Sunday Notes

These are my medium to longer term views on the market directions. I’ll start with Crude Oil since it is in focus.

I’m showing this chart below just so you consider that it is not just the actual price of oil, but other factors too. Think about the price of gas at the pump in 2008, when crude oil was over $147 a barrel... the max price of gas was $4.10.

Let’s do some math:

1. From the 2008 peak ($147 oil, $4.10 gas) to the April 2020 low ($17.28 oil, $1.77 gas)

Oil: −88.24%

Gas: −56.83%

2. Next move up brought oil to $135.84 (gas $4.87) in March 2022 Comparing peaks: $147 → $135.84

Oil: −7.59%

Gas: +18.78% (Oil slightly lower, but gas significantly higher)

3. Then from that high at $135.84 ($4.87 gas), oil fell to $58.67 ($3.13 gas)

Oil: −56.80%

Gas: −35.73%

Gas prices at the pump do not move in lockstep with crude oil — they seem to tend to follow and exceed Oil price highs one one hand, but they are stickier on the way down and are above the Oil price lows (impacted by broader inflationary pressures, refining margins, and other factors).

NOTE: I am using the prices of Brent Crude Oil from Tradingview and the gas prices from Macrotrends.

Make your own conclusions.

Crude Oil (Brent)

Looking forward
The geopolitical factors in play at their worst.
Brent has already hit $120 and is trading around $103 at the moment
If it breaks above 135.84 then min. targets. on the UP side are 152<>177

Probable targets UP are from 210<>250<>330.

I'm afraid to the the same math in EU picture. (here important role plays the EURUSD too, not only the price of Crude Oil). Just for example:

13 Jun 2022
Brent Crude: 119.7 €/barrel
EU Euro 95: 1.9913 €/litre

01 Dec 2025
Brent Crude: 55.0 €/barrel
EU Euro 95: 1.5586 €/litre

Brent Crude (€/barrel) −54.05%
EU Euro 95 avg (€/litre) −21.73%

Link to the source


Gold

Currently Gold should be contained between 4,600<>3,900 before any advancement above currently established Highest High.
On the upper side targets are above 6,700 (this will be more clear when correction finishes)
But after that I would expect a major reversal downwards (to very approximate estimate until new high is established: 4300 to 2700)

Crypto
My take is that it is still very difficult to find a justification that there is a reversal into an uptrend in place. It is in my view more probable that crypto has finished the first leg of a large correction, meaning we will see a leg up (but limited) before it get down again.
We need to closely monitor.

Sunday Notes, May 29

As I wrote in previous post: "Based on the structure of the upward correction from recent lows, I suspect larger correction is not over and we can expect possible breaks below recent bottoms both in BTC and ETH".

Unfortunately that turned to be right (at least with ETH). 

ETH failed to stay above previous low and is more likely to continue down to mentioned lower level targets 1,453/57 and below that to 1,050<>874.

BTC for the moment is still above it's recent low 26,591 but as I said before I'm not impressed with the structure of the move from that low onward. It looks more of a correction than to a reversal, so it's more probable to expect continuation down. A break below 26,591 to confirm that that will open targets at 25931<>24,588 below that to 14,835.

On the flip side "Break above first 52,773 and then 59,891 is the first indication of a possible continuation of the uptrend to new time highs, but just after a break above 68, 958 will be a confirmation".

GOLD

Gold down to 1,663 to possibly 1,405.

CRUDE

down to min 90.55 below that 76.56<>62.57

Break above 135.84 to confirm up to 168. 

____________

DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2022

Sunday Notes (14 May 2022)

BTC and ETH right on the target (see post from Dec, 26 2021) with ETH overshooting a bit below forecasted target so it opened a possibility for 1,476<>1,453. 

BTC still needs to stay above 26,403<>24,800 and fail to do will indicate weakness and open next level targets down as a possibility. 

So we still need a strong bounce of this latest lows to have just an indication of possible bottom and end of the larger correction from previous all time high tops.

Based on the structure of the upward correction from recent lows, I suspect larger correction is not over and we can expect possible breaks below recent bottoms both in BTC and ETH.

BTC

if it stays above 26,591 short term it's min targets up are first 34,505<>36,590<>38,126 and 42,775 later, but after a small correction more probably up to 47,774<>52,773.

Break above first 52,773 and then 59,891 is the first indication of a possible continuation of the uptrend to new time highs, but just after a break above 68, 958 will be a confirmation.

Break below 26,591 negates this and opens lover level targets.

ETH

if stays above 1,763 bottom, min targets up would be 2,495<>2,948 and break above first 3,680 and then 4,201 first indication of a continuation up, but just a break above 4,864.90 is a confirmation to that.

