118/118.5, but I don't expect this to happen, and I believe that we are about to see a retracement in a wave [b] Minute of the first Minor wave A of a larger Intermediate (Y) to finish a Primary wave [A] around 128<>145 by the end of the year. It is the first leg of a wave c Cycle correction of the Supercycle correction wave (b) from April 1995 bottom which is to finish in the next 3 years into 144/170/190/210 target area, which is looking way too far into the future :) and we better let market guide us. Temptation :)
(I'm aware the pictures would have been much clearer, but patience please.)

NZDUSD
Attention required. It is into the most probable target area so we can have a finished drop here, but it could finish lower as I published, around 0.586.
Questions remain to be answered:
- will this finish the whole pattern and we are to see a continuation up?
- or it will finish just the first wave of larger correction, so we will see a 3 wave correctional wave [B] up and then wave [C] down?
I hope to be able to have that answer very soon. The structure of the next move up will give us some clues.

USDCAD
just shortly
If we stick to the view that the drop from Jan 2002 top is IM wave down then we have more on the downside as I've published in some of the previous posts. Or below 1.0000
If we consider that Currencies don't develop IM wave of a SuperCycle degree, or that they tend to move sideways, then USDCAD could be ready for a reversal up. A move above 1.18 would certainly be a very good argument for that.
Anyhow, we can expect to see a move to 1.14<>1.15 before we can decide on a most probable scenario. A break above this area will be a good indication that we could have a longer term bottom formed.
Of course, a break below the 1.093 bottom will confirm my expectation that we could see USDCAD much lower, 1.06<>0.9

Not in a shape yet. It took me too much time preparing this, it is late and I'll leave GBP and Gold for some other post.

Take care all of you there
idejan

This could be the right time to buy USD!

Hello everyone,
It's been quite some time since my last post, and I thank all of you that were digging this blog all this months making it being of some use.
I just sent email, that I'm republishing here, to my dear friend Joseph and I thought you should know too that in my opinion we are sitting on a critical juncture...
Any way, it was Joseph who draw attention to this juncture early at the begining of the year.
Here is the message:

Hi Joseph,
I just updated my data and opened my charts to see what was happening while I was gone. I'll need some time to get back into the zone.
First, just a short on EUR and once again my feeling is that it is impossible to see EURUSD going above 1.3
So, the recent top could be it, and we could be in a wave c down of a larger degree (intermediate). That could be a hell of a ride down.
1.15 min. but way down to 1.11<>1.09 if not lower.On a smaller time frame, we could be in a Minor wave A down of the larger c down, with first smaller wave A of that minor A finished with this last drop. This recent move up is to give more answers but I can see it's target around 1.2700/50 being a nice shorting opportunity. Of course it could retest the top above that. I'm not very found to EUR this days.

But on the other hand, you know my favorite is JPY so I am putting a little extra effort into it. This recent move up on an hourly is to finish 115.70/116.10 to finish first wave up of a continuation up in wave y of larger wave a to 128<>145 probably 128.7/134/140.9/143.65 by the end of the year. It would finish that first wave a of a larger wave (y) up to 144/170/190/210 to finish in the next 3 years. So, the next small correction down would provide excellent risk to reward opportunity to buy USDJPY, around 113.4/113 for those that missed the opportunity to enter lower.

AUDUSD down to .68<>.66; NZD .5860<>.5260 (a slight chance that it could go up to .64/.66 (.6530) first); SGD not clear with this one but it is right in the box (both by time and price) for a finished larger correction and possible continuation up or at least a second leg up to around 1.8<>1.9 but you should know better on this one :)

Buying the next dips in most of the USDxxx pairs for a nice ride up could be a good advice. :) (opposite in xxxUSD pairs of course)
Of course it does not apply to CAD and you know my view on it :)

I will need some time to recover and to see if I will be able to keep posting at some decent pace.
Once again, thanks to all of you.
Take care,
ID

Announcement

Hi
I see that few still visit this blog although there are no regular updates.
I just want to inform all of you that I won't be publishing any new updates at least for a month.
Best regards to all of you,
IDejan

USDCAD

Here is my longer term view on Canadian Dollar, the one in blue is published before and the green one is the alternative one.
Taking only the drop from may 2006 it indicates possible not finished pattern(s) with more to the south. SO no matter what the longer term view is, intermediate view is still down to probably 1.1 if not 0.9

However, this pair has been delivering a lot of surprises, so I would not rule out that green alternative and a possible Minor move up to finish that green (x).

Crude made much higher than I expected, but it is still into the channel.
My view on Crude is down to $50/b, but as Joseph pointed in one of his myth busters episodes, it depends how you see CAD correlates with Crude...


ID

AUDUSD

This is a possible Intermediate view on AUDUSD.
Alternative in gray indicates possible finished correction and possible continuation up.
I however expect little more on the downside. Possibly .6958/48 to .6729
ID

NZD call explained on video

Hi
I just published a video explaining that good call on NZDUSD I've made on 21 of February 2006.
Bear in mind that this is a selected successful call, after the fact, (typical for services :) ).
I've chosen this call as a good example of a nice C wave.
There are and will be calls that would not work as this one. Although there were good confirmations for this particular one:
It drop below Wave A end point (low) and below 61.8 Fib Extension. It also made below it's internal subwave A (or 1) end point (low) giving another confirmation for a C of a C and it made below my most important MAID (green line) indicating possibility of going to the next MAID (gray line). My modified RSI was also pointing down (not shown on this video), so anyway there was a strong confluence for calling this wave C at that time.
I'll leave you watch the video now.
Take care
ID

http://www.freewebs.com/waveid/video/NZD%20Call.html

JPY update

It made only to 117.6 since my previous post, and broke down to mentioned support area of 116.9<>116.4 made low exactly at 116.4

On the chart is what I consider a good argument for my view.
The fact that I see possible strong Dollar in other pairs at least in near term makes me uncomfortable a bit, but still this latest development gives me confidence in my view.
As you can see on the chart, C made to exactly 61.8 Fib Extension of the previous move, returning a strong IM drop down, which after a correction returned again a strong IM drop down.
Now 117.39 low (smaller wave 1 end) is critical for this drop to qualify for wave 1 of larger 3rd, and we need a 5th down to strengthen this view.
Break below wave 1 low 115.49 should give strong move down in a 3rd wave down.
Alternative is wave 1 being wave A IM of a ZZ, in which case 3rd will become C and will finish the drop down.

