Sunday Notes 17/3/2026

These are my medium to longer term views on the market directions. I’ll start with Crude Oil since it is in focus.

I’m showing the charts below just so you can get better picture on Oil vs Gasoline prices. Remember the price of gasoline at the pump in 2008, when crude oil (Brent not WTI) was over $147 a barrel - max price of gas was $4.10.

Let’s do some interesting math:

Note: I am using WTI prices for the math and showing Brent in parenthesis just for reference.

From the 2008 peak $140 oil ($147 Brent), $4.10 gas) to the April 2020 low ($19.23 oil ($17.28 Brent), $1.77 gas)

Oil: −86.26%
Gas: −56.83%

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Next move up brought oil to $114.28 ($135.84 Brent) (gas $4.87) in March 2022
Comparing peaks: $140 → $114.28

Oil: −18.37%
Gas: +18.78% (Oil significantly lower, but gas still higher)

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Then from that high at $114.28 ($135.84 Brent) ($4.87 gas), oil fell to $59.55 ($58.67 Brent) ($3.13 gas)

Oil: −47.90%
Gas: −35.73%

Gas prices at the pump do not move in lockstep with crude oil — they seem to tend to follow and exceed Oil price highs one one hand, but they are stickier on the way down (impacted by broader inflationary pressures, refining margins, and other geo political factors).

NOTE: I am using the prices of Brent Crude Oil from Tradingview and the gas prices from Macrotrends.

Make your own conclusions.

Crude Oil (Brent)

Looking forward
The geopolitical factors in play at their worst.
Brent has already hit $120 and is trading around $103 (at the moment of the publishing)
If it breaks above 135.84 then min. targets. on the UP side are 152<>177

Probable targets UP are from 210<>250<>330.

I'm afraid to the the same math in EU picture. (here important role plays the EURUSD rate too, not only the price of Crude Oil). Just for example:

13 Jun 2022
Brent Crude: 119.7 €/barrel
EU Euro 95: 1.9913 €/litre

01 Dec 2025
Brent Crude: 55.0 €/barrel
EU Euro 95: 1.5586 €/litre

Brent Crude (€/barrel) −54.05%
EU Euro 95 avg (€/litre) −21.73%

On the chart below you will see that because of the EUR to USD rate highest high is on Jun 2022 not that in 2008. Also you will see that gaps between the blue line and orange line are bigger on EU chart than on the US chart.

Link to the source


Gold

Currently Gold should be contained between 4,600<>3,900 before any advancement above currently established Highest High. Most probable price target 4,335.
On the upper side targets are above 6,700 (this will be more clear when correction finishes)
But after that I would expect a major reversal downwards (to very approximate estimate until new high is established: 4300 to 2700)

Crypto
My take is that it is still very difficult to find a justification that there is a reversal into an uptrend in place. It is in my view more probable that crypto has finished the first leg of a large correction, meaning we will see a leg up (but limited) before it get down again.
We need to closely monitor.

All Major Indexes
I expect one more push up (max.12-20% from current prices - take it very approximately and just for reference where to pay attention to the developments), before major correction down of min 40%.

Sunday Notes, May 29

As I wrote in previous post: "Based on the structure of the upward correction from recent lows, I suspect larger correction is not over and we can expect possible breaks below recent bottoms both in BTC and ETH".

Unfortunately that turned to be right (at least with ETH). 

ETH failed to stay above previous low and is more likely to continue down to mentioned lower level targets 1,453/57 and below that to 1,050<>874.

BTC for the moment is still above it's recent low 26,591 but as I said before I'm not impressed with the structure of the move from that low onward. It looks more of a correction than to a reversal, so it's more probable to expect continuation down. A break below 26,591 to confirm that that will open targets at 25931<>24,588 below that to 14,835.

On the flip side "Break above first 52,773 and then 59,891 is the first indication of a possible continuation of the uptrend to new time highs, but just after a break above 68, 958 will be a confirmation".

GOLD

Gold down to 1,663 to possibly 1,405.

CRUDE

down to min 90.55 below that 76.56<>62.57

Break above 135.84 to confirm up to 168. 

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DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2022

Sunday Notes (14 March 2022)

ETH and BTC about to hit previously stated targets down (updated targets for ETH 1,865.80 to 1,843 and BTC 30,886 to 26,403)

Both finished second legs (up) much lower and earlier then projected, indicating weakness.

Still, a fall below 2,160.60 in ETH and 32,937 in BTC to confirm this.

Break above 3,288.5 in ETH and 43,222 in BTC to confirm previous targets for the finishing of the second leg of the correction down (wave b on the BTC chart image from few posts back).

