idejan's Market Direction Analysis

NEW POSTS

2009-08-22T01:56:00.001+02:00

For some reason I still can't post charts directly via mail, but can do that in Google Groups.
So here are some fresh notes I just published there...

ID

NOTICE: This are not Trade recommendations or advices and I don't accept any responsibility what soever.

Publish Post

Dow Jones reversing?

2009-03-16T00:01:00.002+01:00

Did DJI hit the bottom?
It's on my target from previous post 6840<>6550<>6040, low @ 6469.95 (source Google Finance) and developing a structure that could indicate a very possible reversal i.e. formed bottom and beginning of a new uptrend cycle.

ID

NOTICE: This are not Trade recommendations or advices and I don't accept any responsibility what soever.

End of THE Recession?

2009-01-04T22:52:00.014+01:00

Hi there,
I wrote this to a friend of mine a week ago and it's something I had in mind for some time.
I took a look at the Dow and I searched to find a chart of adjusted Dow for it's real value (represented in Gold) but I found just this chart of inflation adjusted DJ which is probably very similar picture.

As you can see, while the DJIA (blue line) made new high at the beginning of 2007 the adjusted Dow (red line) never made it so high.
Based on the adjusted DJIA chart, it is quite possible that we are living the last leg of the larger correction that started 2000.
:)
Just to cheer you up.

There are some other indications supporting this view. IMHO we need to wait for just a few months more to see the developing.
On my charts from few days ago, you'll see I forecast DJI to go up to 10,200 (it's not actually shown but it can be seen based on the fib ext tool points...) before it dips possibly to end this correction down to 6840<>6550<>6040.

If this is correct EW (Elliott Wave) count than we can expect developing of a new UP trend very soon... :)

Few months ago I said I expect Dow Jones US Home Construction Index to end it's fall, and it now shows some indication of a possible reversal. This supports previously said, but it will take time to be confirmed. (.DJUSHB on Google Finance you can see a possible IM - Impulsive wave 1 up finished....)

I was doing some analysis on few Forex pairs, but still far from being in shape. I mainly look for short term moves, still trying to grasp the bigger picture.

(still considering few options for my future posts

Freelance again

2008-12-20T14:38:00.003+01:00

My Film Fund adventure is finally over and I am a freelancer again :).
Hope to return to posting Market Direction forecasts on a regular basis very soon. As you probably know I was doing forecasts on Forex pairs based mainly on Elliott Wave theory.
I need to decide which will be the best place to do that, since I was posting on few different places: MoneyTec, this Blog and a Google Group which I kept as my private place for some time.
I hope that when activated again, this blog will gather back some of my very dear friends and their comments.

Best,
ID

2007-10-07T00:17:00.000+02:00

Well I wanted to preserve some of my first writings I published at MoneyTec forum in my first thread opened there called My Elliott Wave Charts.

Somehow I find it more safe here than in my computer :)
Any way I only recently copied my posts with ease, keeping the original formating, thanks to Google Notebook.
Here are my posts from mid 2005.
Very best to all
idejan

PS. At the time I wrote those posts below, I was not very familiar with Iris's work and consequently, with his understanding of Fundamentals.
Anyway, although I later understood what he means by Fundamentals (He practices Gann among other methods)(and not that I agree with him even now anyway), I am grateful that I was inspired with his awkward stile of writing to write this ramblings on the psychology and forces behind Markets.
So thanks to Iris and his MoneyTec thread and also thanks to Noor, who always stood there to defend Iris...

ID Elliott Wave & Forex Writings

My Elliott Wave Charts Thread

My Elliott Wave Charts - Page 2 - MoneyTec Traders Community Forum
Recently I've published a post disagreeing with Iris and what he said about the Fundamentals -

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iris

"...expectations do not set Long Term Price levels...Fundamentals do..."

Since his thread is not a discussion one, I've decided not to answer to Noor there (although I was always very interested to find out how can somebody learn just following signals and not knowing how they were produced).
But since it is an interesting subject (fundamentals) I've decided to paste my previous post from Iris's thread here, with a little follow up example.

Quote:

Originally Posted by idejan

Hi Iris,
Although I admire your work very much, I could not agree on this with you.
Actually what you read (fundamentals) today, usually is a report for a period of at least one month before. What happened that month is a consequence of something that occurred 3-6 months before (if not more)...
Expectations (desires, hopes, dreams beliefs etc. - the social mood) produces behavior which produces results (measured with - fundamentals).
How can possibly someone explain why on stellar good reports dollar did not react (or did negatively) and opposite on that we've seen huge moves on weak and bad data? (and not only $US)
You've all probably heard before a one word explanation - HERD, CROWD. MASSES...
What I agree with you is that we are on a juncture (which I believe is to be a bit higher @ 1.2450/95) to go south to 1.2297/63 (my time projection was 5-9 but few days more would be acceptable for me) .
*(thanks to Iris I've started learning more about time)

Best to all and don't give any PIPs back,
ID

As I mentioned in the post I admire Iris work and his knowledge of market geometry. Although my analysis included time (using Fibonacci), it was reading his thread that got me interested in some other price/time research.
If however we were in a bar, and you'd ask me which one of the two girls sitting at the other side of the bar I'd prefer, the blond or the brunette, (I'd most probably said both, but) I'd said I prefer blond. On the other hand if I was to give you a rational answer, I'd probably said that I'd consider face, body, length of their legs... and other attributes (or, their "fundamentals"). However both you and me, we know that it is the amount of beer we've drunk that's the most important. (or mood)

Oops, I did not mentioned some fundamentals like intelligence... it's definitely the beer.
ID
*but then again it's only me being impressed with social phenomenas...
and only if people were rational beings...

My Elliott Wave Charts - Page 2 - MoneyTec Traders Community Forum
Hi everybody,

Inspired with the latest posts in one of my favorite threads, Trading Eur/Usd with uncle Elliot, I decided to post my opinion on something I've mentioned in my previous posts, and that's my opinion about trading Elliott Waves on different time frames.
Part of what I've posted in mentioned post was:

Quote:

Originally Posted by idejan

The best advice I can give is that Elliott doesn't works that good on small time frames and for scalping. (it works but it requires a great great experience, and if you could do it people will probably call you NEO )

The Wave Principle is about the market behavior, or the tendencies and trends in the social behavior (psychology of the crowd).
If you are too close to, or in the crowd, you could not possibly see the crowd, how it behaves and which direction it goes. You will see those near you, their moves, emotions etc.
E.g. From the view point of an antelope there is no particular direction where it's heading when it starts running, since it follows the first next to it. It doesn't even knows why's doing that at the moment, or if it's wise thing to do. But it is not really important how wise it is, since their primal part of the brain sends an impulse which says "preserve". Preserve life. Their trail is zig zag and seem quite confused (doesn't those moves on a 1 min charts on important announcements seem similar?).
But if you pull out and lift your camera above the herd, you are starting to get some direction. And going even further above you don't see all those small zz all those antelopes in the herd are doing, but you'll see the HERD going in some pointed direction.
Traders primal instinct says preserve too. They need to preserve their money.

Isn't that an example. moments of inspiration
But in fact, it is a good example.
So, it is my humble opinion that EW works best on Daily charts, since it filters all those small moves, using Hourly for checking sub-waves and determining the confirmation - invalidation levels (S/L below invalidation).
ID

My Elliott Wave Charts - Page 3 - MoneyTec Traders Community Forum

Market Essentials

Again something that I've posted at Iris's thread and I'd like to comment more than it's possible or appropriate at his thread.
and here it is accompanied with the additional comments:

Quote:

Originally Posted by idejan

Originally Posted by Iris
Hello Noor and Everyone.......

... The Markets Price expectation will always revert back to the Fundamental of Time...today's a good example ...

__________
Yes I agree, it will eventually.
But the thing is, that while forecasting markets gives a room and comfort of being wrong until it does (price reverts), trading markets doesn't. If ones stops are being hit every day for a time period of a day(s), week(s), month(s), chances of one being drawn down, grows with his/hers continuing "expectation" that the Price will at some point "revert back to the Fundamentals of Time".
So, it could always prove that ones anticipation should revert back to the Fundamentals of Time, rather than waiting the Price to do that. Especially if Time and Price are correlated and in a some kind of an agreement

_______________
Originally Posted by Iris
Time has Curvo-Linear Wave properties...and they do repeat...Price is a mathmatical numeric that exists within and must conform to the structure of Time because they operate within the same constants and variables
_______________

than it could be that they never disagree (diverge), but it's our expectations about the Fundamentals, that are in a disagreement (both with time and price).
_______________
Originally Posted by Iris
... In regards to disparities between them or "Fog" the Markets Price expectation will always revert back to the Fundamentals of Time calculated thru the Technical of Price...for that is how a Trend continues or reverses course to its true value...
_______________
And to the point.
Markets Price expectation will never revert back to the Fundamentals of Time, since the PRICE is THE EXPECTATION(S). It is the Aggregate Expectation and Agreement of the MASS (even those not trading, since their expectations influence Fundamentals etc.)

Market Price expectations, the PRICE, will never revert back to the "Fundamentals of Time", since it is ahead of them in time. Ultimately it is the Fundamentals that will at some point of time show up to reflect the results of the ACCUMULATED EXPECTATIONS or "Social Tendencies - Behavior".

As for the
______________
Originally Posted by Iris
...today's a good example ...
______________
The price before the announcement was trading in a range from 1.2449 to 1.2485 (36 pips) and just before the announcement was somewhere @ about 1.2465 HIGH. In the next 30 minutes, it fell down to 1.2381 LOW (84 pips) to get to 1.2445 (64 PIPs or 76% of previous move) in the next 5 and a half hours. Previous trading day low was around 1.2375 and high at 1.2475 (100 Pips) with a closing just a few pips below the previous high. The Average day move for EURUSD I believe is to be 110-120 PIPs.
Sorry, I could not give a significance to something that insignificant as Friday's "Markets Price expectation reverting back to the Fundamental of Time".

I've started an explanation of the terms Fundamentals and Expectations here, since they are the key in this post (and many others), but decided to move it to my post, for one to keep this post simple (if that was possible at all ) and because of the possible discussion on the subject, since this thread is not a discussion one.
You can find it Charting & Technical Analyst under My Elliot Waves Charts

Best to all,
ID

Important NOTE:
I'm not following Iris calls and I don't imply this to his calls, even that it just seem to me he was wrong on EURUSD for same time. I don't have a record of that and it is not the point here to prove that he is wrong. This is just my humble opinion and a different view on some of the Market essentials.

Here is that part on The terms Fundamentals and Expectations:
I'm getting very annoyed with the implied meaning to the "Fundamentals" as being THE FUNDAMENTALS. Economic indicators are just a numeric representation (and not accurate but more of a trial representations) to RESULTS in the ECONOMY which it self is a one of the pillars of the society, since trough the "actions" of man in the "economy" he can fulfill one of it's FUNDAMENTAL NEEDS (the need for material necessities - food, cloths etc for himself and his family - or Economic security and safety). So the indicators are not FUNDAMENTALS.
As for the EXPECTATIONS, I've used them just because of the relation to the previous posts, and they are in fact (dreams, hopes, desires etc.)

One have NEEDS, then one Dreams, Hopes, Desire about fulfilling those NEEDS. These are the essence of the MOTIVATION. However the innate capacity to do or be (ABILITY) determines if the one will take some ACTION to fulfill his DREAMS, HOPES (explanation: while dreams are unlimited expectations full of "what ifs", Hopes require a "desired expectation" or the expectation that something will happen if nothing goes wrong) and DESIRES (explanation: the awareness that something better exists). It is the convergence/divergence of the DREAMS, HOPES, DESIRES vs ABILITY that creates HAPPINES or FRUSTRATIONS.
The simple fact is that all animals including humans, primal NEED is to SURVIVE, to continue to live. To do that they need to take actions. Trading Markets is one of the ACTIONS people trade to profit in money, to be able to fulfill their Dreams, Hopes, Desires - related to their NEEDS. It is how GREED could manifest it self in the trading. On the other side is the FEAR (of loss). It is a manifestation of the FEAR concerning ones Economic security and safety, connected with the PRIMAL INSTICT to SURVIVE (continue to live, preserve life) and it is why the FEAR is so sincere and strong emotion.

NOTE: I'm not a psychologist.

Last edited by idejan : 13-08-2005 at 21:09. Reason: Quotation inside quotation were not shown in my post.

My Elliott Wave Charts - Page 3 - MoneyTec Traders Community Forum

Wave Principle And Forces Behind The Markets

Hello everyone,

In my previous posts I have started writing on something I believe to be essential, and even that at this point it may seem confusing how it relates to Trading Markets, I'll hopefully come to that at the end.

I have previously talked about Needs, Dreams-Hopes-Desires (I'll use the word Expectations for simplicity from now on), Abilities, Actions and Results. And it seem like a one way road.

And to the some point it is.

But first let me try to recap and then continue.

All human have same fundamental NEEDS, but develop different Dreams, Hopes, Desires (Expectations) by the surge to satisfy their NEEDS. To satisfy those Needs man should obviously do something, ie - take Action(s). Expectations are the MOTIVATION (the fuel) necessary for one to take ACTIONS.

Now, For the purpose of performing Actions, we would need to develop or adopt a certain method, or general set of tools and guidelines suitable for that Action(s). Our innate potentials, to accomplish either what is physical or mental, those row latent capacities or abilities, talent, physical ability, intellectual and emotional aptitude, ie SKILLS, determine the APPROACH(es) we develop. On a higher level APPROACH determines if on is a BE-ER or a DO-ER or if his general approach to problem solving is to adopt him self to the situation or environment or to adopt the environment to himself.

And we now enter the real world and start to practice our Actions with our Ability using our Approach, driven by Expectations derived from our Needs.

So we act and interact with others (their actions) both mental and physical.

The cumulative effect of that action and interaction in observing and/or participating in mental and physical activities until they become familiar represents our EXPERIENCE. And that's how our Ability get's it's practical component. But just because those activities become a second nature, does not mean we are necessarily good at them. It is the innate Skills and the Experience together, that determine the our real ABILITIES. So every day aggregate activities (actions, interactions) are the building bricks of men's Experience determining that way his REAL ABILITIES.

So what that cumulative effect, ie Experience, really does is making us constantly evaluate and redevelop or adopt our Approach. The side effect of that process is that when ever we feel we are not able or feel being able for more, we also evaluate and redefine our Expectations. If we feel ABLE then our Expectations grow and opposite. If how ever our real Abilities luck of either Skills or Experience we could easily end frustrated, since our Ability could not fulfill our Expectations.

So driven by our expectations to satisfy our needs we develop Approach and start practicing our actions, by what we interact with other people (practicing their actions too), we build up an Experience, which then helped in determine our Real Abilities by adding a practical side to our innate Skills, and also made us constantly evaluate our Approach and Expectations.

To make it simple in a way if our Experience says we CAN and we than say GO, and if it says we can't we say STOP.

In that combined effort of our Skills and Experience in the pursuit of our expectations, as I've said before, we are not necessarily good at what we do. So we experience both Pleasure of success and Disappointment of failure on our pursuit of Happiness. It is how accumulated interactions, help developing ATTITUDE.

Attitude is the manner in which we proceed with our Approach. We may be hard driven, cool, assertive, but in general we could have a positive or negative attitude.

And here we are to the point were we can say that:

It is the Cumulative manor (Attitude) with which we all proceed with our developed and adopted methodology of doing and being (Approach) in our Constant pursuit of fulfilling our Expectations which derive from our Needs, that creates the Social Trends and Tendencies (General Sentiment).

That is the place where the Wave Principle comes in.