I haven't done a follow up of my Market Updates for a month, last call overshot my targets up significantly.
AUD was the best of all, pinpointly accurate, returning more than 400 pips since then and will probably make few hundreds more to just below 0.68. NZD also turned to an excellent call and it adds to what I mentioned somewhere before, that 3rds and Cs are the most easier to spot, predict and trade, with lowest risk and with greatest reward. I've looked at NZD because Joseph draw my attention on it and it returned almost 600 pips since than. I believe it will make some more before it finishes this drop.
I'll try preparing an update for EUR, GBP, CAD but don't expect too much.
ID

Joseph, NZD!

See my post (chart) from 21 Feb... This drop and the whole correction should be very close to bottom if not finished, probably 0.5990 to 0.5940 and the next move up to 0.65 to 0.67
We should wait and see the development before we decide if this would be continuation up of a larger degree C or just first leg A of B of larger B.

There is a slight chance of seeing one more move down (possible wave 5 if this drop C develops IM...) below mentioned target support of .599 <> .594 but even so I expect a min move up to .635<>.64 first.
Once again I don't follow NZD so take it with reserve.
ID

JPY point

Hi friends
I'm just taking a rest addressing some private issues.
I just want to point to something that deserves attention, especially to you Joseph.










This is a Correlation Table from Dailyfx.com FXCM website.
As you can see on a yearly basis all pairs except USDCAD have had a fairly strong correlation with EURUSD. GBPUSD and USDCHF strong and constant correlation.
What is interesting and what I want to draw your attention at, is that USDJPY lost it's good correlation it had with EURUSD, and in fact shifted to a relatively good negative correlation last month.
(pay attention if the pair is XXX-USD or USD-XXX so USDJPY -0.86 is good positive correlation with EURUSD meaning both EUR and JPY moved in the same direction against the USD most of the time).
Below 116.90/40 is a good confirmation of a possible continuation down to 113.8 to 112.70 to 110.6 but if you want even better confirmation, break below 115.44 March 1 low will provide it.
Above recent high @ 118.48 and above 119.17 would make me consider 124 as a serious possibility.
Intraday, a most probable correction up to 117.75<>117.87 before any continuation down.

Take care all of you,
ID

Nobody loves me! :) :)

Yeah, after I leave, only then do people start opening up their souls and pondering why I felt like I got a giant kick in the ass. :) :)

It was more fun with my ex-wife in divorce court, where I was given a lesson in reverse leverage and a sobering glimpse of the Promised Land -- where the water tastes like wine, but all the while one's rear end just keeps puckering up.

But what the heck, problems are meant to be solved -- just splitting never helped nobody nohow, hehehehe.

I see that my friend ID continues to underestimate himself, belittle his knowledge and teaching skills -- all this, notwithstanding the severe admonishment he delivered to me in an email, wherein he touched upon my "lack of confidence in my EW skills" :)

And, where the heck was Bear? He reminds me of the woman you complained about her lover -- "he flies in like a bat, tickles me silly for a couple nanoseconds and then vanishes for months."

Just because I was smart enough to escape from the rat race at 39 doesn't mean I gots to do all the work! :)

Change is a fact of life. So, how can this be made better?

Dialogue is the only answer. This is a 2-terminal universe; masturbation is the only activity that it encourages be done alone!

But its got to be a 2-way street with multiple givers -- and I mean that -- multiple givers, many, many individuals putting their thoughts out, questioning others' analysis, asking stuff, getting things cleared up, making calls, refuting calls .... and so on .... you gots the idea?

A Forum then?

Its called Dialogue and its up to the participants to make it illuminating.

The 2 best posters at Moneytec were (are) Idejan and Fxsurfer. The former fondles, caresses and consoles the dead, while the latter rattles their bones with 20-lot, multiple daily ejaculations.

Had no idea forex was going to be this entertaining; even if it makes me go broke -- still highly worth it! :)

Yen and Yang

Idejan,

Your comments are well said but I believe we all teach to some degree when we post, we express an idea or thought and set forth a list of reasons/criteria why we think this view is valid and look for comments feedback from others to support or invalidate our thoughts. From this we learn as a student and the cycle starts over again.

How ever I must admit that your views on Elliott Wave Analysis are some of the best or better said most complete and comprehensive that I’ve seen. While you do not see yourself as a teacher, one can learn a great deal from studying the views you share. Don’t sell yourself short. Yes there are several books and sources that one could go to learn about EW, but you have a very good understanding and are grounded in the (for lack of a better description) traditional Elliott Wave approach and you express yourself very well.

But I would suggest that the Blog would be better served as it was originally intended ( as I understand it anyway) the open exchange of ideas rather than that of a classroom. However I must confess that I receive a lot more than I put in. :)

Will try to do more.

And I must apologize to Joseph for my silence but some of the questions you asked are completely outside my area of knowledge, and I was looking for others to answer.

I do have some thoughts on divergence, the math behind the different indicators will show divergence differently but when price on it’s second thrust does not move an equal or grater distance in the same time as the first, divergence will show itself. When wave 5 exceeds wave three but the distance in the length of the waves is smaller( 5 less than 3) an oscillator will show divergence, it's all about distance and time traveled. It’s normal and can be seen with the eyes. From your posts I gather your familiar with this and I will try to put together some thoughts and publish.

Sorry to get carried away there and ramble.

I would add that everyone that comes on the blog, please comment, ask questions. Say hello! After all, it’s how we learn.

Idejan, Joseph and Stojce thank you, hope the discussion continues.

Wishing all a great weekend.

Bear

Bear, all

Bear wrote me a mail, I've wrote a reply and on the way decided to move it here.

But first, WaveID Blog was not accessible for few days because of some technical issues as I've been told by the guys from Blogger support. Everything back to order now, except that we are on a critical juncture with this blog :)

Bear, I remember your post on MoneyTec, and I understand somebody could feel not being competent enough to comment. I'm also aware that there is a difference in format between blog and Public Forum as somebody else suggested, but since we three started a kind of a discussion, we made it kind of a forum, and Blogs still have comment option. So this difference in format could be only an excuse.
You mentioned classroom, but in the classroom, even without any spoken comments, teachers get feed back. They can observe their students behavior, so they get feedback from their faces and gestures, they know if their students are getting it or not, if they are interested or not. Here, without comments it is just like Joseph said, talking to a wall. He got that feeling in this month of posting here, I had it for so long on MoneyTec, until few of you started a discussion.