Strong bounce of the mentioned targets to end this correction down would be a good indication of the most probable continuation of the uptrend in this crypto currencies and a definite break above 4,864.90 in ETH and 68,958 in BTC would be considered a confirmation for the continuation of the uptrend which would be a min 1.6 x the length of the first wave projected from the bottom of the second wave (the end of the correction, possibly in the mentioned targets). For ETH that would be a min. of 9,715 but more probably to 14,566 to 19,418 and for BTC a min. of 137,816 but more probably 206,674 to 275,532.

BUT! Mind that we still need first a solid finish of the correction and confirmation with the breaks of the previous all time tops. 

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DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2022

Sunday Notes

Crude Oil

Crude is in correction down to first 84.65 and then 71.80 before it continues up above 147.

ETH

As I wrote previously ETH is in a bigger correction down to most probably 1,863<>1,633 and the moment is to finish second leg in the zone of 3,434/3,513/3,832.

BTC

The move is to finish second leg of the correction in the zone of 47,387/50,913/55,397 to continue down to the zone of 29,221<>26,393.

In my focus

Cardano and Solana are in my focus.

if ADA stays above 0.68 and breaks above 1.35<>1.37 it could be a good indication for possible break above all time high at 3.101

SOL is something to consider seriously but it should stay above 56.115 to justify and only a break above first 220 and than 260 to confirm.

  

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DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2022

BTC

BTC seems to be in a larger correction down to 29,221<>26,393.

BTC seems to have finished Cycle wave I and is in a Cycle wave II correction down.

(Note: Cycle wave is a wave that takes one year to several years, or even several decades to finish). 

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DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2021

Sunday Notes 3 Jan 2020

ALK
MSE (Macedonian Stock Exchange) for some time now is getting some movement and broke important resistance levels giving room for bullish thinking.
Short forecast for ALK
ALK up into 13209<>14550 target zone to correct down to max 9926<>8497 (bellow that possible reconsideration) up at 19625<>24295<>37796.
Any break bellow 6700 will negate bullish views and open alternative view.

BTCUSD
did not played that previous post bullish view, and more than just not getting confirmation for uptrend scenario, BTC at the moment giving more signals to the down side than to the upside.
Probability of testing the 5470 level rose significantly. Fall below 6477 to confirm 5470 target.
At the moment development and the structure of the movement from previous 6477 low does not indicate possible development for a reversal up but suggests continuation of the correction down. Any movement up should be contained bellow 7842.
Just break above 13764 will confirm uptrend, break below 3224 will definitely negate the UPtrend scenario and confirm we have final leg of the larger correction down from the all time top at 19891 still in place and a serious weakness of the BTC.


EURUSD
played well from previous post, it finished the correction right after the posting and developed fairly good structure to confirm possible reversal up as I forecast, but still far from definite confirmation. Should stay above 1.09812 not to negate possible reversal up. Any break below (even 1 pip) will negate reversal and will indicate continuation of the correction down to previously mentioned levels 1.0865<>1.0814<>1.076. Cautiously bullish at the moment. We need to closely monitor development for more definite indications.


DISCLAIMER Trading involves high degree of risk. Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. © Copyright Dejan Iliev 2019

Sunday Notes 29 Sep

More than a year ago I started forecasting BTCUSD for a friend in a series called Sunday Notes written in Macedonian sent in a private chat on Viber.
I am now continuing to follow BTCUSD here.

BTCUSD

In the previous posts to my friend I wrote that BTC is in a correction to a zone of  9730<>8490<>7240 and I also forecast that second leg will be contained in the 11115<>11662 up to 12358 (on 29 Jul ). It made it's high at 12325 to start it's final leg of correction down to the lower zone, and as I wrote in the following message (from 2nd of Aug) it will most probably go to 7240.

Now, the fall to 7240 is in it's final approach and the correction will most probably finish there to continue up to first break 13764 and then the all time high at 19891 (Bitfinex) to continue up to min target zone of 24278<>34818 (base on assumption that correction ends at 7240. An update of this levels after finishing of the correction).
Fall below 7240 wont negate this scenario but will indicate weakness. Fall below 5470 will raise serious doubt and open door to completely opposite development, and the break below 3224 will definitely negate the UPtrend scenario and confirm we have final leg of the larger correction down from the all time top at 19891 still in place and a serious weakness of the BTC.
At the moment I am more inclined to the UPtrend scenario.


EURUSD

Almost touching (40 pips above) the upper level of the forecast zone from previous post (1.0865<>1.0814<>1.076) and not showing definite signs of finished correction and reversal up at the moment of writing, but needs to be monitored closely. 
It will very possibly finish the correction in the next few hours to a day to continue up above Feb 2018 high of 1.2555.



NOTICE: These are not Trade recommendations or advices and I don't accept any responsibility what soever.