Since there are number of sources on the Wave Principle, I will not go into explaining what has already been explained by people with much more knowledge and understanding of the Wave Principle, but in some of my next posts, I will try to make some practical observation about trading it.
I've tried to give as possible simple explanation of very simple and intrinsic issues, but it seems that the most simple things take more time to explain, as for to me an unknown reason people do not accept simplicity. It seems to me that most probable reason for that however could prove to be the constant need of men to be Clever, and like simplicity insults cleverness. It is probably there where our constant need to complicate an obviously simple things derives. At least it's how it appears to be.
ID

Last edited by idejan : 14-08-2005 at 23:18. Reason: typo

My Elliott Wave Charts - Page 3 - MoneyTec Traders Community Forum

Forces Behind the Market

As I said I'll accept any invitation to exchange opinions in a discussion thread, and since daily recommendation threads are not a discussion I really feel uncomfortable discussing there.
So here is post as a continuation of previous and as an answer to Noor, who showed very constructive approach and with that I believe is a person who is willing to share his knowledge and experience.
(read his post @ Sell EUR/USD in Daily trade recommendation)
_______________

Hi Noor
My post is nothing more then a presentation of a different view on the forces behind the market, so I highly appreciate your constructive effort...

I'd like to add something to your explanation about divergence.

di•verge (also di-) -verged', -verg'ing, -vergence
- to go or move in different directions from a common point or from each other; branch off [paths
that diverge] (Webster)

But what's behind.
If you PUSH something it will always go in the direction opposite of the PUSH and as other forces
start to involve it will drift away of the path. The PUSH is divergent. On the other side, if you
PULL something (attach a string and pull) no matter how other forces influence the object in other
directions, it will always be going in your direction, more and more directly. So, PULL is
Convergent.
This are the two always co-existing fundamentals of the Universe (Push-Pull, Repulsion-Attraction).
The indicators that you've mentioned (for the simplicity, lets say) are trying to measure that.
(RSI and Stochastic (and Momentum) are Most known Oscillators and Moving Average Convergence
Divergence or MACD is a A trend-following momentum indicator and it could also be added to
oscillators group of indicators. This is a very simplified explanation and you should all find a
very good explanations on different market indicators at Investopedia).
As for the evidence on my view... But first congratulation to Iris on his work approaching 2000
posts. I was not aware that he has developed his own Price/Time theory. I admit I'm not very familiar with his work.
I've seen he is giving
signals in his thread and somehow assumed that that's it, that there is no explanation on how he
came up with those numbers. Never went through the posts from the beginning.
I don't know if you've read the addition published in my thread, since I believe it provides some
explanation on my view, and I'm not sure what will be a good evidence, to prove that view.
Personally I did not post anything here to prove something, but to present a different view. While
the concept of Driving a car is proven, different people will drive a car differently (producing
different results in a race for an example) and some will not even be able to drive. Even the
simplest task given to different people will create different results. It's why Forecasting Market
and Trading that Forecasts is very different thing, and above all different traders will have
different results with following same forecasts.
I don't however believe that anyone on this planet, no matter how genius, could possibly
comprehend all those incomprehensible number of inter-actions of continuous pulls and discontinues
pushes happening every single moment around the planet that influence every single aspect of our
life. It is why this is a game of Probabilities and not certainty.
All human have same fundamental NEEDS, but develop different Dreams, Hopes, Desires by the surge to
satisfy their NEEDS. Expectations are the MOTIVATION (the fuel) necessary for one to take ACTIONS,
and they all take different actions (since they all have different approach, or if they share the
same approach they all have different attitudes) to fulfill their Dreams, Hopes, Desires
(expectations).
It depends mostly on the fuel how far one will reach in fulfilling his expectations. ACTIONS then
produce RESULTS that are the reflection of those Expectations. It depends on the MOTIVATION and the
ABILITY how close to EXPECTATIONS are this reflections, or the RESULTS. It's something I always
argue with people, that it's not really important what you think and what you feel (relative to
others), since what you do, your actions are the real reflection of what you are. You will very
often be fooling your self how much you want something, but you should very easily measure "how
much" with looking at your actions, or what you do toward that wants.
It's now know that Activity and not Material particles are the basics of the Universe.

As for the view on the market and it's direction, I've covered that in detail in my posts so
there's no need to repeat my self here.
It is getting late, so hopefully we will be able to continue exchanging knowledge and experience in
our combined effort to take profit from the Market. I am very grateful to your constructive
approach, since I believe that there is always something new to learn. Helping others to learn,
helps you to learn even more.
Best to all,
ID

Last edited by idejan : 14-08-2005 at 02:58. Reason: typo

My Elliott Wave Charts - Page 4 - MoneyTec Traders Community Forum

Wave Principle

The reason People don't like Wave Principle is that it is not a mechanical trading system. The other reason is quite similar since it says that it is too subjective.
But then the majority of people who practice Wave Principle are trying to use it mechanically.
_______________________

And now for what I think is important about implementing Wave Principle.
In previous posts I've tried to point the fact that it is the Actions that move the world, but that it's our attitude (positive or negative) that greatly influences that actions and with so the results of that Activities.
It is the General Social Mood that determines the performances of the Society and it's Economy as a part.

The Wave Principle is exactly about that. Social, or Crowd behavior moves up and down (from positive to negative) in recognizable patterns. It is from this discovery that the market analysis method was developed now know as Elliott Wave Principle.
How good will someone use it, depends on learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, he will be able to avoid becoming a part of it.

And while a careful reader reads: learning THE PATTERNS OF CROWD BEHAVIOR, most of the traders read: LEARN TO RECOGNIZE and LABEL WAVE PATTERNS.
Although it seems that those two are the same thing, it isn't. The difference is not in the method.
While the first will try to reveal the NATURE of the waves, and with that, the real forces behind the scene, the other, will try to recognize the geometry of the forming patterns and label them, obeying the rules and guidelines. That's a mechanical approach and has nothing to do with the Wave Principle.
It hasn't because of the simple fact that the human behavior, although moving in recognizable patterns which obey certain mathematical relations, which are represented by the correlations of PRICE (the indicator of the behavior) and TIME, is not a predetermined neither by Time or Price.

IT DOES NOT REPEAT and could change. It is called evolution. We all change, and we influence others to change, same as they influence us. Our mental, emotional and physical "support and resistance" lines change every single day (every second). We are dynamic system and an organic one, not a mechanical.
The wave Principle can prove good in determing the Most probable market direction and is briliant since you could also determine the CHANGE in the Behavior. It gives you a direction. Not a trading signals. Changes in behavior take time. People don't lose faith and positive attitude suddenly as they do not recover from pesimism by night. That's why it is very important to know how to recognize the nature of the patterns on your chart. And it is a different psychology on a different time frame. It's like wondering arround the streets and looking from the top of the hill.
_______________________

What wave Principle uses is the PRICE, where the PRICE it self is an INDICATOR of the agregate Social Behavior and MOOD. SO PRICE it self IS A MEASURE of SOMETHING and NOT a subject of measurement it self. (it could be but it's irrelevant to this) Wave Principle is about knowing the true Nature of the Waves, or what's beneath. The price is a matterial reflection of the Social Behavior, so what the geometry of price/time tries to reveal is not PRICE in TIME, but where the Social Behavior is and Where it is heading.
Would I be able to assess my possible future earnings (Price) by simply looking at my previous historical earnings, or by looking in my readiness, my mental, emotional and physical fitness to cope with LIFE, recognizing my true "expectations", using my real abilities and finding the best possible way fullfiling them (my behavior) all at right time?

_______________________

Let's imagine that we are about to go on a holliday. We live in a city "A" and we are to go to Place "B" by car.
We get a road map and the first thing we do is try to find where we are on the map and then where the place B is, we draw a straight line connecting this two points. Now by just a simple look on the map we instantly have a clear picture of where we are and where we would get eventualy. By observing the map more carfuly (Analysing) we start drawing the path we will go trough. While we easily drown a straith line connecting those two points on the map (chart) now we recognize that we will have to travel somewhat different path which will include a lot of straight lines (trends) and quite a few turns (corrections). We will most certainly need to get out to other main roads that somehow are not going in our direction (larger corrections/reversals) just to get to the point where we will get to our road which will lead as to the place B.
Well what we have here is an expectation (to have a vacation), which induced an action (we started preparation and hopefully got there) for which we developed a plan (approach) an adopted already proven plans (car transportation, road map for directions etc). So eventualy we pack our bags and start the journey. We have anticipated the path, approximate time of arrival based on speed etc, and some other important elements of the journey with our analysis, we printed a perfect plan and we now only have to drive from point A to point B to get there.

Let us now assume that the plan is so perfect that it includes all the possible turns, pointed within milimeter with GPS, an includes all the ralationships of speed and distances.
Now could you drive your car to the destination by simply looking at the speedometer following speed (price) and distance (time) and following that perfect map (on GPS)? Not even if the roads where empty. The weather, people in the car- your company, the car you drive, the man at the gas station and milion other things you could've never possibly dream and yet to anticipate. And even you. Your abilities (physical, mental etc.) are not a matematical constant that can easily be predicted and calculated. Or are you?
So even with having a clear recognized pattern of behavior and a perfect plan (we recognized we are heading from point A to point B and recognized the pattern which we will travel developed a perfect radmap) and with so many people already driven the same path over and over again, you could not drive eyes shot. There's always something that could change your plan. Something always does. Just hopefully you would arrive at your destination with godspeed.

Thank you for bearing with me all this way, and I apologize being so boring.
But only if humans were a rational beings.
Best to all,
Dejan

Market Update

2006-09-24T18:47:00.000+02:00

Hi,
Here is just a small part of my notes I write for my own reference.
Pictures are bit compressed but they are clear and readable.
This are continuation of previous weeks notes from the Google group I've mentioned few post back, which will be available for a while before I delete them.
You will also find notes on 16 more pairs. I publish them by mail directly from the charting program and it's a life saving option.
This Blog somehow does not accept the same mails and it complicates the whole thing.
While I don't mind sharing my notes and thoughts, I'm still not very sure if it is useful to anybody.
Any way, until I find a solution that will save me time preparing and publishing my notes, I'll try keeping this blog live with at least few views published once a week over the weekend.
Thank you for your mails and interest in my analysis, and I hope to be able to spend more time answering all of your questions.

EURUSD

I mentioned last week that I don't quite like what I see on the chart, so I reconsidered my view.
I made a slightly different count from the one in the last video analysis I published, hm when was that, 21 July, quite some time. Any way here it how I see.
So, I have two possible target areas on the upside to finish that B on the Daily if not finished at Friday daily bar high. On a break of 1.2831 last Daily bar high, first up is 1.2872/77 and second is close to the previous top 1.2926/37/48.
Break down below 1.2725 to ease the upward pressure and below 1.2632 to confirm possible C of (A) down.

And here is the Hourly chart for more detail.
I personally think it is a top, but caution is needed.
idejan

USDJPY
It is on target (see prev. post and for more targets too) but could end little lower, probably 115.84/53 to continue up...
idejan

NZDUSD
Intraday probably lower to 0.654<>0.65
There are slightly different scenarios (EW counts) than the one on the chart in which we could have a Minute or Minor top.
If so than the correction could go lower than 0.65, to possibly 0.63.
I still think it will finish little higher before it makes the second wave 2 or B. (see next chart weekly)
idejan

Here is the weekly chart and that nice confluence of Fib 50% Retracement line and MA resistance

AUDUSD
It made high 0.7580 and still above the green MA. (also see weekly)
(prev. bar on the weekly low @ 0.7483; red MA @ 0.7482 green @ 0.7490 and last bar low @ 0.7494, red @ 0.7479 green 0.7491).
This is the support needed to break to confirm down targets. First most probable target down is 0.7279/70 to continue down to 0.7 and below to 0.6792/81/72 targets...
idejan

My On line Notes

2006-09-14T22:45:00.000+02:00

Hello all,
it's been a while since my last post.
I got an answer from google team that I won't be able to have my Analysis organized in topics at my Google group if I publish them by sending them by mail, as I do now directly from the charting program (nice feature in ProRealTime charts).

Since I don't have time preparing first and then posting them later with a reply (which is the only way they can be organized in topics), I decided to delete the group I've been using as my on line notebook. No use of it if it's not organized and easy to followup.

I downloaded all my notes, so now I'm making it available to you before I delete it. If it can be of any use to you at all. Not really educational and calls are mostly expired or about to expire...

http://groups.google.com/group/waveid

idejan

Steorn

2006-08-22T00:22:00.000+02:00

Something very interesting to see.

Steorn

EWT Ramblings with Bear

2006-08-17T13:42:00.000+02:00

Hi Bear,

I've read your conversation with modi on FXS thread the other day and I won't say if he is right or wrong, or how good is his approach, but instead, with the things he says, question arises if he speaks about EWT or rather to some new approach?! That is simply because from that little I've read and from seeing his counts, it seems that he (they) changed some of the fundamental principles of EWT and developed new breed. :) This is of course just an impression and not an argumented statement though, so I could very easily be wrong. I'm open minded to other approaches and uses of EW and I've said many times it is not the tool but the hand that uses the tool that will produce the results. So the comment is just of a theoretical and not of practical nature.
You also know that I agree with the idea that Forex pairs long terms cycles "could be seen" as representing continuous sideways movements. Unfortunately there isn't sufficient record backward (wave II can take up to 9 times the time needed to complete wave one), neither we will live so long to scientifically argument this :)
Although I grow the same impression that it is less likely to see some single currency hitting 0 (zero), no matter how improbable it is not impossible.
Anyway, Your conversation at FXS thread got me into rethinking the whole idea more deeply.
I have thoughts about that but never got to the point really contemplating them into an argument :)

Considering your question posted at fxs place about EWT and Forex sessions (US, EU and Asian)
Think of it this way.
As you know EWaves have fractal nature. Should I continue? :)
Of course not, but since I decided making it public post I will. So this part of the message is for those not that familiar...
Let's see then. Even on the same floor, every single trader's "mood" produces behavior which is reflected on the small time frames. Then you can see the cumulative behavioral results on daily and weekly charts.
I believe everyone get it even by now so no need to elaborate but OK, just in case something interesting comes out of this ramblings.
The only difference is in the accumulation time of single nano-fractals. While other markets have working hours, FOREX is 24 hours. It is not a question of place (and with electronic trading this is insignificant in other markets too) but of time (frames).
Time (frames) represents the accumulated behavior seen in patterns. That's why I said few times at fxs place (and you and I agree on this) that EWs are more accurate on larger time frames.
Now more significant difference in Forex is the fact that you trade pairs.
When a pair moves up or down, that could be because of few reasons:

If EURUSD is falling, that could be because:

1.USD is rising; EUR is falling.

2.USD is rising, EUR is holding steady

3.USD is rising, EUR is rising but slower than USD

4.USD is holding steady, EUR is falling

5.USD is falling, EUR is falling but faster than USD

So, there could be two different ways of how "behavior" in Forex can be seen.

1. People in general are bullish/bearish to a single currency (the above example)

or (nowadays)

2. People are bullish/bearish to a FX pair

Now the first way is the way one should observe FOREX. The pairs (one pair) them selfs are instruments or products which banks are selling to make money, and are not a true reflection of a real "mood" toward some single currency, instead they are a representation (summation) of the moods toward two currencies relative to each other. That is why we can't see the "true behavior" for the single currencies just from the pattern of one FX pair. But then, it doesn't necessarily matters (to many) since we are interested and we trade pairs. One could analyze FX from a single currency strength perspective (USDX, by assembling own indexes or like me building a RSI basket indicator :)...) but not necessarily. :)

Nowadays however, there are probably more and more participants which are seeing FOREX pairs in a more simple way (like stocks or commodities i.e.) and don't bother or even comprehend beyond that.