I never intended teaching, I don't think I have something to teach others. I could have something to share with others. We all know more than we are aware, we use our knowledge daily, but just few sit down and write down in a more presentable and systematized manner, so others can learn from. But my knowledge is not something I've prepared for publishing of any kind, it is not systematized, and at present moment I could not commit my self into such endeavor. It could be taken out by others. Discussions, questions, being questioned and questioning others, criticizing and being criticized, sharpens our knowledge and builds up our confidence in what we know and where we stand.

I don't agree with Joseph on my EW knowledge. I'm neither being modest or undervalue my real knowledge my self. I remember a friend of my father, a wonderful artist, stone sculptor, master of his craft was giving me my first drawing lessons. I was around 14 that time, and on our first class he told me: "It is OK that you are talented. But now, and you should remember this, you should invest 1 ton of hard work and effort for every single gram of talent you have, if you want to master your art." I never mastered, since later in life I turned to Film, it kind off integrated all of my passions for different kinds of art...
So even if I am talented, I know I have years of hard work before I can claim my master degree in EW :). I might be an old fashioned guy, but nowadays people claim titles too easy. Everything is so "digest".

I know Joseph insists he learned from my posts, but everything I could be held responsible is introducing him with his old forgotten friend, his own knowledge of EW.

From one genius mind of Management Philosophy and Theory, Dr. Isak Adizes, whom I had a privilege to met in person, and to learn from his Ingenious work on Management while I was at University, I was reminded on two essential ingredients for a healthy relationship: Mutual Trust and Respect.
IMHO we should use this two ingredients in our relationship with oneselfs too. As I've posted on few occasions on MTec, meAnalyst and meTrader should meet and they should became a close and very good friends if we want good results. That relationship should be based on mutual trust and respect.
Confidence is one of the key words related to success.

As for EW, it is always good to read what different authors have to tell on the subject, but the free Elliott Wave Tutorial available from Elliott Wave International is all you need.
Just don't take EW mechanically, neither purely mathematically (geometricaly).
Best Arguments are made, when all aspects of the argument are taken into consideration.
ID

Thank you Joseph

Thank you Joseph.
Joseph is right. When you don't get feed back, you have a feeling you are talking to a wall and you are just not sure if what you are saying is good to anybody, if anybody's reading and if reading do they like it and find it useful or not.
I understand him well.
I've seen the statistics, and I'm surprised my self that quite a good number of people saw EW videos, but not a single comment. That tells me that most probably nobody like it.
That is the reason I was not finding time to post new Market Update and a continuation on JPY video and the one I've said I'll do about other indicators I use to make calls.
However I'm very glad I've started writing the first time. I've made a good friend.
Thank you once again Joseph.
ID

Last post: Bye everyone! Goodluck in the Forex.

:) :) :) Thanks to ID; best EW course I've done.

USDJPY: has brought me face to face with my nemesis

USDJPY: can this pair be the ultimate gift to the alienated cognoscenti?

We know or have read about NZDJPY and AUDJPY and now recently, CADJPY -- but this is a new ballgame. Why? The downtrodden, written-off, despised, retrograde USD has risen from the dungeon and delivered a comeback, upstaging all heretofore stars, except for perhaps CAD, among the majors.

nemesis, the applicable definition here .... one that inflicts retribution or vengeance.

To me, this pair represents the foundation of what Forex is all about -- namely, a resting place for one's funds, wherein one earns a Return, directly proportional to the degree of leverage used. Capital gains are a bonus in this regard, as the primary motivation and underlying foundation of the Forex is "Carry" -- aka a comfortable, relaxed and enjoyable ride.

Depending on how much you go in with, you could earn more than what most working stiffs in America are slogging their assess off for -- Americans are masters at converting Equity into Debt, having no savings, living from paycheck to paycheck with a window of no more than 2 months before its Salvation Army time -- that 50k in equity financing, applied to USDJPY -- with leverage -- could give one of these working stiffs his ticket to eternal financial salvation.

But we gots to get the direction correct!

Amen!

That's why I'm urging all technicians not to be too flippant about their analysis -- give it careful consideration and deliberation.

This is the mother of all opportunities and we are sitting right at the threshold.

Somewhere between 122 and 101 there ought to be a clear message as to intent.

My call stands as-is but it is no mental picnic knowing that ID's analysis, which I respect more than any I do any other elliottician's, is dead against my call.

Am I destined to go down in ignominous defeat in the face of the opportunity of the decade?

See chart. Great video, nice work. The sound is OK too; who says it has to be perfect? It was clear sounding to me and all I have is dialup. Thanks ID.

Don't know if anybody even appreciates the fact that this gent is going out of his way to educate us and he's doing it for no money. That in itself, after my experience thus far in Forex, is ..... rarified RARE!

Upto 1995 everything is OK as even the alternates match reasonably well.

What comes thereafter makes me old and crippled.

But I'm happy. Why? Because Prechter is calling for wave V down and is therefore in ID's camp.

Therefore that is the last place I want to be. :) :)

Great difficulty accepting the 2 key waves as impulsive. Not for lack of trying; I gave them the benefit of the doubt every which way I could; but ultimately I cannot buy it!

(1) Cannot have a triangle in wave 2 position. Two locations where I see them. See chart.

(2) The non-EW monthly chart is goddamn BULLISH!

(3) Correction to 116-106 range highly likely and welcomed, but then we're going to 135, 150, 180 and maybe 260. The first sign of reversal and strength, I'm in with tight stops until the large triangle's upper trendline and 122 are taken out.

(4) If 100 breaks, Prechter will have earned the right not to be considered a contrary indicator no more.

Can see ID's point of view clearly, but I just simply cannot go along with it. I'll be forced to if the bottom trendline support of the triangle breaks convincingly.

Bottomline: I believe that USDJPY is the golden pair for the rest of this decade and is a carrytrade player's ultimate wish come true -- I could earn USD 40K per year in Interest alone. But to do this comfortably I've got to be right in my direction call, otherwise loss of capital will kill the carry quickly.