Break below 1,763 will negate this and opens lower level targets 1,476<>1,453.

_____________
DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2022

Sunday Notes (14 March 2022)

ETH and BTC about to hit previously stated targets down (updated targets for ETH 1,865.80 to 1,843 and BTC 30,886 to 26,403)

Both finished second legs (up) much lower and earlier then projected, indicating weakness.

Still, a fall below 2,160.60 in ETH and 32,937 in BTC to confirm this.

Break above 3,288.5 in ETH and 43,222 in BTC to confirm previous targets for the finishing of the second leg of the correction down (wave b on the BTC chart image from few posts back).

Strong bounce of the mentioned targets to end this correction down would be a good indication of the most probable continuation of the uptrend in this crypto currencies and a definite break above 4,864.90 in ETH and 68,958 in BTC would be considered a confirmation for the continuation of the uptrend which would be a min 1.6 x the length of the first wave projected from the bottom of the second wave (the end of the correction, possibly in the mentioned targets). For ETH that would be a min. of 9,715 but more probably to 14,566 to 19,418 and for BTC a min. of 137,816 but more probably 206,674 to 275,532.

BUT! Mind that we still need first a solid finish of the correction and confirmation with the breaks of the previous all time tops. 

_____________
DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2022

Sunday Notes

Crude Oil

Crude is in correction down to first 84.65 and then 71.80 before it continues up above 147.

ETH

As I wrote previously ETH is in a bigger correction down to most probably 1,863<>1,633 and the moment is to finish second leg in the zone of 3,434/3,513/3,832.

BTC

The move is to finish second leg of the correction in the zone of 47,387/50,913/55,397 to continue down to the zone of 29,221<>26,393.

In my focus

Cardano and Solana are in my focus.

if ADA stays above 0.68 and breaks above 1.35<>1.37 it could be a good indication for possible break above all time high at 3.101

SOL is something to consider seriously but it should stay above 56.115 to justify and only a break above first 220 and than 260 to confirm.

  

_____________

DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2022

Major Indexes

Major Indexes are in a final 5th of a 5th to finish Supercycle degree 1st waves. 

That means we can be facing huge correction down of min 40% to possible 60%.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DAX, CAC40 all seems to be in a final stage of their Supercycle degree wave I (which is all trading from the first day ever till the possible top they will make soon).

Only UKX seems to have a different scenario in play, where it possibly finished Supercycle wave I in 2018 and also possibly finished Supercycle wave II correction and is in uptrend in Supercycle wave III, but more probable is that it is still into wave B of the Supercycle wave II which means it still has one wave down (wave C) to finish the correction before continues up with Supercycle wave III. Still stands better than other Indexes.

NIKKEI 225 is also a different story, it is in uptrend since 2009 is about to finish that uptrend at arround 34,600 and enter into correction, but it is of a much smaller degree wave that above mentioned indexes. It will most probably end its correction at 24,000 and continue up.

(Note: corrections are always between 38,2%, 50% and 61,8% of the length of the wave, regardless of the degree of the wave. I wrote 40-60 indicatively, Wave degrees are related to time it takes to finish the wave).

_____________

DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2021

BTC

BTC seems to be in a larger correction down to 29,221<>26,393.

BTC seems to have finished Cycle wave I and is in a Cycle wave II correction down.

(Note: Cycle wave is a wave that takes one year to several years, or even several decades to finish). 

_____________
DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2021

GOLD

In my previous post on Saturday, October 10, 2020 I wrote:

Gold to min 1700 before continuing up to targets above 3000.

Any immediate break above previous high @ 2,089 will target min 2,373<>2,421 which could be end of wave 5, meaning we could than expect much bigger correction, ie 1,500<>980.

However, I am not convinced this ongoing correction is over and we have a continuation up. So, on the down side, break bellow 1,673 could mean down to 1,595 to 1,359 to then target 2,373<>2,421.

____________
DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2021

ETHUSD Sunday Notes

ETHUSD to continue its correction down to min 3,009 with most probable target zone to finish this correction down is 1,863<>1,633.

On the upper side, any break above previous high @ 4,864.90 will open targets to min. 5,720 to 6,810.

It seems that ETH same as BTC has also finished Cycle wave I @ 4864.90 high and it's in a larger correction Cycle wave II. If true most probable target of the Cycle wave II is 1,863<>1,633.

On possible continuation up in Cycle wave III after the correction (Cycle wave II), min target zone will be from  9,700 to 14,570.

_____________

DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2021

GOLD

Gold to min 1700 before continuing up to targets above 3000.

DISCLAIMER Trading involves high degree of risk. Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. © Copyright Dejan Iliev 2020