To make it really a ramble I'll just finish with this conclusion:
At the end, nothing of this really matters.
The only really important thing in any venture is neither your abilities neither the tools you have. But the level of confidence you have in both your skills and your tools. First two are prerequisites, but without the confidence you are not getting anywhere. You will either not do anything or produce poor results because of the lack or low confidence...
Build your confidence. Throw in some Money Management, it will help you. :)

Bear, tnx for your mail, hope everything's fine home, and a warm hi to bear family.
Dejan

PS. Bear, too bad fxs thread is not quite an appropriate place for this kind of ramblings, so too bad all those visiting there won't see it (or perhaps not :), they are saved from bore theoretical punishment :D )
Any way I'm making it public in the Blog.

Apology

2006-07-24T09:17:00.000+02:00

Hi all,
I made a very stupid and unpleasant spelling error in the previous post (which is corrected now) and I would like to apology to the guy from Poland for the mistake.
It is our Cyrillic habit of writing as we speak, and misfortunate similarity of certain English words that contributed to making the mistake.
So once again I apology to my friend from Poland.
Dejan

For my friends

2006-07-23T21:59:00.000+02:00

Hi
This post is dedicated to my dear friends.
At the time I decided to move from MTec, my friend Stojce prepared this Blog, but also a Google Group and a Forum, for me to decide what will be the most appropriate medium for my ramblings.
Since I was not getting much of a feedback and participation at MTec, and that is why I decided to move out, creating a Forum didn't sounded like a good idea to me. Groups are also fine if there is a collaboration or if you want to limit access to selected people (members. So Brain Logging sounded most appropriate at that time.
Well, a month or so ago, I started to use that group stojce created before, as a kind of a notebook, a place were I send short comments and Charts from many different pairs and Indexes, usually at the end of the week. It is not much of an analysis, rather just my quick notes, drawn on the charts. I started dong that as a coincidence of two cozy things: one is the option of ProRealTime Charts to mail the chart directly from the application, and the second is the option to publish posts in Google group by mail. Since I use to look at some charts available with ProRealTime (not Forex), I started sending them just as notes, that will be accessible to me at any time from any place, and by the way, they will be automatically organized.
Now, since I'm going on a vacation in a few days, I decided I should make this notes available to my friends and to few of the people that were kind to share their thoughts, questions or just to say hi. I appreciated, and you know, your questions were always very stimulating for me. I'm doing this just to keep you busy while I'm gone :).

Few persons that I don't have a contact with, can also send their mails so I can add them. They are regular and frequent visitors to my blog:
the one from Argentina, one from Singapore and the one from Pleven, Bulgaria.
If the visits I get from Sofia (Bulgaria) are from Eftim, I'd would be glad to add you too. The one with the Forexmasters nickname can send mail too. The guy from Poland, I don't know your name, I presume it is main1 from MTec, confirm by mail if it is you.
This is for those very few fellows Macedonians that are visiting my Blog, ќе ми биде мило ако ме контактирате за да може да си помуабетиме на темава.

That's it from me, I'm off for two weeks, warming my old bones in a warm beach sand.
Take care,
IDejan

PS. For those few I mentioned, I expect your mail by Monday evening (GMT+1) when I'll be sending the link...

PSS. You may find it funny and laughing, but it is really much easier to me to write comments about markets in English then in my Macedonian (practically no trading terminology..) that's why even my private notes are in english... don't ask me how much time it took me to write those few analysis of few stocks from MSE (Macedonian Stock Exchange)

NEW video analysis

2006-07-21T19:39:00.000+02:00

Hi
I produced two short videos, one on EURUSD and the other on USDJPY.
You can find them here:

EURUSD

USDJPY

21 July Daily Update

2006-07-21T11:37:00.000+02:00

EUR
...[A possible break below 1.247 low to 1.2394/38 (current price 1.2489)...first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893]...
Current daily high at 1.2678 but looking at the momentum it looks like it could make to the above levels 1.2707<>1.2715

JPY
...[possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down]... (current price 117.65)
Made a high 117.87 to reverse down, current low at 115.91, most probable bottom at 115.68/62. Below that 115.10<>114.89...

AUD
...[to bounce from 0.7434]... (current price 0.7445)
bounce was from 0.7405 not a clear targets here, probably not higher than 0.757<>0.759

GBP
...[probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35)]... (current price 1.8270)
Now right on 1.855 target (current high 1.8555). If higher, then possibly up to 1.8623

In general, you are now hunting an Minor* to Intermediate* top (On xxxUDS) and bottom (on USDxxx) pairs, meaning that if you position right, you can expect very very nice ride down (and it could serve even for the Primary* move down).
If I'm right, only the next move, and only on GBPUSD would be more than 1,200 pips. So no need to overexpose your self with huge leverage. (targets down after competition of the current action)
Looking at EUR it seems that this correction up could only be the first leg of a correction so we can expect one more down and one more up by the 24-31 of august (possibly as I mentioned above, to retest 1.286 to 1.2893)
However, it is my opinion that hunting this top/bottom would be very very rewarding. If played properly of course. If not, chances are (since it is a wave B) you get clean swiped.

I'd appreciate to hear your thoughts on the current market situation.

Take care,
idejan

*explanation for those that are not familiar with Elliott Wave terms
Minor translates to - Monthly, Weekly, Daily to 240 min moves
Intermediate - Monthly, Weekly, Daily
Primary - Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly

19 July Update

2006-07-19T13:38:00.000+02:00

EUR A possible break below 1.247 low to 1.2394/38 (current price 1.2489)

JPY possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down... (current price 117.65)

AUD to bonce from 0.7434 (current price 0.7445)

GBP probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35 (current price 1.8270)

18 July Update, part 2

2006-07-18T17:32:00.000+02:00

AUDUSD
It topped an hour after I posted. We still need a confirmation for the previously posted targets 0.7208 and below 0.7060/10 to 0.6860 Second leg is still forming (H4 chart the drop was first leg...) and it's not finished yet (meaning a possible one more move up before a continuation down) Next Minute move down would target a min of 0.7420 but more probably lower 0.7332/24...

NZDUSD
Right in the published target box. It entered into the box, lower band of the box, not sure it's over yet. We still need more clues for the longer term picture to unfold.
*GOLD* and *CrudeOil* I'm very confident it topped and we are about to see a significant decline (to 500 and below). Same for the CrudeOil (probably 50).

ID

PS. I wrote and sent this by mail to my blog around 16.30 and it is still not published. this was the first time I'm trying posting by mail. The first update (previous post) had few minutes delay (around 10min) but the second is now an hour late and still not even arrived.
That's why I've decided to post my update directly here while it could still be relevant since it is intraday comment :)
So mind that it was writen an hour before the time of the stamp here and if by any chance another copy of it appears later that means that my mail finaly arrived :)
I'll check later.

18 July Update

2006-07-18T15:59:00.000+02:00

EURUSD
Bounced just above 1.2485
If this low (1.2495) holds, then first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893
I don't expect it to be a nice IM sharp move up, but rather it will be slow sideways to up move.

USDJPY
(last update 6 July)
nice takeoff from that last update and right from the expected levels for a ~370 pips move.
Now a break below 116.65 would be a good indication for a retrace to a 115.63/32 and a break below that would be a good for 114.10<>113.70
But... Looking at the pattern of this recent rely, I suspect of a possible one more move up to finish it. Possibly not higher than 117.6, I was expecting 117.30/35. If higher than 117.6 then possibly 118.4

ID

(other pairs to follow in a while.
press CTRL+F5 for to refresh your browser.)

17 July update

2006-07-17T15:44:00.000+02:00

EURUSD
Way below the expected target area, and although it could still be a valid count, the alternative gray count seems to be unfolding, which as I mentioned in fxs thread on MTec, would mean continued sideways trading in wave B, before we can expect a drop down to 1.22 and below...
Since this drop went this deep, it provides a wider range for the next move up below the 1.298 top.
Intermediate bias is still bearish, but I expect this drop to end soon, probably not below 1.2485, to bounce up to 1.2750 and probably not higher then 1.2897, but we should wait the market to develop some indications before we can project possible targets up.
ID

NZDUSD update

2006-07-11T21:59:00.000+02:00

NZDUSD
last post on this pair was accurate call for a bottom, and turned to be a good buy call (~0.5960/50) for ~200 pips at current market price (0.6167).
Now watch 0.6198<>0.6233 for a possible retrace, but I would expect it to possibly go up to 0.6269<>0.6336
Still no clear answers to those questions. we need to let the market develop more clues, before we can have the answers.
I'm still not really convinced we have a bottom...
I'll try preparing more detailed analysis during the weekend.
I also consider continuing my video analysis series.
ID

AUDUSD daily update

2006-07-11T21:32:00.000+02:00

AUDUSD topping, but it could go up to 0.7573<>0.7592
Depending on your strategy you could short from here and add if it goes higher with stop above 0.7592 or hunt the top from here with tight stops.
If this plays true, min target 0.7208
next targets 0.7060/10 to 0.6860 (most probable min target to finish larger correction). Below that 0.66
Nice confluence with Gold, which was contained in my target area for a while but broke above it today. That made me reconsider a possible break little higher on AUD too. Nevertheless it is either a top or very close to a top, which represents a nice R/R opportunity.

This is a great Risk to Reward opportunity.

Take care
idejan

EURUSD update

2006-07-10T23:00:00.000+02:00

On the chart is the update of the previously published chart.
It shows a possible Running Flat (wave [b]), and if the recent fall wave (c) continues lower of (a) it will be an Extended Flat. Of course break below 1.2478 will confirm C down... On the other side, break above 1.2980 will invalidate this scenario.
Best to all
ID

Gold and Crude

2006-07-06T17:27:00.000+02:00

Nice confluence to USD view gives a look at GOLD chart and the CrudeOil chart.
Gold is about to finish a wave B up around 632.80<>636.45 to continue down to somewhere around 500.00<>437.50 probably 449.20

I expect same with Crude Oil, which could top somewhere around 76.56<>78.13 and correct down to around 50.00

This could be considered US Dollar positive.

idejan

AUD

2006-07-06T17:11:00.000+02:00

AUD
if it breaks (very possible) above 0.7460 and 0.7472 it will most probably target 0.7477/7507 to continue down... just broke above 0.7460
let see...

ID

USDJPY takeoff level

2006-07-06T17:00:00.000+02:00

Look for a possible USDJPY takeoff somewhere from around 113.80/50/00
It will need to break below 109 to negate my view, but breaking below 113 would get my attention.
Immediate break above 116 confirms next upper targets.
ID

Update July 6th, 2006

2006-07-06T15:59:00.000+02:00

Short update on EURUSD
It is a closer look on what was presented on that picture few days ago.
As I said before, we see a possible ended B, but on the other detail I'm presenting a possible scenario where B is still on...

On the next chart we see that scenario, which I believe is very possible, some more stop hunting before the big dive down in the next C down to finish (A) in the target area shown on the above picture.
However, a significant break below that target area for wave [b] could seriously argue about wave B being fiished, and the break below the bottom of wave A will confirm we are in a wave C down.

Take care,
idejan

Short Update

2006-07-04T00:48:00.000+02:00

AUD did not made it to lower levels but instead made a retracement right from the levels at the time of the previous post, and right into the posted target area of 0.7400/50 (actual high 0.7458) (see sumary below)

EURUSD
..."If so, then we can expect wave [b] to target 1.2640 to 1.2780 but probably 1.2664<>1.2717 to continue down in a wave [c] to finish first Minor wave A down, probably to 1.22/21 possibly lower to 1.1960/20."...

Finished little above the target area, and now it could be a finished wave [b] as suggested, or it could be just the first wave (a) of that [b], which would mean more sideways to up movement (or more precisely, wave (b) down then wave (c) up to finish [b]).
(see sumary below)

USDJPY
no point updating since I notice that I missed publishing intraday targets for the correction I was forecasting (...I believe that we are about to see a retracement in a wave [b] Minute of the first Minor wave A...)
(see sumary below)

NZDUSD and USDCAD last post still valid nothing to add and I'm sorry I don't have time posting shorter term on this pairs.

Summary
So in general, it is quite possible that recent correction in USD pairs (USD depreciation) could not be finished and could test the previous levels (highs/lows respectively in different pairs), but it would be just what my friend Joseph used to say "a sucker B" which would not travel beyond last tops/bottoms.
See previous picture of EURUSD we are in that unlabeled small red retracement wave [b] up before the next [c] drop down to finish wave (A) (blue).
Hunt this top from the current levels with tight stops, or from little above, than either ride all the way down, or take some profit at the end of wave (A) leave the rest for the ride down, and then add again at the end of wave (B) (again hunt it with tight sl)
There are many considering a 5th wave up, but sorry I can't agree with it. If somebody shows me how can we label that wave 1 (substructure) I would retreat me stand. But I can't even agree with the sub structure of wave 3 being acceptable for labeling it wave 3. I'm talking about the whole move up from Nov low to May high, somebody considering it a possible IM wave up and expecting a continuation in a wave 5.

Best to all,
ID

Market Direction Jun 28

2006-06-29T02:38:00.000+02:00

AUD
Pay attention to 0.7220/00 for a possible retracement to 0.7400/50 before it continues down to min. of 0.6860<>0.6600 to finish the whole correctional pattern from march 2005 and continue up to min 0.9 possible target zone from 0.88<>0.98.
Immediate move above 0.7335 could indicate possible minute bottom at 0.7269 for a retrace to mentioned .7400<>.7450

EURUSD
Current bottom at 1.2478 is right in the box for a D3 (Double three) (y), both by time and price, so we have a very possible finished Minute [a] and a started wave [b] of the first Minor wave A down of a larger intermediate (A) (possibly it could be that we should use one degree higher for all waves and it will finish a Primary [C] wave).
If so, then we can expect wave [b] to target 1.2640 to 1.2780 but probably 1.2664<>1.2717 to continue down in a wave [c] to finish first Minor wave A down, probably to 1.22/21 possibly lower to 1.1960/20.
Larger Intermediate wave (A) (or Primary [C]) to target min 1.15 but possibly lower to 1.1<>1.09 even 0.9 but I'm not that bullish on Dollar yet :). Let market give us clues step by step.
*forgot to add this on the chart: wave [b] is right to the pip on the 61.8 fib of wave [a] and just a little above 161.8 fib extension of (A) from the (B) for the wave (C) of that [b].

USDJPY
Well my upper target level was overshot by some 60 pips (115.70/116.10) and now looking from the 109 bottom it is into the upper target area for a finished pattern, but looking on the last sub wave pattern it shows a possibility of extending higher to 117.5/118/118.5, but I don't expect this to happen, and I believe that we are about to see a retracement in a wave [b] Minute of the first Minor wave A of a larger Intermediate (Y) to finish a Primary wave [A] around 128<>145 by the end of the year. It is the first leg of a wave c Cycle correction of the Supercycle correction wave (b) from April 1995 bottom which is to finish in the next 3 years into 144/170/190/210 target area, which is looking way too far into the future :) and we better let market guide us. Temptation :)
(I'm aware the pictures would have been much clearer, but patience please.)

NZDUSD
Attention required. It is into the most probable target area so we can have a finished drop here, but it could finish lower as I published, around 0.586.
Questions remain to be answered:
- will this finish the whole pattern and we are to see a continuation up?
- or it will finish just the first wave of larger correction, so we will see a 3 wave correctional wave [B] up and then wave [C] down?
I hope to be able to have that answer very soon. The structure of the next move up will give us some clues.

