Sunday Notes 17/3/2026

These are my medium to longer term views on the market directions. I’ll start with Crude Oil since it is in focus.

I’m showing the charts below just so you can get better picture on Oil vs Gasoline prices. Remember the price of gasoline at the pump in 2008, when crude oil (Brent not WTI) was over $147 a barrel - max price of gas was $4.10.

Let’s do some interesting math:

Note: I am using WTI prices for the math and showing Brent in parenthesis just for reference.

From the 2008 peak $140 oil ($147 Brent), $4.10 gas) to the April 2020 low ($19.23 oil ($17.28 Brent), $1.77 gas)

Oil: −86.26%
Gas: −56.83%

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Next move up brought oil to $114.28 ($135.84 Brent) (gas $4.87) in March 2022
Comparing peaks: $140 → $114.28

Oil: −18.37%
Gas: +18.78% (Oil significantly lower, but gas still higher)

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Then from that high at $114.28 ($135.84 Brent) ($4.87 gas), oil fell to $59.55 ($58.67 Brent) ($3.13 gas)

Oil: −47.90%
Gas: −35.73%

Gas prices at the pump do not move in lockstep with crude oil — they seem to tend to follow and exceed Oil price highs one one hand, but they are stickier on the way down (impacted by broader inflationary pressures, refining margins, and other geo political factors).

NOTE: I am using the prices of Brent Crude Oil from Tradingview and the gas prices from Macrotrends.

Make your own conclusions.

Crude Oil (Brent)

Looking forward
The geopolitical factors in play at their worst.
Brent has already hit $120 and is trading around $103 (at the moment of the publishing)
If it breaks above 135.84 then min. targets. on the UP side are 152<>177

Probable targets UP are from 210<>250<>330.

I'm afraid to the the same math in EU picture. (here important role plays the EURUSD rate too, not only the price of Crude Oil). Just for example:

13 Jun 2022
Brent Crude: 119.7 €/barrel
EU Euro 95: 1.9913 €/litre

01 Dec 2025
Brent Crude: 55.0 €/barrel
EU Euro 95: 1.5586 €/litre

Brent Crude (€/barrel) −54.05%
EU Euro 95 avg (€/litre) −21.73%

On the chart below you will see that because of the EUR to USD rate highest high is on Jun 2022 not that in 2008. Also you will see that gaps between the blue line and orange line are bigger on EU chart than on the US chart.

Link to the source


Gold

Currently Gold should be contained between 4,600<>3,900 before any advancement above currently established Highest High. Most probable price target 4,335.
On the upper side targets are above 6,700 (this will be more clear when correction finishes)
But after that I would expect a major reversal downwards (to very approximate estimate until new high is established: 4300 to 2700)

Crypto
My take is that it is still very difficult to find a justification that there is a reversal into an uptrend in place. It is in my view more probable that crypto has finished the first leg of a large correction, meaning we will see a leg up (but limited) before it get down again.
We need to closely monitor.

All Major Indexes
I expect one more push up (max.12-20% from current prices - take it very approximately and just for reference where to pay attention to the developments), before major correction down of min 40%.

Sunday Notes, May 29

As I wrote in previous post: "Based on the structure of the upward correction from recent lows, I suspect larger correction is not over and we can expect possible breaks below recent bottoms both in BTC and ETH".

Unfortunately that turned to be right (at least with ETH). 

ETH failed to stay above previous low and is more likely to continue down to mentioned lower level targets 1,453/57 and below that to 1,050<>874.

BTC for the moment is still above it's recent low 26,591 but as I said before I'm not impressed with the structure of the move from that low onward. It looks more of a correction than to a reversal, so it's more probable to expect continuation down. A break below 26,591 to confirm that that will open targets at 25931<>24,588 below that to 14,835.

On the flip side "Break above first 52,773 and then 59,891 is the first indication of a possible continuation of the uptrend to new time highs, but just after a break above 68, 958 will be a confirmation".

GOLD

Gold down to 1,663 to possibly 1,405.

CRUDE

down to min 90.55 below that 76.56<>62.57

Break above 135.84 to confirm up to 168. 

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DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2022

Sunday Notes

Crude Oil

Crude is in correction down to first 84.65 and then 71.80 before it continues up above 147.

ETH

As I wrote previously ETH is in a bigger correction down to most probably 1,863<>1,633 and the moment is to finish second leg in the zone of 3,434/3,513/3,832.

BTC

The move is to finish second leg of the correction in the zone of 47,387/50,913/55,397 to continue down to the zone of 29,221<>26,393.

In my focus

Cardano and Solana are in my focus.

if ADA stays above 0.68 and breaks above 1.35<>1.37 it could be a good indication for possible break above all time high at 3.101

SOL is something to consider seriously but it should stay above 56.115 to justify and only a break above first 220 and than 260 to confirm.

  

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DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2022