Friday, July 21, 2006

21 July Daily Update

EUR
...[A possible break below 1.247 low to 1.2394/38 (current price 1.2489)...first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893]...
Current daily high at 1.2678 but looking at the momentum it looks like it could make to the above levels 1.2707<>1.2715

JPY
...[possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down]... (current price 117.65)
Made a high 117.87 to reverse down, current low at 115.91, most probable bottom at 115.68/62. Below that 115.10<>114.89...

AUD
...[to bounce from 0.7434]... (current price 0.7445)
bounce was from 0.7405 not a clear targets here, probably not higher than 0.757<>0.759

GBP
...[probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35)]... (current price 1.8270)
Now right on 1.855 target (current high 1.8555). If higher, then possibly up to 1.8623


In general, you are now hunting an Minor* to Intermediate* top (On xxxUDS) and bottom (on USDxxx) pairs, meaning that if you position right, you can expect very very nice ride down (and it could serve even for the Primary* move down).
If I'm right, only the next move, and only on GBPUSD would be more than 1,200 pips. So no need to overexpose your self with huge leverage. (targets down after competition of the current action)
Looking at EUR it seems that this correction up could only be the first leg of a correction so we can expect one more down and one more up by the 24-31 of august (possibly as I mentioned above, to retest 1.286 to 1.2893)
However, it is my opinion that hunting this top/bottom would be very very rewarding. If played properly of course. If not, chances are (since it is a wave B) you get clean swiped.

I'd appreciate to hear your thoughts on the current market situation.

Take care,
idejan


*explanation for those that are not familiar with Elliott Wave terms
Minor translates to - Monthly, Weekly, Daily to 240 min moves
Intermediate - Monthly, Weekly, Daily
Primary - Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly

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