USDCAD
just shortly
If we stick to the view that the drop from Jan 2002 top is IM wave down then we have more on the downside as I've published in some of the previous posts. Or below 1.0000
If we consider that Currencies don't develop IM wave of a SuperCycle degree, or that they tend to move sideways, then USDCAD could be ready for a reversal up. A move above 1.18 would certainly be a very good argument for that.
Anyhow, we can expect to see a move to 1.14<>1.15 before we can decide on a most probable scenario. A break above this area will be a good indication that we could have a longer term bottom formed.
Of course, a break below the 1.093 bottom will confirm my expectation that we could see USDCAD much lower, 1.06<>0.9

Not in a shape yet. It took me too much time preparing this, it is late and I'll leave GBP and Gold for some other post.

Take care all of you there
idejan

This could be the right time to buy USD!

2006-06-18T20:28:00.000+02:00

Hello everyone,
It's been quite some time since my last post, and I thank all of you that were digging this blog all this months making it being of some use.
I just sent email, that I'm republishing here, to my dear friend Joseph and I thought you should know too that in my opinion we are sitting on a critical juncture...
Any way, it was Joseph who draw attention to this juncture early at the begining of the year.
Here is the message:

Hi Joseph,
I just updated my data and opened my charts to see what was happening while I was gone. I'll need some time to get back into the zone.
First, just a short on EUR and once again my feeling is that it is impossible to see EURUSD going above 1.3
So, the recent top could be it, and we could be in a wave c down of a larger degree (intermediate). That could be a hell of a ride down.
1.15 min. but way down to 1.11<>1.09 if not lower.On a smaller time frame, we could be in a Minor wave A down of the larger c down, with first smaller wave A of that minor A finished with this last drop. This recent move up is to give more answers but I can see it's target around 1.2700/50 being a nice shorting opportunity. Of course it could retest the top above that. I'm not very found to EUR this days.

But on the other hand, you know my favorite is JPY so I am putting a little extra effort into it. This recent move up on an hourly is to finish 115.70/116.10 to finish first wave up of a continuation up in wave y of larger wave a to 128<>145 probably 128.7/134/140.9/143.65 by the end of the year. It would finish that first wave a of a larger wave (y) up to 144/170/190/210 to finish in the next 3 years. So, the next small correction down would provide excellent risk to reward opportunity to buy USDJPY, around 113.4/113 for those that missed the opportunity to enter lower.

AUDUSD down to .68<>.66; NZD .5860<>.5260 (a slight chance that it could go up to .64/.66 (.6530) first); SGD not clear with this one but it is right in the box (both by time and price) for a finished larger correction and possible continuation up or at least a second leg up to around 1.8<>1.9 but you should know better on this one :)

Buying the next dips in most of the USDxxx pairs for a nice ride up could be a good advice. :) (opposite in xxxUSD pairs of course)
Of course it does not apply to CAD and you know my view on it :)

I will need some time to recover and to see if I will be able to keep posting at some decent pace.
Once again, thanks to all of you.
Take care,
ID

Announcement

2006-04-18T23:09:00.000+02:00

Hi
I see that few still visit this blog although there are no regular updates.
I just want to inform all of you that I won't be publishing any new updates at least for a month.
Best regards to all of you,
IDejan

USDCAD

2006-04-09T21:26:00.000+02:00

Here is my longer term view on Canadian Dollar, the one in blue is published before and the green one is the alternative one.
Taking only the drop from may 2006 it indicates possible not finished pattern(s) with more to the south. SO no matter what the longer term view is, intermediate view is still down to probably 1.1 if not 0.9

However, this pair has been delivering a lot of surprises, so I would not rule out that green alternative and a possible Minor move up to finish that green (x).

Crude made much higher than I expected, but it is still into the channel.
My view on Crude is down to $50/b, but as Joseph pointed in one of his myth busters episodes, it depends how you see CAD correlates with Crude...

ID

AUDUSD

2006-04-05T22:00:00.000+02:00

This is a possible Intermediate view on AUDUSD.
Alternative in gray indicates possible finished correction and possible continuation up.
I however expect little more on the downside. Possibly .6958/48 to .6729
ID

NZD call explained on video

2006-03-30T16:40:00.000+02:00

Hi
I just published a video explaining that good call on NZDUSD I've made on 21 of February 2006.
Bear in mind that this is a selected successful call, after the fact, (typical for services :) ).
I've chosen this call as a good example of a nice C wave.
There are and will be calls that would not work as this one. Although there were good confirmations for this particular one:
It drop below Wave A end point (low) and below 61.8 Fib Extension. It also made below it's internal subwave A (or 1) end point (low) giving another confirmation for a C of a C and it made below my most important MAID (green line) indicating possibility of going to the next MAID (gray line). My modified RSI was also pointing down (not shown on this video), so anyway there was a strong confluence for calling this wave C at that time.
I'll leave you watch the video now.
Take care
ID

http://www.freewebs.com/waveid/video/NZD%20Call.html

JPY update

2006-03-27T12:41:00.000+02:00

It made only to 117.6 since my previous post, and broke down to mentioned support area of 116.9<>116.4 made low exactly at 116.4

On the chart is what I consider a good argument for my view.
The fact that I see possible strong Dollar in other pairs at least in near term makes me uncomfortable a bit, but still this latest development gives me confidence in my view.
As you can see on the chart, C made to exactly 61.8 Fib Extension of the previous move, returning a strong IM drop down, which after a correction returned again a strong IM drop down.
Now 117.39 low (smaller wave 1 end) is critical for this drop to qualify for wave 1 of larger 3rd, and we need a 5th down to strengthen this view.
Break below wave 1 low 115.49 should give strong move down in a 3rd wave down.
Alternative is wave 1 being wave A IM of a ZZ, in which case 3rd will become C and will finish the drop down.

I haven't done a follow up of my Market Updates for a month, last call overshot my targets up significantly.
AUD was the best of all, pinpointly accurate, returning more than 400 pips since then and will probably make few hundreds more to just below 0.68. NZD also turned to an excellent call and it adds to what I mentioned somewhere before, that 3rds and Cs are the most easier to spot, predict and trade, with lowest risk and with greatest reward. I've looked at NZD because Joseph draw my attention on it and it returned almost 600 pips since than. I believe it will make some more before it finishes this drop.
I'll try preparing an update for EUR, GBP, CAD but don't expect too much.
ID

Joseph, NZD!

2006-03-27T09:35:00.000+02:00

See my post (chart) from 21 Feb... This drop and the whole correction should be very close to bottom if not finished, probably 0.5990 to 0.5940 and the next move up to 0.65 to 0.67
We should wait and see the development before we decide if this would be continuation up of a larger degree C or just first leg A of B of larger B.

There is a slight chance of seeing one more move down (possible wave 5 if this drop C develops IM...) below mentioned target support of .599 <> .594 but even so I expect a min move up to .635<>.64 first.
Once again I don't follow NZD so take it with reserve.
ID

JPY point

2006-03-26T23:06:00.000+02:00

Hi friends
I'm just taking a rest addressing some private issues.
I just want to point to something that deserves attention, especially to you Joseph.

This is a Correlation Table from Dailyfx.com FXCM website.
As you can see on a yearly basis all pairs except USDCAD have had a fairly strong correlation with EURUSD. GBPUSD and USDCHF strong and constant correlation.
What is interesting and what I want to draw your attention at, is that USDJPY lost it's good correlation it had with EURUSD, and in fact shifted to a relatively good negative correlation last month.
(pay attention if the pair is XXX-USD or USD-XXX so USDJPY -0.86 is good positive correlation with EURUSD meaning both EUR and JPY moved in the same direction against the USD most of the time).
Below 116.90/40 is a good confirmation of a possible continuation down to 113.8 to 112.70 to 110.6 but if you want even better confirmation, break below 115.44 March 1 low will provide it.
Above recent high @ 118.48 and above 119.17 would make me consider 124 as a serious possibility.
Intraday, a most probable correction up to 117.75<>117.87 before any continuation down.

Take care all of you,
ID

Nobody loves me! :) :)

2006-03-22T04:18:00.000+01:00

Yeah, after I leave, only then do people start opening up their souls and pondering why I felt like I got a giant kick in the ass. :) :)

It was more fun with my ex-wife in divorce court, where I was given a lesson in reverse leverage and a sobering glimpse of the Promised Land -- where the water tastes like wine, but all the while one's rear end just keeps puckering up.

But what the heck, problems are meant to be solved -- just splitting never helped nobody nohow, hehehehe.

I see that my friend ID continues to underestimate himself, belittle his knowledge and teaching skills -- all this, notwithstanding the severe admonishment he delivered to me in an email, wherein he touched upon my "lack of confidence in my EW skills" :)

And, where the heck was Bear? He reminds me of the woman you complained about her lover -- "he flies in like a bat, tickles me silly for a couple nanoseconds and then vanishes for months."

Just because I was smart enough to escape from the rat race at 39 doesn't mean I gots to do all the work! :)

Change is a fact of life. So, how can this be made better?

Dialogue is the only answer. This is a 2-terminal universe; masturbation is the only activity that it encourages be done alone!

But its got to be a 2-way street with multiple givers -- and I mean that -- multiple givers, many, many individuals putting their thoughts out, questioning others' analysis, asking stuff, getting things cleared up, making calls, refuting calls .... and so on .... you gots the idea?

A Forum then?

Its called Dialogue and its up to the participants to make it illuminating.

The 2 best posters at Moneytec were (are) Idejan and Fxsurfer. The former fondles, caresses and consoles the dead, while the latter rattles their bones with 20-lot, multiple daily ejaculations.

Had no idea forex was going to be this entertaining; even if it makes me go broke -- still highly worth it! :)

Yen and Yang

2006-03-19T05:30:00.000+01:00

Idejan,

Your comments are well said but I believe we all teach to some degree when we post, we express an idea or thought and set forth a list of reasons/criteria why we think this view is valid and look for comments feedback from others to support or invalidate our thoughts. From this we learn as a student and the cycle starts over again.

How ever I must admit that your views on Elliott Wave Analysis are some of the best or better said most complete and comprehensive that I’ve seen. While you do not see yourself as a teacher, one can learn a great deal from studying the views you share. Don’t sell yourself short. Yes there are several books and sources that one could go to learn about EW, but you have a very good understanding and are grounded in the (for lack of a better description) traditional Elliott Wave approach and you express yourself very well.

But I would suggest that the Blog would be better served as it was originally intended ( as I understand it anyway) the open exchange of ideas rather than that of a classroom. However I must confess that I receive a lot more than I put in. :)

Will try to do more.

And I must apologize to Joseph for my silence but some of the questions you asked are completely outside my area of knowledge, and I was looking for others to answer.

I do have some thoughts on divergence, the math behind the different indicators will show divergence differently but when price on it’s second thrust does not move an equal or grater distance in the same time as the first, divergence will show itself. When wave 5 exceeds wave three but the distance in the length of the waves is smaller( 5 less than 3) an oscillator will show divergence, it's all about distance and time traveled. It’s normal and can be seen with the eyes. From your posts I gather your familiar with this and I will try to put together some thoughts and publish.

Sorry to get carried away there and ramble.

I would add that everyone that comes on the blog, please comment, ask questions. Say hello! After all, it’s how we learn.

Idejan, Joseph and Stojce thank you, hope the discussion continues.

Wishing all a great weekend.

Bear

Bear, all

2006-03-18T22:35:00.000+01:00

Bear wrote me a mail, I've wrote a reply and on the way decided to move it here.

But first, WaveID Blog was not accessible for few days because of some technical issues as I've been told by the guys from Blogger support. Everything back to order now, except that we are on a critical juncture with this blog :)

Bear, I remember your post on MoneyTec, and I understand somebody could feel not being competent enough to comment. I'm also aware that there is a difference in format between blog and Public Forum as somebody else suggested, but since we three started a kind of a discussion, we made it kind of a forum, and Blogs still have comment option. So this difference in format could be only an excuse.
You mentioned classroom, but in the classroom, even without any spoken comments, teachers get feed back. They can observe their students behavior, so they get feedback from their faces and gestures, they know if their students are getting it or not, if they are interested or not. Here, without comments it is just like Joseph said, talking to a wall. He got that feeling in this month of posting here, I had it for so long on MoneyTec, until few of you started a discussion.

I never intended teaching, I don't think I have something to teach others. I could have something to share with others. We all know more than we are aware, we use our knowledge daily, but just few sit down and write down in a more presentable and systematized manner, so others can learn from. But my knowledge is not something I've prepared for publishing of any kind, it is not systematized, and at present moment I could not commit my self into such endeavor. It could be taken out by others. Discussions, questions, being questioned and questioning others, criticizing and being criticized, sharpens our knowledge and builds up our confidence in what we know and where we stand.

I don't agree with Joseph on my EW knowledge. I'm neither being modest or undervalue my real knowledge my self. I remember a friend of my father, a wonderful artist, stone sculptor, master of his craft was giving me my first drawing lessons. I was around 14 that time, and on our first class he told me: "It is OK that you are talented. But now, and you should remember this, you should invest 1 ton of hard work and effort for every single gram of talent you have, if you want to master your art." I never mastered, since later in life I turned to Film, it kind off integrated all of my passions for different kinds of art...
So even if I am talented, I know I have years of hard work before I can claim my master degree in EW :). I might be an old fashioned guy, but nowadays people claim titles too easy. Everything is so "digest".

I know Joseph insists he learned from my posts, but everything I could be held responsible is introducing him with his old forgotten friend, his own knowledge of EW.

From one genius mind of Management Philosophy and Theory, Dr. Isak Adizes, whom I had a privilege to met in person, and to learn from his Ingenious work on Management while I was at University, I was reminded on two essential ingredients for a healthy relationship: Mutual Trust and Respect.
IMHO we should use this two ingredients in our relationship with oneselfs too. As I've posted on few occasions on MTec, meAnalyst and meTrader should meet and they should became a close and very good friends if we want good results. That relationship should be based on mutual trust and respect.
Confidence is one of the key words related to success.

As for EW, it is always good to read what different authors have to tell on the subject, but the free Elliott Wave Tutorial available from Elliott Wave International is all you need.
Just don't take EW mechanically, neither purely mathematically (geometricaly).
Best Arguments are made, when all aspects of the argument are taken into consideration.
ID

Thank you Joseph

2006-03-16T10:30:00.000+01:00

Thank you Joseph.
Joseph is right. When you don't get feed back, you have a feeling you are talking to a wall and you are just not sure if what you are saying is good to anybody, if anybody's reading and if reading do they like it and find it useful or not.
I understand him well.
I've seen the statistics, and I'm surprised my self that quite a good number of people saw EW videos, but not a single comment. That tells me that most probably nobody like it.
That is the reason I was not finding time to post new Market Update and a continuation on JPY video and the one I've said I'll do about other indicators I use to make calls.
However I'm very glad I've started writing the first time. I've made a good friend.
Thank you once again Joseph.
ID

Last post: Bye everyone! Goodluck in the Forex.

2006-03-14T02:03:00.000+01:00

:) :) :) Thanks to ID; best EW course I've done.

USDJPY: has brought me face to face with my nemesis

2006-03-13T06:54:00.000+01:00

USDJPY: can this pair be the ultimate gift to the alienated cognoscenti?

We know or have read about NZDJPY and AUDJPY and now recently, CADJPY -- but this is a new ballgame. Why? The downtrodden, written-off, despised, retrograde USD has risen from the dungeon and delivered a comeback, upstaging all heretofore stars, except for perhaps CAD, among the majors.

nemesis, the applicable definition here .... one that inflicts retribution or vengeance.

To me, this pair represents the foundation of what Forex is all about -- namely, a resting place for one's funds, wherein one earns a Return, directly proportional to the degree of leverage used. Capital gains are a bonus in this regard, as the primary motivation and underlying foundation of the Forex is "Carry" -- aka a comfortable, relaxed and enjoyable ride.

