ETHUSD Sunday Notes

ETHUSD to continue its correction down to min 3,009 with most probable target zone to finish this correction down is 1,863<>1,633.

On the upper side, any break above previous high @ 4,864.90 will open targets to min. 5,720 to 6,810.

It seems that ETH same as BTC has also finished Cycle wave I @ 4864.90 high and it's in a larger correction Cycle wave II. If true most probable target of the Cycle wave II is 1,863<>1,633.

On possible continuation up in Cycle wave III after the correction (Cycle wave II), min target zone will be from  9,700 to 14,570.

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DISCLAIMER:
Trading involves high degree of risk! Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein.
© Copyright Dejan Iliev 2021

GOLD

Gold to min 1700 before continuing up to targets above 3000.

DISCLAIMER Trading involves high degree of risk. Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. © Copyright Dejan Iliev 2020

GOLD

Gold up to 1993.7 longer term target is 3748

DISCLAIMER Trading involves high degree of risk. Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. © Copyright Dejan Iliev 2020

EURUSD

EURUSD up to min 1.28515 to probably higher - 1.34511<>1.42207

DISCLAIMER Trading involves high degree of risk. Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assumes no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. © Copyright Dejan Iliev 2020

Sunday Notes 3 Jan 2020

ALK
MSE (Macedonian Stock Exchange) for some time now is getting some movement and broke important resistance levels giving room for bullish thinking.
Short forecast for ALK
ALK up into 13209<>14550 target zone to correct down to max 9926<>8497 (bellow that possible reconsideration) up at 19625<>24295<>37796.
Any break bellow 6700 will negate bullish views and open alternative view.

BTCUSD
did not played that previous post bullish view, and more than just not getting confirmation for uptrend scenario, BTC at the moment giving more signals to the down side than to the upside.
Probability of testing the 5470 level rose significantly. Fall below 6477 to confirm 5470 target.
At the moment development and the structure of the movement from previous 6477 low does not indicate possible development for a reversal up but suggests continuation of the correction down. Any movement up should be contained bellow 7842.
Just break above 13764 will confirm uptrend, break below 3224 will definitely negate the UPtrend scenario and confirm we have final leg of the larger correction down from the all time top at 19891 still in place and a serious weakness of the BTC.


EURUSD
played well from previous post, it finished the correction right after the posting and developed fairly good structure to confirm possible reversal up as I forecast, but still far from definite confirmation. Should stay above 1.09812 not to negate possible reversal up. Any break below (even 1 pip) will negate reversal and will indicate continuation of the correction down to previously mentioned levels 1.0865<>1.0814<>1.076. Cautiously bullish at the moment. We need to closely monitor development for more definite indications.


DISCLAIMER Trading involves high degree of risk. Past results are not indicative of future returns. idejan assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. All published here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I tend to obtain Information from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the information published here is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. © Copyright Dejan Iliev 2019

Sunday Notes 29 Sep

More than a year ago I started forecasting BTCUSD for a friend in a series called Sunday Notes written in Macedonian sent in a private chat on Viber.
I am now continuing to follow BTCUSD here.

BTCUSD

In the previous posts to my friend I wrote that BTC is in a correction to a zone of  9730<>8490<>7240 and I also forecast that second leg will be contained in the 11115<>11662 up to 12358 (on 29 Jul ). It made it's high at 12325 to start it's final leg of correction down to the lower zone, and as I wrote in the following message (from 2nd of Aug) it will most probably go to 7240.

Now, the fall to 7240 is in it's final approach and the correction will most probably finish there to continue up to first break 13764 and then the all time high at 19891 (Bitfinex) to continue up to min target zone of 24278<>34818 (base on assumption that correction ends at 7240. An update of this levels after finishing of the correction).
Fall below 7240 wont negate this scenario but will indicate weakness. Fall below 5470 will raise serious doubt and open door to completely opposite development, and the break below 3224 will definitely negate the UPtrend scenario and confirm we have final leg of the larger correction down from the all time top at 19891 still in place and a serious weakness of the BTC.
At the moment I am more inclined to the UPtrend scenario.


EURUSD

Almost touching (40 pips above) the upper level of the forecast zone from previous post (1.0865<>1.0814<>1.076) and not showing definite signs of finished correction and reversal up at the moment of writing, but needs to be monitored closely. 
It will very possibly finish the correction in the next few hours to a day to continue up above Feb 2018 high of 1.2555.



NOTICE: These are not Trade recommendations or advices and I don't accept any responsibility what soever.

Sunday Notes EUR/USD

EURUSD to finish correction down to most probably 1.0865<>1.0814<>1.076 to continue up above feb 2018 high of 1.2555
Continuation lower than said levels would most probably negate this view.

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MSE ALK 

Retrace to 5,200<>5,150<>5,090

ALK to retrace to 5200<>5150<>5090 to continue up above 5500  probably to 6079<>6270<>6579 target area.

МСЕ АЛК надолу до 5200<>5150<>5090 за потоа да продолжи над 5500 најверојатно до зоната 6079<>6270<>6579.

NOTICE: This are not Trade recommendations or advises and I don't accept any responsibility what soever.

Dow Jones reversing?

Did DJI hit the bottom?
It's on my target from previous post 6840<>6550<>6040, low @ 6469.95 (source Google Finance) and developing a structure that could indicate a very possible reversal i.e. formed bottom and beginning of a new uptrend cycle.

ID



NOTICE: This are not Trade recommendations or advices and I don't accept any responsibility what soever.

End of THE Recession?

Hi there, I wrote this to a friend of mine a week ago and it's something I had in mind for some time. I took a look at the Dow and I searched to find a chart of adjusted Dow for it's real value (represented in Gold) but I found just this chart of inflation adjusted DJ which is probably very similar picture. As you can see, while the DJIA (blue line) made new high at the beginning of 2007 the adjusted Dow (red line) never made it so high. Based on the adjusted DJIA chart, it is quite possible that we are living the last leg of the larger correction that started 2000. :) Just to cheer you up. There are some other indications supporting this view. IMHO we need to wait for just a few months more to see the developing. On my charts from few days ago, you'll see I forecast DJI to go up to 10,200 (it's not actually shown but it can be seen based on the fib ext tool points...) before it dips possibly to end this correction down to 6840<>6550<>6040.

If this is correct EW (Elliott Wave) count than we can expect developing of a new UP trend very soon... :)

Few months ago I said I expect Dow Jones US Home Construction Index to end it's fall, and it now shows some indication of a possible reversal. This supports previously said, but it will take time to be confirmed. (.DJUSHB on Google Finance you can see a possible IM - Impulsive wave 1 up finished....) I was doing some analysis on few Forex pairs, but still far from being in shape. I mainly look for short term moves, still trying to grasp the bigger picture. (still considering few options for my future posts