Sunday Notes 17/3/2026

These are my medium to longer term views on the market directions. I’ll start with Crude Oil since it is in focus.

I’m showing the charts below just so you can get better picture on Oil vs Gasoline prices. Remember the price of gasoline at the pump in 2008, when crude oil (Brent not WTI) was over $147 a barrel - max price of gas was $4.10.

Let’s do some interesting math:

1. From the 2008 peak ($147 oil, $4.10 gas) to the April 2020 low ($17.28 oil, $1.77 gas)

Oil: −88.24%

Gas: −56.83%

2. Next move up brought oil to $135.84 (gas $4.87) in March 2022 Comparing peaks: $147 → $135.84

Oil: −7.59%

Gas: +18.78% (Oil slightly lower, but gas significantly higher)

3. Then from that high at $135.84 ($4.87 gas), oil fell to $58.67 ($3.13 gas)

Oil: −56.80%

Gas: −35.73%

Gas prices at the pump do not move in lockstep with crude oil — they seem to tend to follow and exceed Oil price highs one one hand, but they are stickier on the way down (impacted by broader inflationary pressures, refining margins, and other geo political factors).

NOTE: I am using the prices of Brent Crude Oil from Tradingview and the gas prices from Macrotrends.

Make your own conclusions.

Crude Oil (Brent)

Looking forward
The geopolitical factors in play at their worst.
Brent has already hit $120 and is trading around $103 at the moment
If it breaks above 135.84 then min. targets. on the UP side are 152<>177

Probable targets UP are from 210<>250<>330.

I'm afraid to the the same math in EU picture. (here important role plays the EURUSD too, not only the price of Crude Oil). Just for example:

13 Jun 2022
Brent Crude: 119.7 €/barrel
EU Euro 95: 1.9913 €/litre

01 Dec 2025
Brent Crude: 55.0 €/barrel
EU Euro 95: 1.5586 €/litre

Brent Crude (€/barrel) −54.05%
EU Euro 95 avg (€/litre) −21.73%

On the chart below you will see that because of the EUR to USD rate highest high is on Jun 2022 not that in 2008. Also you will see that gaps between the blue line and orange line are bigger on EU chart than on the US chart.

Link to the source


Gold

Currently Gold should be contained between 4,600<>3,900 before any advancement above currently established Highest High.
On the upper side targets are above 6,700 (this will be more clear when correction finishes)
But after that I would expect a major reversal downwards (to very approximate estimate until new high is established: 4300 to 2700)

Crypto
My take is that it is still very difficult to find a justification that there is a reversal into an uptrend in place. It is in my view more probable that crypto has finished the first leg of a large correction, meaning we will see a leg up (but limited) before it get down again.
We need to closely monitor.

All Major Indexes
I expect one more push up (max.12-20% from current prices - take it very approximately and just for reference where to pay attention to the developments), before major correction down of min 40%.

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