Depending on how much you go in with, you could earn more than what most working stiffs in America are slogging their assess off for -- Americans are masters at converting Equity into Debt, having no savings, living from paycheck to paycheck with a window of no more than 2 months before its Salvation Army time -- that 50k in equity financing, applied to USDJPY -- with leverage -- could give one of these working stiffs his ticket to eternal financial salvation.

But we gots to get the direction correct!

Amen!

That's why I'm urging all technicians not to be too flippant about their analysis -- give it careful consideration and deliberation.

This is the mother of all opportunities and we are sitting right at the threshold.

Somewhere between 122 and 101 there ought to be a clear message as to intent.

My call stands as-is but it is no mental picnic knowing that ID's analysis, which I respect more than any I do any other elliottician's, is dead against my call.

Am I destined to go down in ignominous defeat in the face of the opportunity of the decade?

2006-03-12T13:20:00.000+01:00

See chart. Great video, nice work. The sound is OK too; who says it has to be perfect? It was clear sounding to me and all I have is dialup. Thanks ID.

Don't know if anybody even appreciates the fact that this gent is going out of his way to educate us and he's doing it for no money. That in itself, after my experience thus far in Forex, is ..... rarified RARE!

Upto 1995 everything is OK as even the alternates match reasonably well.

What comes thereafter makes me old and crippled.

But I'm happy. Why? Because Prechter is calling for wave V down and is therefore in ID's camp.

Therefore that is the last place I want to be. :) :)

Great difficulty accepting the 2 key waves as impulsive. Not for lack of trying; I gave them the benefit of the doubt every which way I could; but ultimately I cannot buy it!

(1) Cannot have a triangle in wave 2 position. Two locations where I see them. See chart.

(2) The non-EW monthly chart is goddamn BULLISH!

(3) Correction to 116-106 range highly likely and welcomed, but then we're going to 135, 150, 180 and maybe 260. The first sign of reversal and strength, I'm in with tight stops until the large triangle's upper trendline and 122 are taken out.

(4) If 100 breaks, Prechter will have earned the right not to be considered a contrary indicator no more.

Can see ID's point of view clearly, but I just simply cannot go along with it. I'll be forced to if the bottom trendline support of the triangle breaks convincingly.

Bottomline: I believe that USDJPY is the golden pair for the rest of this decade and is a carrytrade player's ultimate wish come true -- I could earn USD 40K per year in Interest alone. But to do this comfortably I've got to be right in my direction call, otherwise loss of capital will kill the carry quickly.

This is a dilemma and as usual I'm alone. Same shit, different day, hehehehe!!!

Tennis Anyone?

2006-03-10T18:31:00.000+01:00

Idejan,

Thank you for the video, very nice!! I guess months from now we all will be sitting back, studying them charts and saying ”That’s what was going on”. Until then the hunt continues.

Late last year I was convinced that we were ending a 5th and headed north for a correction, and although price has headed north from the first of the year it has done so with reluctance. And while it has been hard for me to number some of the smaller degree 5 waves in some of the earlier price action, either motive or larger corrective zigzag, I’m now starting to think there’s more south to come.

Price has held again today on yet another sliding parallel from the prior daily fork, as long as this holds it’s making me think that more range trading is to come. Now wondering if we are in the final wave of an ABC correction from the end of last year.

Thinking that this is like a failed ‘C” wave triangle or perhaps a flag?( A bear's thoughs). If this view is correct we could have another test of the top the “c” followed by a test of the low “d” and then a brief run to “e” and then the bottom would fall out.

Just trying to stay a step or two ahead…..

Well for some reason I can’t add a picture again will edit when able…………problems solved

USDJPY: The fundamental aspect.

2006-03-10T16:45:00.000+01:00

Its Price, Price, Price, but the Interest Rate scenario is tied very closely to investors' purse strings -- that's the reason I pay attention to monetary policy in Japan.

Another compelling reason is that the Yen dances to nobody's tune. It is one heck of a loner; ninjas, yakuzas, Mafia, gurus and everybody worth anything has tried to come up with some sort of correlation that would provide clues to how the Yen works. So far, zilch; a dead end.

With the dollar, you could look into bond yields, Libor differentials, Forward Rates, Fed funds Rate etc., to get some idea of what is going on. With CAD you look at the Toronto Stock Exchange for clues along with fund inflows and the CRB component of the Stock Exchange etc.--

But with the Yen, there's not a single thing that comes even close to giving a halfways decent clue.

What all players want to know now is this:

"Will the end of Quantitative Easing be followed quickly by the ending of the zero interest rate policy?

That's the ticket, guys.

Japan has flooded the universe with liquidity, & has been a main source of capital and savings for the world. Now that looks like it is going to change.

I have an answer to the dilemma and therfore one more key point in my ongoing decision whether to buy (long) USDJPY or not!

The Quantitative Easing policy did not begin in earnest until 2003, four years after interest rates were reduced to below 10bp in 1999 and two years after they fell to absolute zero in mid-2001. Thus a gradual reduction in bank reserves from the present ¥35 trillion to ¥15 trillion (where they were in 2001) or even ¥5 trillion where they were in 1999 would be perfectly compatible with zero or near-zero interest rates.

It is highly likely that BOJ will reduce liquidity while maintaining a zero Interest Rate policy for this decade.

There is a good reason for sticking with the zero interest rate policy.

Japan has a huge government deficit and a very high level of public debt relative to GDP. Thus when the economy gets strong enough to withstand a deflationary impact, the Japanese will want to hit it with fiscal rather than monetary tightening. Tax increases are already in preparation for 2007 or 2008 and to make sure that they can be implemented without causing a 1997-style economic disaster, Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance officials have agreed that monetary policy should remain ultra-loose for the foreseeable future.

All the discussion about ending Quantitative Easing seems to have persuaded many investors that the zero rate policy is also about to be abandoned. The Japanese yield curve is now discounting a very aggressive increase in interest rates, with short rates expected to rise by 75 bps this year and 150 bps by the end of 2007.

I am stating that Interest Rates will remain under 50 basis points or so for the next few years.

I'm satisfied with my fundamental analysis of the situation and furthermore, one more point in its favor is that now the herd is going strongly towards rising Japan Interest Rates. I certainly don't want to go with them. The opposite is the more likely scenario, namely, rates will stay close to zero!

Divergence study is now complete! Thanks.

2006-03-10T16:23:00.000+01:00

Wow! You took it even one step further than I was envisioning -- I had not even considered a divergence between 5th of (iii) and 5th of 3.

Man, I tell you, this is one heck of a top-notch class I'm fortunate to be in.

Its the basics that are popping out at me and all my failed purposes with EW are getting rekindled.

I believe that in a year or so, I'll be a force to reckon with.

Thanks buddy.

NEW EURUSD video analysis

2006-03-10T15:04:00.000+01:00

I posted a new Video Analysis on EURUSD and you can find it by clicking on the link in the right sidebar.

While I was prepearing the files for publishing, uploading the files to the pages price made a strong spikes down, stil it can't be taken as a confirmation. I'd prefer this to clear up before it can be clear if we have a confirmation down or we can expect this to be still part of the correction.

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ID

Joseph: divergences in 3rds

2006-03-10T11:46:00.000+01:00

This chart was prepared for that previous post, and I was confused when I saw your post today, since I was not aware I've missed posting it.
So here it is, and as you can see I agree with your observation about the divergences in 3rd waves, actualy as I wrote in previos post in my observation, 3 wave cycles are not producing divergence and any 5 wave cycle (which means not only IM) are giving divergence.

Divergences in the substructures are reflected too depending od the degree and the time frame you are observing.
I haven't done a study on this, but when I've mentioned observing patterns on RSI I was reffering to this.
I dont have MACD on my charts so I can't speak much about it but it is clear to me that you can't play divergences on their own, but reather use them for inforcement on price patterns.

Now Joseph, I became aware that there are questions I've missed answering, so if it's not too much of a trouble to you, could you please mail me all of the questions by mail so I can have them addressed one by one.
Dejan

Myth busting # 3 (contd) Fed funds Rate

2006-03-10T10:26:00.000+01:00

How did the moron try to kill a bird?

He threw it off a mountain cliff !

-----------

See my earlier post on Fed funds Rate going way, way up into the clouds.

And what were the geniassssses saying then? 4.5, perhaps 4.75 tops and then we go down, down, down!

What are they saying now?

"Over the course of the current tightening cycle, many market participants have been repeatedly surprised by the magnitude and duration of the Federal Reserve’s action. Several times the market has gotten it into its collective head the Fed was done — including in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, or the “one-and-done in 2006” sentiment — only to reverse itself later. Analysts are now forecasting additional hikes to the 5.00-5.50 percent range before this cycle is over."

Why can't a moron dial 911?

They can't find the 11 on the phone!

Myth busting # 4: Trade Deficit & USD

2006-03-10T10:05:00.000+01:00

If you mow your lawn and find a car, you're a redneck.

But a Moron? .... that's a whole different ballgame .....

Why did it take the moron an hour to eat breakfast?

Because the orange juice carton said, "Concentrate!"

How many times have I heard the dollar's problems blamed on the Trade Deficit? Hundreds of times ... and by every single major News org and TV station to boot.

Recent examples: (plucked from EWI site; I have my own charts on this subject but their's are superior, so I present it here instead of my own)

“The US trade data for January is due on Thursday and may trigger some selling if it draws attention to the structural problems facing the US economy.” (AP)

“With expectations for a wider-than-expected result in the US trade gap, there is enough scope for disappointment, making the dollar vulnerable.” (Forbes)

“The widening of the US trade deficit was a key factor behind the dollar’s three-year decline through the end of 2004 and currency analysts warn it may send the US currency falling again.” (Reuters)

EW lesson 1 ... (contd) .. divergences before wave 5!!!

2006-03-10T08:23:00.000+01:00

I know quite well about divergence showing up in wave 5. I am talking about subtle divergence showing up BEFORE wave 5 -- actually at the very end of the 3rd of 3rd.

There is NO Elliott rule on this, I am sure, but I was asking if you personally had observed any such occurrence?

I have, actually -- in spades, and would very much like you to give it some thought over the next several weeks, if you haven't already.

Here's the gist of it: (refer to uptrend as an example)

The 3rd of wave 3 produces maximum impetus which is clearly visible on Macd histogram, Macd and RSI(14). Then, when the actual wave 3 completes, generally there is a clear negative divergence already showing on these 3 indicators. So, actually this is the start of the divergence -- it actually starts right after 3rd of 3.

Then wave 4 generates a lower low usually and shows larger displacements on the histogram, Macd and even RSI generally.

From this huge drop in momentum, it is easy to see why wave 5 delivers the final divergence. There is just too much ground lost for it to make up, especially considering the fact that it is a terminating wave.

My point is that we've got to look earlier than wave 5 for the point when such divergence is actually being born!

EW lesson 1 continued .... answers requested.

2006-03-10T08:06:00.000+01:00

Please see the same chart of Nikkei daily from March 2003 bottom.

(1) Yes ID, the black count is same as your count. OK, no problem here.

(2) Here's what I meant by the drop -- refer to the drop from the Feb 2006 highs. Keeping the degree of tend the same, i.e. Minor waves as shown, I was not sure where wave 3 ended -- January top or is it the February top. Sorry about the error in communication.

So, to repeat; could the Feb top be the top for wave 3 instead of the January top? This would mean that we are now in wave 4 down, with wave 5 yet to come.

Please clear this for me.

Thanks amigo.

EURUSD: wave 1 or A -- my answer to Bear's question.

2006-03-10T07:03:00.000+01:00

This was my thought process -- humbly submitted. Don't know how many EW rules I'm breaking here, but ID can set me straight on this score.

Joseph's EW#1: Within the structure of the supposed wave 1, if there is no clearly discernible (ii) and wave (iv) looks like a picnic, plus the lack of any wave iv within (v) of 1, I smell a rat and this noxious smell usually is the malodorous, soon to be coming to life, wave B, farting in advance of initiation.

Joseph's EW#2: Look back to the corrective drop in early 2004 within the previous bullrun -- if the 2005 drop is wave 1, it is as dubious as a one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest! ..... especially considering the long 4-year bullmarket, one would expect a true wave 1 to kick better ass.

Joseph's EW#3: First waves aborn out of BASING structures and sometimes even in these bases they are hard to distinguish because they never rise out of the base and get hammered by wave 2 within the base itself. This type of wave 1, I call a faggot because wave 3 then has to do all the work while wave 2 thoroughly buggers wave 1.

The other type of wave 1, also out of a basing pattern, is a sight to behold -- this is a different animal altogether. Even on the chart this type of wave 1 looks exactly like an underpantless gigolo who's just seen a beautiful, sexy woman with lots of money.

There was no basing pattern in 2004, therefore this is one more point I used in the elimination process. Odds here heavily favored a wave A in my book.

Joseph EW 4: Wave 1 has a definite tendency to whack the uptrendline; at least put a dent in the sucker. If this was a wave 1, he kissed it, fondled it, got his sacs emptied and then rebounded -- here then is another reason why we are dealing with an A, because wave B of A is next -- the perfect setup for Euro bulls to buy the dip and go Long ..... to eternity, hehehe.

I speak only for myself -- and keep in mind that I've been sent here to blow my account to smithereens & to ensure that the Scriptures are fulfilled! :) :)

On a more serious note:

actual confirmation that we are not dealing with an OVERALL impulse wave for the entire 14 month run starting from December 31, 2004 is further confirmed only in hindsight by the following points:

(1) If the first drop was a wave 1, then the subsequent wave 3 into July 7th, 2005 was a mellifluous pussy. Why? Because even Jack was still bullish the Euro. No recognition in the 3rd of 3rd that "hey, this is dangerous, something weird is occurring" -- I'm going to get buggered if I don't reverse and jump on the train. I'm going to be left behind." None of this type of thoughting, thunking or whatever.

And what's been happening for the last several months, since the July bottom, is the characteristic limp dick wave B, fooling everybody with divergence galore, making all kinds of noise to mask the truth that he can't get it up. The reward at the end of this charade? Full retracement by big dick wave C to under 1.0000!

Adios!

Wave impressions

2006-03-10T03:28:00.000+01:00

Thought I’d throw up a chart I have running in the background with the two predominant views, and ask a question for you Elliott Waveticians.

One of the points that was brought up in the Videos was the fact that reversals start with impulsive/motive waves, and that appearance has a lot to do with nomenclature.

Looking at this, maybe it’s just me but this euro fall from the start of last year, looks impulsive?????

I know there are many counts regarding this as a corrective wave, and using the old adages “you can’t tell a book by it’s cover” but “if it looks like a flower and smells like a flower, chances are it is a flower, ummm - motive wave? :)

Nikkei answers

2006-03-09T10:49:00.000+01:00

Hi Joseph, Bear
The Alternation of waves 2 and 4 is not a rule it is a guidance, something to have in mind anticipating what could happen in a wave 4.
On your NIKKEI chart, ...but first let me just find something... A lesson I got from you :D..just a sec...

Here it is: Elliott wave counts work flawlessly only in hindsight! :D

Now back to your NIKKEI Chart.
If you go back to my NIKKEI chart you will see I labeled that part of the chart as your black count.
"My reason for the alt: red count is that the drop looks like a wave A and is not a 5-er"
I'm not sure if I understood this. Not sure what drop do you point and why it should be a 5-er.
Since you are analyzing a IM up, non of the drops must be an IM 5-er. To all of the drops on your chart, rules and guidances of the Corrections apply.
I'm not sure how would you label that alt. 3 if it is higher, his internal count?
On the part of your explanation about divergences in 5th, in my modest experience divergences show only in 5 wave structures, which means that beside the 5th of IM, they can show in parts of the corrections that could have 5 wave structures too.

as for the next questions on wedges.