This is a dilemma and as usual I'm alone. Same shit, different day, hehehehe!!!

Tennis Anyone?

Idejan,

Thank you for the video, very nice!! I guess months from now we all will be sitting back, studying them charts and saying ”That’s what was going on”. Until then the hunt continues.

Late last year I was convinced that we were ending a 5th and headed north for a correction, and although price has headed north from the first of the year it has done so with reluctance. And while it has been hard for me to number some of the smaller degree 5 waves in some of the earlier price action, either motive or larger corrective zigzag, I’m now starting to think there’s more south to come.

Price has held again today on yet another sliding parallel from the prior daily fork, as long as this holds it’s making me think that more range trading is to come. Now wondering if we are in the final wave of an ABC correction from the end of last year.

Thinking that this is like a failed ‘C” wave triangle or perhaps a flag?( A bear's thoughs). If this view is correct we could have another test of the top the “c” followed by a test of the low “d” and then a brief run to “e” and then the bottom would fall out.

Just trying to stay a step or two ahead…..

Well for some reason I can’t add a picture again will edit when able…………problems solved

USDJPY: The fundamental aspect.

Its Price, Price, Price, but the Interest Rate scenario is tied very closely to investors' purse strings -- that's the reason I pay attention to monetary policy in Japan.

Another compelling reason is that the Yen dances to nobody's tune. It is one heck of a loner; ninjas, yakuzas, Mafia, gurus and everybody worth anything has tried to come up with some sort of correlation that would provide clues to how the Yen works. So far, zilch; a dead end.

With the dollar, you could look into bond yields, Libor differentials, Forward Rates, Fed funds Rate etc., to get some idea of what is going on. With CAD you look at the Toronto Stock Exchange for clues along with fund inflows and the CRB component of the Stock Exchange etc.--

But with the Yen, there's not a single thing that comes even close to giving a halfways decent clue.

What all players want to know now is this:

"Will the end of Quantitative Easing be followed quickly by the ending of the zero interest rate policy?

That's the ticket, guys.

Japan has flooded the universe with liquidity, & has been a main source of capital and savings for the world. Now that looks like it is going to change.

I have an answer to the dilemma and therfore one more key point in my ongoing decision whether to buy (long) USDJPY or not!

The Quantitative Easing policy did not begin in earnest until 2003, four years after interest rates were reduced to below 10bp in 1999 and two years after they fell to absolute zero in mid-2001. Thus a gradual reduction in bank reserves from the present ¥35 trillion to ¥15 trillion (where they were in 2001) or even ¥5 trillion where they were in 1999 would be perfectly compatible with zero or near-zero interest rates.

It is highly likely that BOJ will reduce liquidity while maintaining a zero Interest Rate policy for this decade.

There is a good reason for sticking with the zero interest rate policy.

Japan has a huge government deficit and a very high level of public debt relative to GDP. Thus when the economy gets strong enough to withstand a deflationary impact, the Japanese will want to hit it with fiscal rather than monetary tightening. Tax increases are already in preparation for 2007 or 2008 and to make sure that they can be implemented without causing a 1997-style economic disaster, Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance officials have agreed that monetary policy should remain ultra-loose for the foreseeable future.

All the discussion about ending Quantitative Easing seems to have persuaded many investors that the zero rate policy is also about to be abandoned. The Japanese yield curve is now discounting a very aggressive increase in interest rates, with short rates expected to rise by 75 bps this year and 150 bps by the end of 2007.

I am stating that Interest Rates will remain under 50 basis points or so for the next few years.

I'm satisfied with my fundamental analysis of the situation and furthermore, one more point in its favor is that now the herd is going strongly towards rising Japan Interest Rates. I certainly don't want to go with them. The opposite is the more likely scenario, namely, rates will stay close to zero!

Divergence study is now complete! Thanks.

Wow! You took it even one step further than I was envisioning -- I had not even considered a divergence between 5th of (iii) and 5th of 3.

Man, I tell you, this is one heck of a top-notch class I'm fortunate to be in.

Its the basics that are popping out at me and all my failed purposes with EW are getting rekindled.

I believe that in a year or so, I'll be a force to reckon with.

Thanks buddy.

NEW EURUSD video analysis

I posted a new Video Analysis on EURUSD and you can find it by clicking on the link in the right sidebar.

While I was prepearing the files for publishing, uploading the files to the pages price made a strong spikes down, stil it can't be taken as a confirmation. I'd prefer this to clear up before it can be clear if we have a confirmation down or we can expect this to be still part of the correction.

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ID

Joseph: divergences in 3rds

This chart was prepared for that previous post, and I was confused when I saw your post today, since I was not aware I've missed posting it.
So here it is, and as you can see I agree with your observation about the divergences in 3rd waves, actualy as I wrote in previos post in my observation, 3 wave cycles are not producing divergence and any 5 wave cycle (which means not only IM) are giving divergence.

Divergences in the substructures are reflected too depending od the degree and the time frame you are observing.
I haven't done a study on this, but when I've mentioned observing patterns on RSI I was reffering to this.
I dont have MACD on my charts so I can't speak much about it but it is clear to me that you can't play divergences on their own, but reather use them for inforcement on price patterns.

Now Joseph, I became aware that there are questions I've missed answering, so if it's not too much of a trouble to you, could you please mail me all of the questions by mail so I can have them addressed one by one.
Dejan

Myth busting # 3 (contd) Fed funds Rate

How did the moron try to kill a bird?

He threw it off a mountain cliff !

-----------


See my earlier post on Fed funds Rate going way, way up into the clouds.

And what were the geniassssses saying then? 4.5, perhaps 4.75 tops and then we go down, down, down!

What are they saying now?

"Over the course of the current tightening cycle, many market participants have been repeatedly surprised by the magnitude and duration of the Federal Reserve’s action. Several times the market has gotten it into its collective head the Fed was done — including in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, or the “one-and-done in 2006” sentiment — only to reverse itself later. Analysts are now forecasting additional hikes to the 5.00-5.50 percent range before this cycle is over."

Why can't a moron dial 911?

They can't find the 11 on the phone!

Myth busting # 4: Trade Deficit & USD

If you mow your lawn and find a car, you're a redneck.

