USDX

And right on the 61.8 fib @ 90.79 (current daily bar high 90.78) form the Nov 16 @ 92.63 to Jan 24 low @ 87.81 sugesting at least a correction down to around 90.35/25 to 89.55

Pay attention to JPY. I have a strong confidence it is going down to 110.7
ID

DX in action; a blast from 2006-2007 between 96 & 100.

The final showdown:

On the far side the lone gunfighter is my friend, DX. Facing him are the 3 gunfighters sent by Euro -- AUD, CAD & GBP. Behind to the far right are the 3 horses they rode to the station.

DX arrivedby train, getting off on the far side of the platform.

He wears no gunbelt, but unbeknownst to the others, there is a gun in the handle of his duffelbag -- within easy reach.

Here's how the last words of CAD are to go down in history:


DX: Did you bring a horse for me?

CAD: (Laughing derisively) No, looks like we're shy one horse. (GBP and AUD laugh and chuckle, showing nothing but hatred and disdain for the lone gunfighter).

DX: (shaking his head, holding their gaze firmly, relaxed and expressionless) No, you've brought two, too many!

CAD, AUD & GBP: (The laughter stops, as fear and consternation grip them -- they were thinking; how can he be so confident when he has no gun? ... especially when he was foolish enough to come alone?)

The draw starts -- results will be revealed @ DX = 96 or 100 in 2006-2007.

DX arriving @ Fib 161.8 on 2 cylinders only!

GBPUSD good odds for entry on 4-hr soon

GBPUSD 4-hr entry close at hand for (?) days hold. Current price 1.7389 @ Alpari Feb 13th, 2005, 12:00 bar.

Shortly on USDX

Just shortly on USDX since I've screen it. Charts tomorrow.
Now the drop from Nov 16 has a finished ZZ structure and now the question is if it is a possible XX so we can see a continuation above the high, or is (A) or (W) of a possible Flat or DZ (Double ZigZag).
If it is a part of a Flat, than the move up from recent low (87.83) could qualify for a developing ZZ with A finished IM and possibly B finished so C in progress for a retest of a high for a nice (B) of a Flat, or
if it is a part of a DZ, then this recent move up could qualify for an (X) of a possible DZ down, so we can expect the next move to be a ZZ down (which has internal structure of 5-3-5 or IM - any 3w - IM)

In general, and I'll try writing more on this, I think 2006 could turn into an endless range trading, although as I wrote few times before on MTec, there are some serious structural weaknesses in US economy and society that could trigger some serious shifts in the "mood". I don't expect it to happen soon, but I would not rule it out neither even that it seems that the US bull is still raging.
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GBP Intraday

GBP risky
Well it is either me, or market should clear a bit, but I really don't have a quite clear picture on the development right now, same as other pairs I've already published except JPY.
Below 1.7347 should min retest 1.7074
It looks like in a 4th of an IM move down, and in such case, it will have to stay below w1 low @ 1.7634
Above that, Resistance around 1.7540 and above that to 1.7680/7700 to 1.7850/8094

Possible longer term downside targets are 1.6820 to 1.6410

ID

AUD Intraday

AUD looks like it has to go just little more down to 0.7347 but below that will open down to 0.6638
However it is possible that it will bounce up from 0.7347 and in such case resistance can be seen at 0.7440/50/87 and 0.7510/65 toward 0.8
ID

CAD Intraday

CAD will have to stay below 1.1562 to confirm continuation down
Above that price level needs to break above 1.1576/80 to extend to 1.1679/88 to 1.1745/60
Pretty fuzzy picture however. If you look down there are to many first of a first of a... on the up side too many running Bs. Will wait for some more clues to unveil.
Most probable direction intraday is down to 1.1511 to 1.1497 second being more probable in such case.
Longer term outlook is still still very CAD bullish, at least I'm bullish on both Canadian Dollar as well as on some CAD stocks.
In fact on the Central Banks monetary policy dovish/hawkish scale, I expect this year CAD to be on the upper hawkish scale above EU and US. And since I'm on that subject, I expect BoJ (JPY) to flip on the Hawkish side this year, and BoE (GBP) to stay on the Dovish side.
More on rates later this week.
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JPY Intraday

And here it is, the first analysis in this new Market Direction.
I wish to thank my dear friend Joseph you know him better as Trader01, for accepting my invitation to contribute to this Blog, and I hope many of you will join us too.
Now let's make this short and get to business, market started to move.
I'll start with USDJPY
Later I will return to the longer term chart to see the possibilities there, but for now just a brief Intraday to short term.
I expect continuation down to 111<>110.7 and below.
I see the latest downward development as a possible IM move with 1-2 finished i of 3 finished with ii of 3 possibly finished or in progress and to finish around 118.18/42 but should not finish above 118.93. Above that we will have a probable retest of the 121.38 high and above.
Break below 117.32/23 would be a first signal of a possible continuation down, but only a break below wave i of 3 low @ 116.87 will confirm. Targets down on confirmation 115.44/115/111.58/110.61
If on the other hand we have a Unfinished ZZ up from 113.41 12 Jan 2006 low, then we have an A-B finished with C just started from the recent 116.87 low. Min target for this C could be 61.8% extension of wave A @ 120.56 and next is the 121.38 High.
ID

CAD, AUD and GBP to follow shortly, since the market is moving I will post as I write. Later USDX and EUR, possibly EURJPY since I've noticed a nice settup there, GBPJPY and NZDUSD

My areas of contribution

May this venture flourish and prosper, stay its course resolutely, encourage thought and may the participants acquire the ultimate market gift -- prescience!

The engine: US Dollar Index on 4-hr., daily, weekly and monthly timeframes.
Crude Oil, Spot Gold, CRB Index, Fed Funds Rate, 3-month Libor Rates & International Bond Yield Differentials.

The Driver: USD -- EUR -- YEN .... which will dominate for the current cycle?

For this cycle:

The structural frame: EURUSD

Driver's seat: USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD

Passenger seats: USDCAD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDTHB

Trunk: USDBRL, USDMXN, USDINR