Wave 4 can be any correctional pattern. So the answer to your "can the wave-C part of a wave 4 end in an EDT" must be searched in the rules for the waves C of the every different corrective pattern. Let see them:

ZZ

wave C of a ZZ must be either an IM or ED
if wave A of a ZZ is LD then wave C must not be an ED

Flat

C must be IM or ED

Triangle

C of Contracting Triangle can be any correctional pattern
C of Expanding Triangle must be a ZZ based pattern

Double and Triple ZZ

wave C of W cannot be a failure
wave Y must be a ZZ
Y must be equal or greater then X by price
wave c of Y cannot be a failure
wave Y must be grater than 90% wave W by price, and wave Y must be less than 5 times wave W by price

Double and Triple Sideways (D3 and T3)

wave c of W cannot be a failure
wave c of Y cannot be a failure

there few more rules on waves Y but no need to go into ore detail. What I can tell you is if you look too much into detail you know how the saying goes, stare into trees and you would not be able to see the forest.
Let your eye and intuition decide. Then if any doubts check rules. No way you can process all the rules and counts unless you trust what you already know, your intuition.
If it's easier for you, than try not searching for the Right Pattern, but for the Most probable one.
And as i mentioned many times, beside the fact that if you do your analysis well, EW will give you the right or at least the most probable Direction, the second most important thing is that you can tell at what point you are wrong and consider the next probable scenario.
Try to look for opportunities and not to be right.

As for "We also know that B waves cannot end in an EDT. Am I right so far"
since LD and ED are considered a special case of Motive waves (advancing) wave B cannot be either of this.

ID

Problems with audio solved.
video continuation to come.

Bear's declining wedge brings up another point

2006-03-09T06:19:00.000+01:00

We know that the C-wave of a wave 2 can be an ending diagonal triangle (EDT) and that the same applies for 5th waves. We also know that B waves cannot end in an EDT. Am I right so far?

But, what about wave 4? .... wave 4s are generally triangles in their entirety, sometimes zigzags or flats, but ..........

can the wave-C part of a wave 4 end in an EDT?

Thanks Bear, good stuff.

2006-03-09T06:04:00.000+01:00

Pour on the coal, Bear -- I've always liked your stuff, even at the graveyard. Good point with the count you've shown.

Yeah, things are certainly looking up at this little corner of the virtual world.

Thanks brother.

2006-03-09T05:45:00.000+01:00

Joseph,

I’m not the Elliott Guru nor profess to be one, but throwing out my thoughts and we will see what Idejan thinks…

Thinking there should be some alteration between your 2 and 4 waves, possibly your finishing off wave 4 with the “B” being a running correction, the "C" being a declining wedge perhaps?? and you still have “d” and “e” to go in the "C" before up with wave 5.…

Just a bare brained thought.

USDCAD: I'm laffin so hard my head hurts.

2006-03-09T05:38:00.000+01:00

:) :) :)Here's my post from March 3. Let me boast a little as a newbie, OK? I'm tickled pink.

"75% probability for ignition at contact point shown in daily chart. Caveat: 161.8 level is still a bit lower on voodoo Fib grid and is acting like a magnet/magnate. Macd has already made contact. RSi not yet. The trendline supports are from 2004 and 2003 respectively and command considerable respect. If they fire, it will be a rocket blast for some good gains, even if it is only for a few days.More as we go. Go salowly."

See 4-hr chart. I had everything pegged and analyzed correctly by conventional TA standards although my EW count was not correct (not a wave iv, but the move was an abc and c was completing), including giving a thunderous warning in my March 3rd post, "Defcon 4 alert for rally"

but what is the outcome? .. only a small position gives only small profits. Still better than nothing, but no question that there is considerable room for improvement here by going in bigtime when stuff I know works, is just about to happen.

But it is funny to see TA working so beautifully.

If I ever write a book in the future it will be called, "the reliability of long-term RSI trendline ignition!"

A nagging difficulty with 3rd of 3rd and 4th waves. Help!

2006-03-09T04:56:00.000+01:00

See my attached chart of Nikkei.

This is only for clearing up my misunderstanding/difficulty in the area of 3rd of 3rd and 4th waves.

Which is correct, the count in black/grey or the alt: count in red? Why? ... your reasons, please.

My reason for the alt: red count is that the drop looks like a wave A and is not a 5-er.

One reason I have for the shown count in black/grey is due to my Precter days when I got the impression that 3rd of 3 shows tops on indicators such as Macd, RSi and even on trend strength indicators such as ADX. Then wave 3 gives a slight divergence and then wave 5 gives the ultimate divergence. Additionally, my own observations are that Macd and RSI generate a lower low on wave 4.

I'm fuzzy on this stuff and its quite likely there is an embedded misconception.

Your thoughts/explanations, please?

Some thoughts on learning -- students and teachers

2006-03-08T16:26:00.000+01:00

There is a world of difference between a conventional self-determined student and one who is pan-determined.

Self-determinism is taking responsibility only & entirely for the self. Pan-determinism, on the other hand, is taking responsibility not just for self, but also for the other(s) involved in the game or venture at hand.

The former is an excellent trait to possess, but it pales in comparison to the latter.

Example: a game of soccer -- each team is only responsible for itself -- but think of the possibilities and permutations/combinations if one could be responsible for BOTH sides of the game -- equally and impartially. There's got to be a winner, but the depth of play will increase exponentially and all manner of art and magic will burst forth -- even in the event of a draw!!!

A close parallel in concept then, between a student and a selected teacher -- generally in life the teacher is selected by other-determinism. That's usually no good.

But when a lean, mean, hungry, determined student himself .... selects the teacher and then takes full responsibility for any perceived inabilities, real or imagined, in the psyche of the teacher, you have a recipe for success because it draws on the magic of pan-determinism.

His posts at the graveyard were outstanding, but what I've seen here is magic aborning -- like in the movie "The Black Stallion" -- this desert horse has EW levels of finesse that ain't never been tapped!

No newspaper ads, no magazine ads, no TV, no nothing -- my path crossed his -- in a graveyard; more specifically, at grave #34 -- a Fib number to boot.

A crooked, perhaps very knowledgeable moderator (knowledgeable especially in the realm of cliches -- he knows them all -- verbatim) at the graveyard said to me in a fit of rage; "you'll have blown your account and be gone from Forex within a few months, but I'll still be here!" ...... this moderator apparently makes millions of dollars and controls millions in funds of other companies/individuals etc. Bottomline: I wouldn't learn doodly squat from such a dude even if I paid him a trillion.

For months I was searching the graveyard for a decent broker and I was becoming exasperated. Every time it appeared that I found a good one, I'd run into a ton of negative stuff and would then eliminate the said broker.

I threw my hands up in absolute disgust and despair and fired off a mental distress call -- within a couple days I ran into Idejan's posts and lo and behold, his mention of Alpari; a broker who had not only Forex, but also Futures, USDX and a host of other stuff -- plus MT4 -- then from this same individual I found out that Oanda was also outstandingly good, whereas the graveyard was putting this outfit down across the board. Throw in the EW knowledge he possesses and you dig what I'm getting at?

A man's got to know his own limitations, but he also ought to know the right road when, in a drunken stupor, he stumbles upon it!

Adios amigos

Thank you all

2006-03-08T11:55:00.000+01:00

Uh, far from being a classroom material.
I’m more of a intuitive person. I highly depend and trust my intuition. I don’t like constrains, so even when I have a system it is not as systematic as many would prefer. Most of the time it is more like a meditative process than anything else (nothing to do with yoga or any other meditations) and I’m not talking about analysis only.
I like keeping open mind. So while I have a strong attitude and opinions on many things, I’m always completely open and searching for surprises.
I apologize if at parts or possibly the whole video is unclear, specially because it is missing labels, in the next I will try adding labels and edit the video afterward to clear unnecessary delays. I just wanted it to be really live and unedited.
Sometimes we just think or expect that what is perfectly clear for us, will be clear to others too, forgetting that it came to our knowledge from something we have seen, read, heard and digested and based on our previous knowledge. So we need to make sure we communicate that same message to others as clear possible so they have the right message. But I’m not either a teacher or a professional trainer. I’m trying to log my cognitive processes so that others can use it, and perhaps I’ll improve doing that.
This was not my intention and if you find it useful, you should all thank to Joseph.
He insisted my EW knowledge being good enough for others to learn from and is responsible for this video being made. :D
I would not mind if he organizes a seminar on Thailand. I’d be glad to prepare better :D. Or perhaps I’ve ruined my reputation with this video :D

I’m addressing the audio problem and as soon as I finish that I’ll prepare the continuation of the USDJPY analysis including the current development. I’ll also present the other part of my TA, how I’m using one very simple tool, and I present it on that call from 28 Feb.
Stojce will put a link on the right side to a page where you can find all the videos I’ll prepare.
I’ve been told that many visitors from my neighboring Bulgaria and Serbia are coming this day, so a special thanks to all of them for their interest.
ID

Поздрав до сите Форекс пријатели од Бугарија и Србија.
Се надевам дека најдовте нешто корисно овде.
Вашите коментари и прашања се добредојдени.
Дејан

For ID: Thanks, thanks, thanks.

2006-03-08T06:31:00.000+01:00

Don't mistake my belated thanks for indifference or ingratitude.

I want to read your posts several times, give it some thought, and assimilate the info before I respond.

A few more days then .......

Adios

EURUSD: details on my wave C (up) call!

2006-03-08T05:54:00.000+01:00

Caveat: The market will tell me and you whether I am a shmuck or a sublime lover -- when? .... we'll know soon enough. I'm ready for both outcomes but prefer the latter and have a bottle of Sake ready if the former decapitates my pride.

Let's get on with it then, shall we? See chart. Stoploss line is just below wave 1 beginning @ either 1.1833 or 1.1825.

Wave C has been underway from Feb 27th low of 1.1825 or Feb 28th low of 1.1833.

The current colossal drop is wave 2 down. Don't know whether this wave 2 is a complete abc or whether it is only wave (a) of 2.

Either way I am in and positioned for love or a kick in the ass.

I remember my own writing about the devilishness of wave 2 and how every mother's son expects the previous bearishness to continue. This is the time for the individual to rise above the crowd thinking and walk the road alone, lonely as a son of a gun, with trepidation and his own internal destroyer wreaking havoc on his well-being. Such is life; it can be a bitch during such moments.

I therefore take my stand, hold my ground and wait!

USDJPY EW videos

2006-03-07T20:45:00.000+01:00

Here are the links of the EW Video Analysis on USDJPY.
It is in two parts, has a low quality audio, but I believe it will do.
I will try the next one to be with better audio.
Here are the links:

USDJPY Part 1

USDJPY Part 2

Tomorrow I will continue with the analysis on the recent Development and since I was asked how I do my calls, I could shortly show that on the last calls from 28 Feb Market update.
It will present the other part of my TA, my MAIDs and my modified RSI.

I sincerely hope you will find this videos useful, I know that labeling would have been a great +, but it would have taken considerably more minutes and would add to the size of the video.
I just hope that you can handle my presentation and I'd appreciate comments and questions.
I once again apologize for the low quality audio, that was the main reason this wasn't published yesterday. Hope to be able to find the best quality to size solution and to clear the interferences that are creating the noise, for the next video.

ID

EurUsd: original call -- wave C up -- still very much alive.

2006-03-07T14:37:00.000+01:00

My call of wave C up is unchanged!

Just hammered in some LONG ...... EurUsd at the very lows.

First sign of reversal and continuation north will be greeted by more purchases.

But for now, I'm IN!

Update

2006-03-07T13:37:00.000+01:00

Never got the chance to get back in south and my north wave 2 folly got me nowhere, price has found some support back on the bottom tine of our previous daily fork, looking to get back short from a retrace.

Hope everyone's having a great day

Idejan, some good points on wave trading. Thanks.

well, it looks like Im back to being unable to post a pic again (it's blue because i'm sad.)

It's Fixed :) What's a happy color?

EurUsd: 4-hr move from Feb 27th

2006-03-07T05:21:00.000+01:00

A samurai weapon -- apply to current EurUsd 4-hr chart rally from Feb 27th.

In Hollyweird it would be called Thunderlips.

aka "Trendline by angle"

Observe that the rally thus far scores 51 degrees angle of ascent, aka angle of attack. I believe virility of this calibre must be respected by all women. The current correction on the 4-hr is therefore a regrouping and recharging of the seminal vescicle.

Can it be a dud? Yeah, in which case it would be tantamount to using Viagra, which in my book, is cheating and earns my scorn. In this event, I be wrong and bow out gracefully.

If wrong, then let it be known that I came so that the Scriptures may be fulfilled!

2006-03-07T03:23:00.000+01:00

Testing to see if I can post a picture

Here's the pic of the CAD from earlier.

The compose and edit functions are still kinda buggy.

Euro Update

2006-03-07T00:54:00.000+01:00

Idejan and Joseph,

Here’s a couple of screen shots, that show my current thoughts. From last week price has found resistance on the black fork, Thinking this is the 5th that has been discussed earlier, ( I know you two are thinking that this current drop is a corrective wave, and I may agree to a point however I believe that the correction is much larger than shown 5 down, 3 up and 5 down perhaps??)

On the hourly, Don’t faint Joseph, as I mentioned earlier, have been trying to long on a retrace of wave 1. If my thoughts are correct, price will make the red box and reverse south setting up a 3rd wave down, and should be a good one. Price is making a small H&S on the hourly, and if price fails to meet the top of the upward sloping expanding channel ( if will have to storm north to do so) would show weakness in the euro, imo. Might add my north trade has not netted many pipola’s basically trying to catch what I can of the retest to enter south again. Would like to see at least a 50% pull back and will start to scale in longs again. Upper tine of the black pitch fork will be my failure point.

Joseph your C correction may be valid still, as price is still within the two major forks, but so far price has respected the south. One of the two will have to give soon, and price’s direction will be known.

CAD??

2006-03-06T20:14:00.000+01:00

Joseph,

Running like the ole' chicken with it's head chopped off today, will post some charts this evening, Idejan was wondering my thoughts on a possible Eur top, but I couldn't help but take a break and post this....

Time for a retrace, but do think we are putting in a bottom, time will tell.

for some reason I can't add a pic, will try to edit later

Finally those EW points

2006-03-06T19:50:00.000+01:00

I’m starting with the Note I posted to Joseph on his questions about longer term USDJPY view simply because in my opinion it is the most important thing you should focus when analyzing Charts.

Corrections, can start with both Impulsive action (A and C of a corrections can be IM waves) and Corrective action. But Reversals can only start with Impulsive action, and wave One could be either IM or LD (Leading Diagonal) in both cases the internal structure is 5-3-5-3-5 with the difference - possible overlapping if LD. LDs are rare.

A correction in the above note is …Reversals and Continuations can only start with IM...

When you analyze your charts, what you are interested in is finding OPPORTUNITIES.
First thing to learn in EW even before how to label a chart, should be that the only waves you would like to trade are MOTIVE waves or better said IMPULSIVE ones, and depending on the scale you would either trade the whole moves or only some of the actionary subwaves 1, 3 and 5 of the IM.
This is simply because they are more predictable and provide larger directional moves, thus presenting a better Risk to Reward opportunities (lower Risk to greater Reward potential).
Correctional moves are difficult to both predict and even more difficult to trade.
An exception could apply in cases where A and/or C are IM waves.
Since we all know the basics of EW no point on explaining them, but out of that basics comes a simple conclusion.
Motive waves move in a five wave structures and corrective in a three.
So either way there is a third wave always.
And since you need at least two points to determine direction, that is why the best waves to trade are 3rd waves of an IM and Cs, especially when C is IM itself. This also because ZigZags correctional patterns are prety much same with IM since thay have internal structure of 5-3-5 but the diference is that they are 3 wave structures, so the next 3-5 will not happen and that can full you.