But a Moron? .... that's a whole different ballgame .....

Why did it take the moron an hour to eat breakfast?

Because the orange juice carton said, "Concentrate!"

How many times have I heard the dollar's problems blamed on the Trade Deficit? Hundreds of times ... and by every single major News org and TV station to boot.

Recent examples: (plucked from EWI site; I have my own charts on this subject but their's are superior, so I present it here instead of my own)


“The US trade data for January is due on Thursday and may trigger some selling if it draws attention to the structural problems facing the US economy.” (AP)

“With expectations for a wider-than-expected result in the US trade gap, there is enough scope for disappointment, making the dollar vulnerable.” (Forbes)

“The widening of the US trade deficit was a key factor behind the dollar’s three-year decline through the end of 2004 and currency analysts warn it may send the US currency falling again.” (Reuters)

EW lesson 1 ... (contd) .. divergences before wave 5!!!

I know quite well about divergence showing up in wave 5. I am talking about subtle divergence showing up BEFORE wave 5 -- actually at the very end of the 3rd of 3rd.

There is NO Elliott rule on this, I am sure, but I was asking if you personally had observed any such occurrence?

I have, actually -- in spades, and would very much like you to give it some thought over the next several weeks, if you haven't already.

Here's the gist of it: (refer to uptrend as an example)

The 3rd of wave 3 produces maximum impetus which is clearly visible on Macd histogram, Macd and RSI(14). Then, when the actual wave 3 completes, generally there is a clear negative divergence already showing on these 3 indicators. So, actually this is the start of the divergence -- it actually starts right after 3rd of 3.

Then wave 4 generates a lower low usually and shows larger displacements on the histogram, Macd and even RSI generally.

From this huge drop in momentum, it is easy to see why wave 5 delivers the final divergence. There is just too much ground lost for it to make up, especially considering the fact that it is a terminating wave.

My point is that we've got to look earlier than wave 5 for the point when such divergence is actually being born!

EW lesson 1 continued .... answers requested.

Please see the same chart of Nikkei daily from March 2003 bottom.

(1) Yes ID, the black count is same as your count. OK, no problem here.

(2) Here's what I meant by the drop -- refer to the drop from the Feb 2006 highs. Keeping the degree of tend the same, i.e. Minor waves as shown, I was not sure where wave 3 ended -- January top or is it the February top. Sorry about the error in communication.

So, to repeat; could the Feb top be the top for wave 3 instead of the January top? This would mean that we are now in wave 4 down, with wave 5 yet to come.

Please clear this for me.

Thanks amigo.

EURUSD: wave 1 or A -- my answer to Bear's question.

This was my thought process -- humbly submitted. Don't know how many EW rules I'm breaking here, but ID can set me straight on this score.

Joseph's EW#1: Within the structure of the supposed wave 1, if there is no clearly discernible (ii) and wave (iv) looks like a picnic, plus the lack of any wave iv within (v) of 1, I smell a rat and this noxious smell usually is the malodorous, soon to be coming to life, wave B, farting in advance of initiation.

Joseph's EW#2: Look back to the corrective drop in early 2004 within the previous bullrun -- if the 2005 drop is wave 1, it is as dubious as a one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest! ..... especially considering the long 4-year bullmarket, one would expect a true wave 1 to kick better ass.

Joseph's EW#3: First waves aborn out of BASING structures and sometimes even in these bases they are hard to distinguish because they never rise out of the base and get hammered by wave 2 within the base itself. This type of wave 1, I call a faggot because wave 3 then has to do all the work while wave 2 thoroughly buggers wave 1.

The other type of wave 1, also out of a basing pattern, is a sight to behold -- this is a different animal altogether. Even on the chart this type of wave 1 looks exactly like an underpantless gigolo who's just seen a beautiful, sexy woman with lots of money.

There was no basing pattern in 2004, therefore this is one more point I used in the elimination process. Odds here heavily favored a wave A in my book.

Joseph EW 4: Wave 1 has a definite tendency to whack the uptrendline; at least put a dent in the sucker. If this was a wave 1, he kissed it, fondled it, got his sacs emptied and then rebounded -- here then is another reason why we are dealing with an A, because wave B of A is next -- the perfect setup for Euro bulls to buy the dip and go Long ..... to eternity, hehehe.

I speak only for myself -- and keep in mind that I've been sent here to blow my account to smithereens & to ensure that the Scriptures are fulfilled! :) :)

On a more serious note:

actual confirmation that we are not dealing with an OVERALL impulse wave for the entire 14 month run starting from December 31, 2004 is further confirmed only in hindsight by the following points:

(1) If the first drop was a wave 1, then the subsequent wave 3 into July 7th, 2005 was a mellifluous pussy. Why? Because even Jack was still bullish the Euro. No recognition in the 3rd of 3rd that "hey, this is dangerous, something weird is occurring" -- I'm going to get buggered if I don't reverse and jump on the train. I'm going to be left behind." None of this type of thoughting, thunking or whatever.

And what's been happening for the last several months, since the July bottom, is the characteristic limp dick wave B, fooling everybody with divergence galore, making all kinds of noise to mask the truth that he can't get it up. The reward at the end of this charade? Full retracement by big dick wave C to under 1.0000!

Adios!

Wave impressions

Thought I’d throw up a chart I have running in the background with the two predominant views, and ask a question for you Elliott Waveticians.

One of the points that was brought up in the Videos was the fact that reversals start with impulsive/motive waves, and that appearance has a lot to do with nomenclature.




Looking at this, maybe it’s just me but this euro fall from the start of last year, looks impulsive?????

I know there are many counts regarding this as a corrective wave, and using the old adages “you can’t tell a book by it’s cover” but “if it looks like a flower and smells like a flower, chances are it is a flower, ummm - motive wave? :)

Nikkei answers

Hi Joseph, Bear
The Alternation of waves 2 and 4 is not a rule it is a guidance, something to have in mind anticipating what could happen in a wave 4.
On your NIKKEI chart, ...but first let me just find something... A lesson I got from you :D..just a sec...

Here it is: Elliott wave counts work flawlessly only in hindsight! :D

Now back to your NIKKEI Chart.
If you go back to my NIKKEI chart you will see I labeled that part of the chart as your black count.
"My reason for the alt: red count is that the drop looks like a wave A and is not a 5-er"
I'm not sure if I understood this. Not sure what drop do you point and why it should be a 5-er.
Since you are analyzing a IM up, non of the drops must be an IM 5-er. To all of the drops on your chart, rules and guidances of the Corrections apply.
I'm not sure how would you label that alt. 3 if it is higher, his internal count?
On the part of your explanation about divergences in 5th, in my modest experience divergences show only in 5 wave structures, which means that beside the 5th of IM, they can show in parts of the corrections that could have 5 wave structures too.

as for the next questions on wedges.

Wave 4 can be any correctional pattern. So the answer to your "can the wave-C part of a wave 4 end in an EDT" must be searched in the rules for the waves C of the every different corrective pattern. Let see them:

ZZ

• wave C of a ZZ must be either an IM or ED
• if wave A of a ZZ is LD then wave C must not be an ED

Flat

• C must be IM or ED

Triangle

• C of Contracting Triangle can be any correctional pattern
• C of Expanding Triangle must be a ZZ based pattern

Double and Triple ZZ

• wave C of W cannot be a failure
• wave Y must be a ZZ
• Y must be equal or greater then X by price
• wave c of Y cannot be a failure
• wave Y must be grater than 90% wave W by price, and wave Y must be less than 5 times wave W by price

Double and Triple Sideways (D3 and T3)

• wave c of W cannot be a failure
• wave c of Y cannot be a failure
  

there few more rules on waves Y but no need to go into ore detail. What I can tell you is if you look too much into detail you know how the saying goes, stare into trees and you would not be able to see the forest.
Let your eye and intuition decide. Then if any doubts check rules. No way you can process all the rules and counts unless you trust what you already know, your intuition.
If it's easier for you, than try not searching for the Right Pattern, but for the Most probable one.
And as i mentioned many times, beside the fact that if you do your analysis well, EW will give you the right or at least the most probable Direction, the second most important thing is that you can tell at what point you are wrong and consider the next probable scenario.
Try to look for opportunities and not to be right.

As for "We also know that B waves cannot end in an EDT. Am I right so far"
since LD and ED are considered a special case of Motive waves (advancing) wave B cannot be either of this.

ID

Problems with audio solved.
video continuation to come.

Bear's declining wedge brings up another point

We know that the C-wave of a wave 2 can be an ending diagonal triangle (EDT) and that the same applies for 5th waves. We also know that B waves cannot end in an EDT. Am I right so far?

But, what about wave 4? .... wave 4s are generally triangles in their entirety, sometimes zigzags or flats, but ..........

can the wave-C part of a wave 4 end in an EDT?

Thanks Bear, good stuff.

Pour on the coal, Bear -- I've always liked your stuff, even at the graveyard. Good point with the count you've shown.

Yeah, things are certainly looking up at this little corner of the virtual world.

Thanks brother.

Joseph,

I’m not the Elliott Guru nor profess to be one, but throwing out my thoughts and we will see what Idejan thinks…

Thinking there should be some alteration between your 2 and 4 waves, possibly your finishing off wave 4 with the “B” being a running correction, the "C" being a declining wedge perhaps?? and you still have “d” and “e” to go in the "C" before up with wave 5.…

Just a bare brained thought.

USDCAD: I'm laffin so hard my head hurts.

:) :) :)Here's my post from March 3. Let me boast a little as a newbie, OK? I'm tickled pink.

"75% probability for ignition at contact point shown in daily chart. Caveat: 161.8 level is still a bit lower on voodoo Fib grid and is acting like a magnet/magnate. Macd has already made contact. RSi not yet. The trendline supports are from 2004 and 2003 respectively and command considerable respect. If they fire, it will be a rocket blast for some good gains, even if it is only for a few days.More as we go. Go salowly."

See 4-hr chart. I had everything pegged and analyzed correctly by conventional TA standards although my EW count was not correct (not a wave iv, but the move was an abc and c was completing), including giving a thunderous warning in my March 3rd post, "Defcon 4 alert for rally"

but what is the outcome? .. only a small position gives only small profits. Still better than nothing, but no question that there is considerable room for improvement here by going in bigtime when stuff I know works, is just about to happen.

But it is funny to see TA working so beautifully.

If I ever write a book in the future it will be called, "the reliability of long-term RSI trendline ignition!"

A nagging difficulty with 3rd of 3rd and 4th waves. Help!

See my attached chart of Nikkei.

This is only for clearing up my misunderstanding/difficulty in the area of 3rd of 3rd and 4th waves.

Which is correct, the count in black/grey or the alt: count in red? Why? ... your reasons, please.

My reason for the alt: red count is that the drop looks like a wave A and is not a 5-er.

One reason I have for the shown count in black/grey is due to my Precter days when I got the impression that 3rd of 3 shows tops on indicators such as Macd, RSi and even on trend strength indicators such as ADX. Then wave 3 gives a slight divergence and then wave 5 gives the ultimate divergence. Additionally, my own observations are that Macd and RSI generate a lower low on wave 4.

I'm fuzzy on this stuff and its quite likely there is an embedded misconception.

Your thoughts/explanations, please?

Some thoughts on learning -- students and teachers

There is a world of difference between a conventional self-determined student and one who is pan-determined.

Self-determinism is taking responsibility only & entirely for the self. Pan-determinism, on the other hand, is taking responsibility not just for self, but also for the other(s) involved in the game or venture at hand.

The former is an excellent trait to possess, but it pales in comparison to the latter.

Example: a game of soccer -- each team is only responsible for itself -- but think of the possibilities and permutations/combinations if one could be responsible for BOTH sides of the game -- equally and impartially. There's got to be a winner, but the depth of play will increase exponentially and all manner of art and magic will burst forth -- even in the event of a draw!!!

A close parallel in concept then, between a student and a selected teacher -- generally in life the teacher is selected by other-determinism. That's usually no good.

But when a lean, mean, hungry, determined student himself .... selects the teacher and then takes full responsibility for any perceived inabilities, real or imagined, in the psyche of the teacher, you have a recipe for success because it draws on the magic of pan-determinism.

His posts at the graveyard were outstanding, but what I've seen here is magic aborning -- like in the movie "The Black Stallion" -- this desert horse has EW levels of finesse that ain't never been tapped!