What I will present here is something you all know, and is very very simple, so simple I'm not sure I sould be writing about it. But this in my opinion is the first and most you should know of EW when analysing Markets looking for opportunities.

When we are looking on a chart we are actually looking at/for either:

Reversal of the trend
Continuation of the trend
Or Correction of the trend

(since I was chatting in a room, this took more time to write so I’ll make it short and then explain if there are questions)

If we are looking for a Reversal, we will look for a finished IM wave and IM wave started after it but in the other direction (one of a smaller degree). Problem here is because the next returned IM in the other direction could be either wave 1 of the reversal or just a wave A of the correction. That is why it is better to wait for a confirmation.
Answer on this dilemma lie just below the previous IM end (top or bottom) and after the next IM wave (in opposite direction) is finished the confirmation is above that wave high.

If we are in a Continuation, than we want to see a finished IM wave followed by a correction. This is excellent indication for a continuation above previous top (or below bottom)(exemptions are failed or truncated fifths).

So as mentioned in previous case, Corrections are only good indication of a continuation of a previous trend. But you can also trade the 3rd waves of the corrections labeled as C waves, as they provide same or similar opportunities as 3rd waves of an IM because they can develop as IM waves too. C waves of the Flats and ZZ must develop as IM waves.

This is the essence, no matter how you label the charts, this is what will give you the most important answers and will help you find the best opportunities on that charts.

I’m preparing a video for USDJPY questions. Link coming shortly after I manage to pack it in reasonable size.

Below is the Joseph's Long Term USDJPY and 3 points of consideration.

On the second (ok if considered C but should be followed by IM... should add ...or followed by D)

Addition to the 4/1 overlapping post should be that overlapping in Impulsive waves is also possible in two special cases: Leading Diagonals and Ending Diagonals, which are type of Triangle formations but with steeper advancing slope. LD could develop in wave 1, and ED in wave 5. Difference between this two are that, while ED have internal structure of 3-3-3-3-3 same as corrective waves, LD have 5-3-5-3-5 IM structure with typical overlapping.

Last calls from 28 of Feb, came out nicely, but unfortunately I was not able to publish a follow up on them.

ID

USDCAD: Look Ma: you told me there'd be days like this!

2006-03-06T19:06:00.000+01:00

:) :) this is getting more and more hilarious. Witchcraft! voodoo! What will the fundamentalists say?

But wait, here's a thought -- others feel free to offer some arguments for and against, OK?

so far, textbook bounce off daily macd/RSi trendline support -- in this case the Macd fired first -- but also the FE 161.8%. Currently at FE 100% resistance after also hitting 38.2 fib.

My analysis tells me this is a wave iv and that we've got to go back down for wave v to the 161.8% level @ 1.1300 or thereabouts again.

That will be good temp bottom. This is MHO.

But some of you may feel that the rally is going to just continue and not return to the 1300 area.

Well?

Good news for Forex newbies!

2006-03-06T18:12:00.000+01:00

NFA and CME both have started offering free online courses for Spot and currency futures respectively.

Most liquor stores now carry shark repellent. Get some!

You don't need to spend thousands of dollars to learn the Forex. My experience? The best courses are free. Don't burn your capital on junk. Pure Forex books? .... bah!

There are also a couple free e-books that I read when I got started last year. That was plenty enough for me.

Another place I'd recommend is the free Q&A sessions at FXCM -- these are recorded sessions and it will take several days to finish reading them; but it is generally good stuff, with a broad overview of the different pairs and their correlations, if any.

But for your continuing education and actually the creme de la creme, you really ought to download all the issues of CurrencyTrader magazine -- first issue was in October 2004. This is a monthly mag and it will supercharge your forex ammo.

These guys are good -- they even answered my questions meticulously and quoted me twice, thus far, hehehehe. Best news? Its free, baby.

Other advice: low position size, trade less, less, less. Keep it simple and don't go live until you're ready NOT to lose money! Its never OK to be willing to lose money to learn!

Disregard that system selling (3,000 or 3,500 pounds Sterling) moderator shark at Moneytec who has stated very often -- "you must learn to lose money professionally first!"

Goodluck! :)

Wave 4/1 overlap ..... (contd.)

2006-03-06T17:46:00.000+01:00

Bear and ID -- good stuff, much obliged.

There you have it; I did NOT know about the overlap being acceptable on smaller timeframes; and I can tell you that I am relieved to read your answers; especially about application in leveraged markets.

So many times I've just flat out rejected a count because I saw an encroachment and then ended up scratching my head for days as I concluded that there just could not be any other sensible count.

Would appreciate ID throwing in a chart example of an actual encroachment on a smaller timeframe, esp. if such occurred on the 4-hr.

Answers to some of the questions

2006-03-06T13:54:00.000+01:00

I apologize to all not participating actively this few days.
I'll start with few of the questions and answer others in a while.
Mean while I'm in the ChatRoom so I invite for a chitchat.

Remember my trading system? ..... Enter/exit when the head says No, the heart whispers compassionately, Yes -- and the soul demands it!

There are experiments that show men learns (knows) things long before they are aware they know them. Long before conscious mind digest content. But this will take us to unknown territory.
My thought on this is that when we are born we know everything, but then the system makes his best to put us in as smaller box possible, our parents, school, work, are bombarding us with Constrains and we end up knowing nothing.

So the obvious question is, "can it ever enter wave 1's territory?" By this I mean, "can any part of wave 4, be it the beginning, middle portion or the end, ever touch or enter wave 1's territory?"

It is not uncommon that wave 4 enters into wave 1 territory in a Leveraged markets and especially in highly leveraged ones. But when so, it is usually on a smaller time frames and for not more then 15% of wave 2 length and for not more than day or two.

I knowed we wuz in trubbel when waveid's traffic meter's wave C crossed the 78.6% retracement mark, a plot of land was p-oychased right adjascent to Moneytec's afterlife jumbalaya & 100s of winners popped open the lids of their coffins and in one unified voice screamed, "what the heck is goin on?"

I'll do my best to find more time, but I'm not lacking willingness. I sincerely hope to be able to give more here, and I don't have any problem with how visited this place is. I simply enjoy this small party. Especialy since it gets just about the same regular visits as on MTec.
Wave 2 can last up to nine times the time taken for wave 1 to complete :)
Wave 1 took 1 week.

ID

PS. I’m writing a longer text to explain my points on EW, and it will be published very soon today. I believe that will answer all other questions. Later we can discuss it on a chart.

A can of worms

2006-03-06T13:30:00.000+01:00

Joseph,

Your bringing up a question that’s going to start civil unrest. Here’s my take. And it’s just my view, so take it with a grain of salt. I believe that while the (5-3) or 8 wave pattern does define price, the guidelines or rules for wave configuration in highly leveraged markets tend to get bent. I think for the most part the rules remain intact, but when price in on a stampede it can trample down the corral that would normally contain it, ( or overshoot areas that would generally provide sup/res as the high or lows of prior waves.

Also I do not discount the fact of some minor market manipulation when price is trading near levels, there’s a lot of blackbox, system trading, I think there are times when price is near certain levels that price will be pushed to trip the levels of some systems.

I thought that Frost and Prechter mentioned leveraged markets in the book but I am unable to find it this morning, need more coffee…….

In a nut shell, yes I think they can over lap, albeit slightly I can't see wave 4 having lunch with the end of 2 , but more on the smaller time frames. I don’t think this is the norm (need some sort of structure or the whole things useless) just I keep it in the back of the noggin that’s it’s a possibility.

EurGbp: Look at "daily" & thou shalt understand why!

2006-03-06T02:33:00.000+01:00

I'll just carry on talking to myself here; maybe the same fella who gave me some water to quench my thirst when I was crossing the desert alone, will return -- this time with some venison, wine and a belly dancer. Dreamin? .. yeah, baby, the heat of the sun will do that to you.

We've got to get down to serious EW study!

2006-03-05T16:28:00.000+01:00

Remember my trading system? ..... Enter/exit when the head says No, the heart whispers compassionately, Yes -- and the soul demands it!

The good news is that this system belongs to each and every one of us natively. Where we differ as individuals is in our ability/disability to nullify/succumb (to) the destroyer (the sole reason for the millions of trading books on the market) who sits betwixt the head and the heart and corrupts and/or deletes messages from the latter 2 -- our allies.

The message is clear -- we've got to dig deep, revisit the basic EW rules, wave structural and aerodynamic theory and practice; dovetailing conventional TA with EW -- the personality and internal character traits of waves, especially the devilishness of wave 2, humiliating capability of wave B and the aborning thrust hinted by wave 4 ..... etc., etc. And of course, let's not forget about fibonacci wave relationships.

This is what we gotta do.

The time has come to get this underway.

I hereby start the ball rolling with a rule about wave 4, that now needs a clarification .....

saw this recently posted on EWI website -- never seen this rule written like this before, but it sure opened up the question ....

"Wave 4 cannot end in wave 1's territory!"

So the obvious question is, " can it ever enter wave 1's territory?" By this I mean, "can any part of wave 4, be it the beginning, middle portion or the end, ever touch or enter wave 1's territory?"

And by touch, I mean, exact price value, wherein the lowest low of wave 4 = the highest high of wave 1 (uptrend).

For this party to get underway, we need a teacher and at least one student. I believe we have a professor and more than one student.

We can't lose! :) :)

Too bad they don’t pay you back when they are wrong.

2006-03-05T05:43:00.000+01:00

Signal Services,…………. They flourish with a majority of traders for many reasons but two stand out, imo;

1) Most traders will not take the time to study and learn their craft. The forex markets are the worst, with the low initial deposits and over leverage. The golden apple of instant wealth, get rich quick mentality, permeates thru this industry. People are drawn in with the schemes and then are misled by simple indicator based strategies, when all the arrows point down in the same direction, sell!! #%&@*!………….

There aint no system that will work in every different situation the markets will throw at you, if you take every MA or Stochastic cross, ect. you’ll be in that Commodore Hotel Bar singing them lonely broke blues with all the other Boys.

2) Most traders will not take responsibility for their own trades, at least if they follow a signal service or trade rec. - when their broker makes a margin call, they can blame it on some one else. Well everyone else lost today, I don’t fell so bad. Boy the markets are brutal today, They hunted my stops. The list goes on forever…… Hello!!!! If your having a bad day some else is having the new pool installed.

I’ll crawl down off my soap box…..

Study, learn your profession better than 98% of all the other traders, it’s a tough job - very few will really succeed…………..wonder how many subscriptions I can sell with that??

Scam watch early warning call!

2006-03-05T02:55:00.000+01:00

The Money Trader -- a signal service.

Watch out -- you'll be dead and/or broke in 6 months!

Basic rule that has stood the test of time is as follows:

Those who cannot do, teach. Those who cannot perform in industry, become professors.

Trading is hard; only the tigers survive and even they have to be ever vigilant!

Signal\newsletter etc. providers cannot trade themselves; their only source of income is from your funds.

My personal experience with the Forex is that everything of bountiful, exquisite value came to me just like god-given gifts, such as air, water and love. No money was involved.

There are hundreds of signal providers around, but what makes this particular one lethal to your pocketbook is the dual famous names, Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg.

Both are technical writers for FXCM & Kathy has just written a book on FX trading.

I believe this service is not related to or connected to FXCM, but it is entirely possible that it is a strategic attack at the millions of wildebeast.

They want $1,500 per year for their signal service.

Having read their stuff for a few months at FXCM's website I can unequivocally state that both are terrible market timers.

Both are decent enough writers of technical points, but I believe an average technician, working on his own, can do far better.

Its getting so a Forex newbie can't even go to the can in peace anymore without some asshole taking a shot at his goodies!

:) :)

Waveid\blogspot crossed 78.6% retracement? :)

2006-03-05T01:46:00.000+01:00

:) :)

I knowed we wuz in trubbel when waveid's traffic meter's wave C crossed the 78.6% retracement mark, a plot of land was p-oychased right adjascent to Moneytec's afterlife jumbalaya & 100s of winners popped open the lids of their coffins and in one unified voice screamed, "what the heck is goin on?"

This wave 2 down is brutal; and wave B of this 2nd wave even tricked a truckload of dead people; this is a new development in wave theory, for the dead are supposed to be left alone and respected. Wave C seems to have whacked the living on their heads with a saucepan.

This is not good; it was already not safe to go to the can in peace anymore; now the graveyard too?

What will be the trigger for firing off wave 3 up?

-----------------------------------

Two waveid fellas were walking home after a party and decided to take a shortcut through Moneytec just for laughs. Right in the middle of the cemetery they were startled by a tap-tap-tapping noise coming from the misty shadows. Trembling with fear, they found an old man with a hammer and chisel, chipping away at one of the headstones.
"Holy cow, Mister," one of them said after catching his breath, "You scared us half to death -- we thought you wuz a ghost! What are you doing working here so late at night?"
"Those fools!" the old man grumbled. "They misspelled my name!"

I'm fine, Dow you doing?

2006-03-04T16:53:00.000+01:00

Here's the spot to hang-ten on an "A" wave

USDSGD: here's my EW count

2006-03-04T08:54:00.000+01:00

I can see the entire island in under 2 hrs but I'll be damned if I can figure out the count with any degree of confidence!

ID: Need reinforcements; I'm outnumbered & outflanked!

2006-03-04T05:25:00.000+01:00

I need your help, buddy. The count for USDTHB

USDTHB: Oanda has the data for the Father, the Son and the Holy Ghost -- i.e. Japanese Yen, Singapore dollar and Thai Baht -- all versus USD. Their relationship to each other w.r.t. USD is unmistakeable and their tight bond is in line with regional relationships in the stock market indexes too. Since early September 2005, the Baht's tight correlation suddenly derailed.

I've done well for 4 years knowing when to switch between one and the other (USD or THB) in a non-currency trading sense; but now, since I am a currency trader and live in SE Asia, the importance of this pair in my life has exponentialized.

There is not even one good, reliable conventional Tech. analyst (EW analysts? .. forget it!) in the region, so for years I've gone the Thai Stockmarket totally alone, generally against the entire stock analysts calls and have been winning, but I've come to a crossroads and I'm lost with regard to this pair since September.

This is the reason why I therefore stayed out of the Thai stockmarket since then -- I've lost out on stock gains by not playing, but due to the fact that the Baht is 90%+ positively correlated to the stock market, I felt that my uncertainty on the Baht justified my not entering the stock market.

OK then -- see monthly & weekly charts. If necessary I can shoot off the Metastock format to you -- data goes back to 1984 for USDTHB and to 1991 for USDSGD.

As for USDJPY, we have already discussed that before, so need to take it up again except as a reference, if necessary.

I do realize and know quite well that EW analysis insists on studying a market for itself, regardless of relationships to other markets, but I brought up the 2 other pairs solely for reference and background in the event it might help put some perspective on my dilemma.

Regards

Joseph

Dow Jones: One more shot at 11,200?

2006-03-04T02:16:00.000+01:00

A fundamental analyst was on his way to the airport; suddenly, upon seeing a signpost, he became extremely disappointed and made a U-turn, muttering under his breath and headed back home.

Why?

Because the signpost said, "Airport left"

Interest rates

2006-03-03T16:57:00.000+01:00

Einstein dies and goes to heaven only to be informed that his room is not yet ready.

"I hope you will not mind waiting in a dormitory. We are very sorry, but it's the best we can do and you will have to share the room with others" he is told by the doorman.

Einstein says that this is no problem at all and that there is no need to make such a great fuss. So the doorman leads him to the dorm. They enter and Albert is introduced to all of the present inhabitants.

"See, Here is your first room mate. He has an IQ of 180!" "Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can discuss mathematics!"

"And here is your second room mate. His IQ is 150!" "Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can discuss physics!"