No newspaper ads, no magazine ads, no TV, no nothing -- my path crossed his -- in a graveyard; more specifically, at grave #34 -- a Fib number to boot.

A crooked, perhaps very knowledgeable moderator (knowledgeable especially in the realm of cliches -- he knows them all -- verbatim) at the graveyard said to me in a fit of rage; "you'll have blown your account and be gone from Forex within a few months, but I'll still be here!" ...... this moderator apparently makes millions of dollars and controls millions in funds of other companies/individuals etc. Bottomline: I wouldn't learn doodly squat from such a dude even if I paid him a trillion.

For months I was searching the graveyard for a decent broker and I was becoming exasperated. Every time it appeared that I found a good one, I'd run into a ton of negative stuff and would then eliminate the said broker.

I threw my hands up in absolute disgust and despair and fired off a mental distress call -- within a couple days I ran into Idejan's posts and lo and behold, his mention of Alpari; a broker who had not only Forex, but also Futures, USDX and a host of other stuff -- plus MT4 -- then from this same individual I found out that Oanda was also outstandingly good, whereas the graveyard was putting this outfit down across the board. Throw in the EW knowledge he possesses and you dig what I'm getting at?

A man's got to know his own limitations, but he also ought to know the right road when, in a drunken stupor, he stumbles upon it!

Adios amigos

Thank you all

Uh, far from being a classroom material.
I’m more of a intuitive person. I highly depend and trust my intuition. I don’t like constrains, so even when I have a system it is not as systematic as many would prefer. Most of the time it is more like a meditative process than anything else (nothing to do with yoga or any other meditations) and I’m not talking about analysis only.
I like keeping open mind. So while I have a strong attitude and opinions on many things, I’m always completely open and searching for surprises.
I apologize if at parts or possibly the whole video is unclear, specially because it is missing labels, in the next I will try adding labels and edit the video afterward to clear unnecessary delays. I just wanted it to be really live and unedited.
Sometimes we just think or expect that what is perfectly clear for us, will be clear to others too, forgetting that it came to our knowledge from something we have seen, read, heard and digested and based on our previous knowledge. So we need to make sure we communicate that same message to others as clear possible so they have the right message. But I’m not either a teacher or a professional trainer. I’m trying to log my cognitive processes so that others can use it, and perhaps I’ll improve doing that.
This was not my intention and if you find it useful, you should all thank to Joseph.
He insisted my EW knowledge being good enough for others to learn from and is responsible for this video being made. :D
I would not mind if he organizes a seminar on Thailand. I’d be glad to prepare better :D. Or perhaps I’ve ruined my reputation with this video :D

I’m addressing the audio problem and as soon as I finish that I’ll prepare the continuation of the USDJPY analysis including the current development. I’ll also present the other part of my TA, how I’m using one very simple tool, and I present it on that call from 28 Feb.
Stojce will put a link on the right side to a page where you can find all the videos I’ll prepare.
I’ve been told that many visitors from my neighboring Bulgaria and Serbia are coming this day, so a special thanks to all of them for their interest.
ID

Поздрав до сите Форекс пријатели од Бугарија и Србија.
Се надевам дека најдовте нешто корисно овде.
Вашите коментари и прашања се добредојдени.
Дејан

For ID: Thanks, thanks, thanks.

Don't mistake my belated thanks for indifference or ingratitude.

I want to read your posts several times, give it some thought, and assimilate the info before I respond.

A few more days then .......

Adios

EURUSD: details on my wave C (up) call!

Caveat: The market will tell me and you whether I am a shmuck or a sublime lover -- when? .... we'll know soon enough. I'm ready for both outcomes but prefer the latter and have a bottle of Sake ready if the former decapitates my pride.

Let's get on with it then, shall we? See chart. Stoploss line is just below wave 1 beginning @ either 1.1833 or 1.1825.

Wave C has been underway from Feb 27th low of 1.1825 or Feb 28th low of 1.1833.

The current colossal drop is wave 2 down. Don't know whether this wave 2 is a complete abc or whether it is only wave (a) of 2.

Either way I am in and positioned for love or a kick in the ass.

I remember my own writing about the devilishness of wave 2 and how every mother's son expects the previous bearishness to continue. This is the time for the individual to rise above the crowd thinking and walk the road alone, lonely as a son of a gun, with trepidation and his own internal destroyer wreaking havoc on his well-being. Such is life; it can be a bitch during such moments.

I therefore take my stand, hold my ground and wait!

USDJPY EW videos

Here are the links of the EW Video Analysis on USDJPY.
It is in two parts, has a low quality audio, but I believe it will do.
I will try the next one to be with better audio.
Here are the links:

USDJPY Part 1

USDJPY Part 2

Tomorrow I will continue with the analysis on the recent Development and since I was asked how I do my calls, I could shortly show that on the last calls from 28 Feb Market update.
It will present the other part of my TA, my MAIDs and my modified RSI.

I sincerely hope you will find this videos useful, I know that labeling would have been a great +, but it would have taken considerably more minutes and would add to the size of the video.
I just hope that you can handle my presentation and I'd appreciate comments and questions.
I once again apologize for the low quality audio, that was the main reason this wasn't published yesterday. Hope to be able to find the best quality to size solution and to clear the interferences that are creating the noise, for the next video.

ID

EurUsd: original call -- wave C up -- still very much alive.

My call of wave C up is unchanged!

Just hammered in some LONG ...... EurUsd at the very lows.

First sign of reversal and continuation north will be greeted by more purchases.

But for now, I'm IN!

Update

Never got the chance to get back in south and my north wave 2 folly got me nowhere, price has found some support back on the bottom tine of our previous daily fork, looking to get back short from a retrace.

Hope everyone's having a great day

Idejan, some good points on wave trading. Thanks.

well, it looks like Im back to being unable to post a pic again (it's blue because i'm sad.)

It's Fixed :) What's a happy color?

EurUsd: 4-hr move from Feb 27th

A samurai weapon -- apply to current EurUsd 4-hr chart rally from Feb 27th.

In Hollyweird it would be called Thunderlips.

aka "Trendline by angle"

Observe that the rally thus far scores 51 degrees angle of ascent, aka angle of attack. I believe virility of this calibre must be respected by all women. The current correction on the 4-hr is therefore a regrouping and recharging of the seminal vescicle.

Can it be a dud? Yeah, in which case it would be tantamount to using Viagra, which in my book, is cheating and earns my scorn. In this event, I be wrong and bow out gracefully.

If wrong, then let it be known that I came so that the Scriptures may be fulfilled!

Testing to see if I can post a picture

Here's the pic of the CAD from earlier.

The compose and edit functions are still kinda buggy.

Euro Update

Idejan and Joseph,

Here’s a couple of screen shots, that show my current thoughts. From last week price has found resistance on the black fork, Thinking this is the 5th that has been discussed earlier, ( I know you two are thinking that this current drop is a corrective wave, and I may agree to a point however I believe that the correction is much larger than shown 5 down, 3 up and 5 down perhaps??)


On the hourly, Don’t faint Joseph, as I mentioned earlier, have been trying to long on a retrace of wave 1. If my thoughts are correct, price will make the red box and reverse south setting up a 3rd wave down, and should be a good one. Price is making a small H&S on the hourly, and if price fails to meet the top of the upward sloping expanding channel ( if will have to storm north to do so) would show weakness in the euro, imo. Might add my north trade has not netted many pipola’s basically trying to catch what I can of the retest to enter south again. Would like to see at least a 50% pull back and will start to scale in longs again. Upper tine of the black pitch fork will be my failure point.

Joseph your C correction may be valid still, as price is still within the two major forks, but so far price has respected the south. One of the two will have to give soon, and price’s direction will be known.

CAD??

Joseph,

Running like the ole' chicken with it's head chopped off today, will post some charts this evening, Idejan was wondering my thoughts on a possible Eur top, but I couldn't help but take a break and post this....

Time for a retrace, but do think we are putting in a bottom, time will tell.

for some reason I can't add a pic, will try to edit later

Finally those EW points

I’m starting with the Note I posted to Joseph on his questions about longer term USDJPY view simply because in my opinion it is the most important thing you should focus when analyzing Charts.

Corrections, can start with both Impulsive action (A and C of a corrections can be IM waves) and Corrective action. But Reversals can only start with Impulsive action, and wave One could be either IM or LD (Leading Diagonal) in both cases the internal structure is 5-3-5-3-5 with the difference - possible overlapping if LD. LDs are rare.

A correction in the above note is …Reversals and Continuations can only start with IM...

When you analyze your charts, what you are interested in is finding OPPORTUNITIES.
First thing to learn in EW even before how to label a chart, should be that the only waves you would like to trade are MOTIVE waves or better said IMPULSIVE ones, and depending on the scale you would either trade the whole moves or only some of the actionary subwaves 1, 3 and 5 of the IM.
This is simply because they are more predictable and provide larger directional moves, thus presenting a better Risk to Reward opportunities (lower Risk to greater Reward potential).
Correctional moves are difficult to both predict and even more difficult to trade.
An exception could apply in cases where A and/or C are IM waves.
Since we all know the basics of EW no point on explaining them, but out of that basics comes a simple conclusion.
Motive waves move in a five wave structures and corrective in a three.
So either way there is a third wave always.
And since you need at least two points to determine direction, that is why the best waves to trade are 3rd waves of an IM and Cs, especially when C is IM itself. This also because ZigZags correctional patterns are prety much same with IM since thay have internal structure of 5-3-5 but the diference is that they are 3 wave structures, so the next 3-5 will not happen and that can full you.

What I will present here is something you all know, and is very very simple, so simple I'm not sure I sould be writing about it. But this in my opinion is the first and most you should know of EW when analysing Markets looking for opportunities.

When we are looking on a chart we are actually looking at/for either:

• Reversal of the trend
• Continuation of the trend
• Or Correction of the trend

(since I was chatting in a room, this took more time to write so I’ll make it short and then explain if there are questions)

• If we are looking for a Reversal, we will look for a finished IM wave and IM wave started after it but in the other direction (one of a smaller degree). Problem here is because the next returned IM in the other direction could be either wave 1 of the reversal or just a wave A of the correction. That is why it is better to wait for a confirmation.
  Answer on this dilemma lie just below the previous IM end (top or bottom) and after the next IM wave (in opposite direction) is finished the confirmation is above that wave high.

• If we are in a Continuation, than we want to see a finished IM wave followed by a correction. This is excellent indication for a continuation above previous top (or below bottom)(exemptions are failed or truncated fifths).

• So as mentioned in previous case, Corrections are only good indication of a continuation of a previous trend. But you can also trade the 3rd waves of the corrections labeled as C waves, as they provide same or similar opportunities as 3rd waves of an IM because they can develop as IM waves too. C waves of the Flats and ZZ must develop as IM waves.

This is the essence, no matter how you label the charts, this is what will give you the most important answers and will help you find the best opportunities on that charts.

I’m preparing a video for USDJPY questions. Link coming shortly after I manage to pack it in reasonable size.

Below is the Joseph's Long Term USDJPY and 3 points of consideration.

On the second (ok if considered C but should be followed by IM... should add ...or followed by D)

Addition to the 4/1 overlapping post should be that overlapping in Impulsive waves is also possible in two special cases: Leading Diagonals and Ending Diagonals, which are type of Triangle formations but with steeper advancing slope. LD could develop in wave 1, and ED in wave 5. Difference between this two are that, while ED have internal structure of 3-3-3-3-3 same as corrective waves, LD have 5-3-5-3-5 IM structure with typical overlapping.

Last calls from 28 of Feb, came out nicely, but unfortunately I was not able to publish a follow up on them.

ID

USDCAD: Look Ma: you told me there'd be days like this!

:) :) this is getting more and more hilarious. Witchcraft! voodoo! What will the fundamentalists say?

But wait, here's a thought -- others feel free to offer some arguments for and against, OK?

so far, textbook bounce off daily macd/RSi trendline support -- in this case the Macd fired first -- but also the FE 161.8%. Currently at FE 100% resistance after also hitting 38.2 fib.

My analysis tells me this is a wave iv and that we've got to go back down for wave v to the 161.8% level @ 1.1300 or thereabouts again.

That will be good temp bottom. This is MHO.

But some of you may feel that the rally is going to just continue and not return to the 1300 area.

Well?