"And here is your third room mate. His IQ is 100!""That Wonderful! We can discuss the latest plays at the theater!"

Just then another man moves out to capture Albert's hand and shake it. "I'm your last room mate and I'm sorry, but my IQ is only 80.

"Albert smiles back at him and says, "So, where do you think interest rates are headed?"

EurUsd: A pair if one dies? A view to a kill; 2006-07

2006-03-03T10:45:00.000+01:00

The Draw:

Euro: Nothing matters now - not the land, not the money, not the woman. I came here to see you. 'Cause I know that now, after all this time, you'll finally tell me what you're after.

Dollar: ... Only at the point of dyin'.

Euro: ... I know.

The draw begins and euro is shot thru' the heart, the bullet whipping his body 180 degrees -- he falls to the ground but he ain't dead yet.

Euro: Who are you?

Dollar: (takes off the harmonica hanging around his neck, walks up to the sprawled Euro and places it in his mouth. Euro's eyes start wandering as his mind flutters in an attempt to determine the significance of the harmonica -- then recognition arrives as he realizes he himself had placed this very same harmonica in the mouth of Dollar when he was down and out back in late 2004; a mere shadow of himself -- and with Bill Gates and Warren Buffet taunting and screaming insults at the downtrodden greenback.)

Just as long as the song doesn’t end up like this

2006-03-03T05:01:00.000+01:00

I've seen the bright lights of Memphis And the Commodore Hotel And underneath a street lamp I met a Southern belle

Well, she took me to the river Where she cast a spell And in that Southern moonlight She sang this song so well
If you'll be my Dixie chicken I'll be your Tennessee lamb And we can walk together Down in Dixieland

Yeah well, we made all the hot spots My money flowed like wine And then that low-down Southern whiskey Began to fog my mind

And I don't remember church bells Or the money I put down On the white picket-fence and boardwalk Of the house at the edge of town

Oh, but boy do I remember The strain of her refrain And the nights we spent together And the way she called my name

If you'll be my Dixie chicken I'll be your Tennessee lamb And we can walk together Down in Dixieland

Yeah, well it's been a year since she ran away Guess that guitar player sure could play She always liked to sing along She's always handy with a song

Then one night in the lobby Of the Commodore Hotel I chanced to meet a bartender Who said he knew her well

And as he handed me a drink He began to hum a song And all the boys there at the bar Began to sing along

If you'll be my Dixie chicken I'll be your Tennessee lamb And we can walk together Down in Dixieland

Little Feat

Gonna throw out a intra-day bearish contrasting view, me thinking euro’s has seen the high for the week and is heading south towards the black median, if current high is taken out will look to short off a retest of the upper black tine 2085/2100. Looking at the moment for any retest back into the 2030-40ish area to short.

As for the Cad have put on a small long position and have scaled in from 1348 thru 1311 pyramiding my entries remainder of orders are sitting just under 1300, 1290 area.

Time will tell......

USDCAD: Defcon 4 alert ... oil weaponry & wait!

2006-03-03T02:50:00.000+01:00

75% probability for ignition at contact point shown in daily chart. Caveat: 161.8 level is still a bit lower on voodoo Fib grid and is acting like a magnet/magnate. Macd has already made contact. RSi not yet. The trendline supports are from 2004 and 2003 respectively and command considerable respect. If they fire, it will be a rocket blast for some good gains, even if it is only for a few days.

More as we go

Go salowly.

Currency trading ... this comes to mind

2006-03-03T02:06:00.000+01:00

She walks everday thru' the streets of New Orleans
She's innocent and young, from a family of means,
I've stood many times outside her window at night,
To struggle with my instinct in the pale moonlight,

How can I be this way when I pray to God above,
I must love what I destroy and destroy the thing I love?

........................................... Sting

My recent call -- result .... what's yet to come is gravy!

2006-03-03T01:20:00.000+01:00

See chart:

First yellow ellipse: short closed and reversed to new LONG with low position size entry.

Second yellow: added another LONG, double the previous size, but still relatively small.

What happened then? My hL (shown with the blue check mark on chart) notation just below the 2nd ellipse was my take that we had a higher low. I was wrong as EurUsd rose but then dived to a new low. I was embarrassed and pain shot thru' my corpse with tantalizing accuracy.

What followed the final low makes me a proud newbie -- 2 heavy duty premature ejaculatory leverage plays were fired in quick succession, as you can see by the brown ellipses. As we approached the 200-pd MA on 4-hr (with the 200-pd on daily within slingshot reach) I withdrew the ejaculators and reduced them to just 1:1 as I wait for possible retrace or further breakout.

Whatever comes now is just gravy, of which I will partake heartily.

Is this the wave C up that I called the final charge upward to complete the Euro rally that started Nov 16th? Dunno, but I'm entitled to call it Joseph3 ... for now.

Therefore the entire 4-hr turn has been called and is now concluded!

There is much to learn still; it is clear that I was in early -- I don't like that and need to work on this some more. But I gots the time and the inclination to do this and do it well.

Other newbies -- it can be done, disregard the 90% loser propaganda that is so amply written about at the graveyard! Bah!

God, do I love it so!

EurUsd: EW International's current take

2006-03-02T04:18:00.000+01:00

ID has produced yet another masterpiece. Clearly laid out alternatives and excellent study material for a student. Much obliged.

Shocked to see ID's "despised" alternative coincide with my preferred call. I thought we was friends! :) :)

Presented is EWI's latest EurUsd take -- its on their website and is a free article; don't believe I'm violating any copyright laws, but if so, I'll straighten it out with them, if contacted.

Here's the article in its entirety:

What Moved EURUSD Today: Facts or Speculation?
2/28/2006 3:00:24 PM

Today (Tuesday, Feb. 28) was an especially interesting day to watch forex headlines. In the very early morning hours U.S. time, one major online news source ran a story saying that the dollar was “headed for its first monthly gain since November against the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates.”

Oh, that proverbial “speculation” about the soon-to-be-here higher interest rates. Listen to that reasoning, and buying the U.S. dollar every day is a great idea. But oops – how ironic – just as that story was hitting the newswires, around 2:30 AM this morning the dollar started to fall, sending the EURUSD almost 100 pips higher by noon.

Seeing such “unexpected market action,” the headlines changed the tune later in the morning, blaming the EURUSD rally on two negative economic reports released at 10 AM: drops in consumer confidence and Chicago area manufacturing.

Of course, if you check the chronology, you’ll see that the USD started losing to the EUR almost eight hours before the Chicago PMI and consumer confidence numbers came out. In fact, by 10 AM this morning, the EURUSD rally was already half-way finished.

Still, forex reporters did get one fact straight today – the one about the currency markets being moved by speculation about facts, not necessarily by facts themselves. Speculation is all about hunches, feelings and emotions – in a word, about psychology. And few market analysis methods are as good at anticipating shifts in market psychology as Elliott wave.

To wit, here’s the forecast we published Monday night in anticipation of today’s EURUSD rally:

Update For: TuesdayPosted On: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 21:19:00 GMTEURUSD [Last Price]: 1.1849Confidence Level: Medium-High …the Minor wave A bottom is in place and that an irregular flat Minor wave B corrective rally is in its early stages.

EURUSD 2005 drop

2006-03-01T22:21:00.000+01:00

Hi
I know I've posted my preferred views on EURUSD in few occasions on MoneyTec, and know I am posting kind off an update of that Charts.

Joseph, I started writing my analysis on JPY Longer Term, but would definitely like to try a recorded video or a MS NetMeeting conference. I have some problems with audio, hope to solve it quickly. If not I'll have to write it. I'll do NIKKEI and CAD together with JPY.

On the charts is the drop from beginning of 2005. Since I believe the chart is clear enough no need to explain it.

Second chart is the recent drop and how I see it.

As I wrote few posts back in those Market updates, I believe we are in a downtrend and I don't expect any surprises.

But there is a possibility of a correction to go to upper levels 1.2040 to 1.2160
On the chart up are the resistance levels, and above that could comletely change the view.
If USDX can't make it above 90.40/55 then we can expect it will drop further down, so possible larger gains in USD based pair.

For Bear : misunderstanding!

2006-03-01T16:34:00.000+01:00

Bear,

Thank you for your explanation on the subject of assumed risk. Nicely stated.

However, I see you've misunderstood me quite a bit.

I was not looking to enter UsdJpy at the resistance level of 121 or even thereabouts. Such an entry, even one for a long-term play, would be foolhardy as the most probable route is south. Buying a top is the 2nd worst sin in my book.

Even before my post I had a gameplan wherein I would enter on the correction to the area between 108 and 116 -- not @ 121. This is still my plan regardless the longer-term view.

The question was not entry dependent, only directional dependent -- i.e. looong-term is UsdJpy heading to the upper reaches or to the basement. EW thoughts and other types of analysis, all welcome.

Hope this clears things up.

USDCAD: Some important points to consider.

2006-03-01T12:00:00.000+01:00

I will enter only on breakout! If we do get to the 78.6% retracement level @ 1.1000, I will position. The 75% Long/Short ratio at Oanda suggests a short-term rally, but for a lasting bottom we've got to see a "flip" in positioning -- i.e. a sudden switch by the majority to a Net Short position. Then we might have a true bottom.

UsdCad is retracing the entire run from 1970 -- Jan 2002 and has crossed the 61.8% fib & is just shy of the 78.6 @ 1.1000. Core support, dating back to 1978 has slowed down this freight train some.

Lowest RSI weekly reading in June 2003 -- divergence galore; players banking on divergence alone can be found in low-cost hospitals all around the world.

I've swing traded this beauty very gently -- low leverage plays, profitable but not worthy of substantial merit.

She's got to retrace the drop from May 2005 sooner or later -- that will be a nice run. I shall partake of her bounty, but only on breakout!

ID, know any other establishment that puts out accurate Long/Short ratios, other than Oanda?

EurUsd: As straight as I can say it, friends or no friends!

2006-03-01T11:41:00.000+01:00

EurUsd is declining in a large degree A-B-C pattern. Stated another way, the decline from December 31st, 2004 is NOT a 5-waver down!

Trying to put 5-waver labels on the run into 1640 will engender considerable difficulty later on.

It is best that one resolves these difficulties asap and has plenty of powder ready for the large degree wave C down, which is yet to come, perhaps later this year -- we are still a ways from this, but preparation is the ticket here.

Any which way you cut it, EurUsd ain't in a '5' down!

:) Peace brothers!

Nikkei: EW study continues .....

2006-03-01T05:52:00.000+01:00

ID,

alternate: A large wave IV triangle that spans decades is the appropriate punishment for 200 years of bullishness, 2 world wars and millions killed in Asia. If I was calling the shots, I would have China gobble them up -- but there's always the possibility that Uncle George might just make them the next state. :)

OK, thanks -- the (a) (b) (c) longer leg view is now clear as to what you had previously meant.

Regarding your valid point about wave 3 being only 100% of wave 1, which would therefore bring Nikkei close to zero-- not impossible, but unlikely? .... see my take below ...

It soy-tenly can! Wave 3 can terminate a market at zero and bankrupt it regardless the Fibonacci ratio matching up at the point of death -- to see the full extent of the damage one would have to continue on into the afterlife to see the actual termination point, hehehehehe. :)

A country that has started 2 world wars, slaughtered millions in Asia, still predominantly bullish for the most part -- a country with the likes of Honda and Toyota still in raging bullmarkets -- after just 13+ years of correction of the whopper prior run, they're now in a new raging bullmarket?

If so then their bearmarket has been more like a picnic. :)

If everybody agreed on the count there'd be no fun -- ... said the englishman to the indian, "its very strange that you have so many clocks in your house -- all showing different times!" ..... replied the indian, "no, my friend, what would be idiotic would be to have so many clocks all showing the same time!"

USDJPY: An alternate count!

2006-03-01T05:01:00.000+01:00

Still inviting analysis from others, but kindly be more specific as to your caveats etc. -- a chart showing your points is preferred.

We are still only talking about the long-term view -- let's not mix this up with trading views.

See the 2 yellow ellipses in the chart -- the first is a definite triangle, the second is also a possible triangle but I'm not yet convinced.

Presented are my 2 counts.

Action between 121 and 100 will certainly give me the clue as to whether UsdJpy will break the heavy resistance @ 121 or take out ultimate support @ approx. 100.

Somewhere between now and the next few weeks there should be a revelation in this regard.

Until that time, no long-term funds are being placed.

Market Update - 28 Feb 06

2006-02-28T23:27:00.000+01:00

USDX
Down to 89.90/70 to 88.7. Below that down to 88.05 to 87.22
Above 90.40/65 continuation above 91 and above 92.63

JPY
Now it is right on target (I expected 115.5)
Down to 113/112.90
Above 117.80 could be first good indication of a continuation above 121.38 top, if it is to continue down then this ongoing correction would most probably stay below 116.80/90 my preferred view is still down but changed in the part that this whole action from the 121.38 top is not clearly a reversal pattern so we could expect to see a continuation up above the 121.38 top from some of the lower levels.

EUR
above 1.1950 to 1.2 to 1.2025 to continue down
below 1.1890 to 1.1825 to continue down to 1.15/14

CAD
down

GBP
Above 0.7436 up to 1.7655 to 1.7700/7750
to continue down to 1.69/68 to 1.66

AUD
Above 0.7436 up to 0.7480/85 to continue down.
Below 0.7385 could indicate down to 0.67 - Below 0.7350 is good confirmation
So could be a low risk short from either current levels or little above @ 0.7480, preferably second. Also breaking below 0.7410 will be a first sign of weakness.

Bear: Long to short ratios could be used as a good contrary indicator, since if you see the Open Trades summary on Oanda, there are never more than 15% of all open trades in profit.
In fact since we spoke yesterday, Long to Short on CAD move to even More Net long, and the profitable positions fell from just below 10% to now around 5%

Axiom #1: The secret is to go sideways between the home runs

2006-02-28T17:08:00.000+01:00

...... and not lose much during periods of market indecision.

That is what I did -- took a few days off, had a ball and did anything but the market.

I have alot of catching up to do as I see many new posts.

Just to let you all know that I've not forgotten about your contibutions on my UsdJpy long-term play postulates; this week I shall be going thru' the charts again and will post answers to ID's piercing EW questions.

Doing an EW analysis is a time consuming effort and anybody who helps me out in this endeavor can rest assured -- I'm in his debt -- and can call it in anytime.

Risk: Playing it safe is dangerous!

2006-02-28T16:22:00.000+01:00

Rule #1: Don't lose money!
Rule #2: Playing it safe is dangerous.

An update:

Positions unchanged; EurUsd (Long) from Friday made a new low, but UsdJpy (Short, also from friday & earlier too) is paying handsomely for my coffin, which, after reading Bear's call, suggests that this might be a good time to visit MoneyTec, socialize with the cuddly, exasperating winners that live there and get some fundamental data on coffins and burial sites.

My call? Still the same -- EurUsd, GbpUsd etc., heading north to close out the rally that started November 16th. After the rally the $ will decimate every mother's son on the planet as he heads for 96-100 (USD Index).

What can I say? Hope I'm not wrong; but if so, I can turn on a dime and go with my buddy.

Rule #1: "Don't lose money!" ... continues to thrive untrammeled!

Rule #3: "Make money!" ..... continues to teach me the lesson of "market patience" as I've made zip since Feb 10. Although nicely profitable for the entire move from Jan 23rd, the turns are where the fun is and this particular one has shown me depths of deceit that ain't even been discovered yet, hehehehe.

Why I answered this newspaper ad, I'll never know -- "Men wanted for hazardous journey. Small wages. Bitter cold. Long months of complete darkness. Constant danger. Safe return doubtful. Honor and recognition in case of success."

:) :) :)