Long CAD? Everyone else is doing it.

"When Alexander saw the breadth of his domain, he wept for therewere no more worlds to conquer."

Just the sight of this chart makes me want to go long, I guess it makes everyone else want to also. Earlier had commented to Idejan that on the long/short indicator on the blog showed 100% short on the swissy.

He informed me that some of the other brokers were showing near 100% long on the Cad. And indeed checked the open long/short ratios at OANDA, sure enough it’s way up there, so my dreams of slaying the market were dashed.

Still took out a small position long……

Just a bear brained thought,....... when everyone is going in the same direction, it’s time for a reverse….. for there’s no one left to take the other side.

Elliott Wave Principle

The Mighty Wave Code :)
This is for all true believers to strengthen their faith, and for all those non believers to convert em into Wave Principle followers and believers :D

This goes even beyond my faith and fascinations.
Simply put, Amazing.

Remember. We are talking here about a small private party, with very few participants, and yet you can clearly see a text book WAVE PRINCIPLE in ACTION.

What can I say. I might be missing something or am I overdosed with EW and I'm seeing things? :)

Not shown here, but interesting to mention is the fact that in the fifth wave on the chart, while number of Readers made to that new High (5), number of page views diverged and made lower high. Typical for 5th waves (more participants, less participation - volume; and divergence in oscillators).

As seen on the chart first drop made to exactly 61.8 fib, then retraced typically for ZZ corrections 50% (55% exactly) of the first drop from the High, and the next drop was exactly 100% extension of first drop A from the B or as on the chart C=A.

This goes as wallpaper on my desktop to remind me of how true Wave Principle is.

Joseph, you could send link to your friends at EWI :)

ID

A view to a funeral or a funeral for a view

He was a cowboy, mister, and he loved the land. He loved it so much he made a woman out of dirt and married her. But when he kissed her, she disintegrated. Later, at the funeral, when the preacher said, 'Dust to dust,' some people laughed, and the cowboy shot them. At his hanging, he told the others, 'I'll be waiting for you in heaven---with a gun.'"



As I was looking at my view of the Euro I was reminded of a funeral, so I searched for a good quote that would symbolize my disdain. Searching thru the many quotes under the heading of funerals I came across this one. Seeing as we have had many illustrations of the old west I thought this would work, made me laugh anyway....

The Bear is lost in the forex, atm....

Price has broken the fork and the parallel, and now looks like its poised to drop farther south, the charts should tell the story.

A series of relabeled charts

Now am beginning to think that we may be in the 5th wave down, and if that's true will be hard pressed to find a good entry south, (we needed to jump on this wave back up in the 2300 area) so scalping hats may be on for this final descent.




One of the problems I have had is labeling some of the minor 5th waves

Here intermediate 1 & 2 seem obvious, but trying to count 5 on the 3rd I come to this conclusion.




To end the count for the 3rd wave back in June, its hard for me to count 5 waves, so I allow for the 4th (retrace) and then end the 3rd wave in December ( red boxed area ).

If any of you were following back on the Moneytec thread I was looking at this as the end of intermediate 5. But here again, was hard pressed to put the final 5 of 5 tag on anything.

And again finishing the 5th of 5 of the 3rd I'm forced to label here. Which leaves us the 4th wave as shown.


I was really expecting the low of the 2/16 (1.1848) candle to hold and to start the "C" wave north of what I thought was a larger correction which would have been defined by the yellow fork. However with the low being taken out this leaves the door open for more south in my books.

One problem I have with this view is the simularity between intermediate waves 2 and 4.

I do show a time for reversal coming up mid to late week but I think we will be slowly dropping for the next few days, however Im now beginning to think that any euro strength will be limited and confined in the black fork, which will be the opportunity to short.


Here's my hourly Im looking at looking to finish this 5th with the completion of the 4th wave triangle.




Still trying to put the pieces back together, will post later with a cleaner view. May need to look at this as a larger corrective move.

Have some more thoughts on different pairs, back in a bit

Joseph: Good point on NIKKEI, tnx

Joseph,
Excellent point on the triangle.
I had problem labeling prior move up as wave I up, but your point with triangle put more shade on that view.
However, I would not label this whole move up as being wave 2 of a larger (c) down, but rather I'd consider it a possible fist leg (a) of a lager ((b)) since to me prior (a)(b)(c) pattern looks like a finished larger wave ((a)) (first chart in NIKKEI225 post).
And as I wrote in my NIKKEI post, even that this is not an IM, the last move up is IM wave and it has one more up to finish what would then be wave c of a larger (a).
Break above the 16,777.40 top would confirm this last IM wave 5 to finish c. Then we should see if the next drop will stay below that new top for same degree correction wave (b).
The fact that it drop to 78.6 fib is also a good indication that the whole drop could be at least considered finished fist leg if not finished correction.

Taking this as wave 2 of a larger (c) down, with wave 3 being only 100% of wave 1, would get NIKKEI down close to ZERO value.

Not impossible but less likely.
Let's see how it unfolds.
ID

PS. I would not be surprised if move from 2003 unfolds being an IM wave up after all :)

Bear brained entries

If I had to pick a level to stage longs on the Yen (this assuming the current high holds) would be from here and I would increase the size of my entries as price dropped

ID: Excuse my manners -- thanks for work on Nikkei!

:) :)

ID: Consider the revised EW count ..... and why!

ID:

Nikkei is not in a bullmarket whatsoever -- the BEAR is alive and well, albeit in hibernation!

After the breakdown from the Primary wave B (B O) triangle in 1997 the entire move thereafter is Primary wave C (C O).

Allow me to explain and I apologize for my brashness & intransigence as a student. :) :)

Nikkei cannot be in a 5-waver for the simple reason that the entire run from March 2003 has to be labeled as an ABC due to the previously missed, yet unmistakeable converging triange at the end of the first stage of the rally from March 2003 -- see my weekly re-counted wave labels.

The triangle is almost perfect and since it cannot occur in a wave 2 position, that first leg of the rally from March 2003 MUST therefore be wave A.

Then, to continue, please observe how beautifully wave B can be drawn.

Then, finally notice how, after price broke-out of the wave B triangle and moved into wave C, the character inherent in wave C caused a sheer vertical climb, the awesome power relinquished also happened to coincide with the previous 2004 top being taken out.

All in all, I've had to revise my entire count by calling the entire runup from March 2003 an Intermediate Wave (2). Wave (3) down comes next and I therefore state that the BEAR market of the Nikkei is going to once again shock all Media as it is set to continue.

My gut instinct had always been that the so-called bullrun the Media was claiming from the 2003 bottom was corrective in nature, but I just could not prove it. Maybe my eyesight has changed or perhaps the Ego was napping and a vital message came thru', hehehehe ....

Oh, also note how nicely the 78.6% level of the entire 1900-1989 run halted Nikkei's drop, but it was whacked pretty good.

Eliminating risk

Joseph & Idejan,

If I can chime in with a couple of thoughts:

Please understand that the Bear is still very much an amateur trader with a long way to go, but the following is the mindset that has been molded by a couple of a very generous gentlemen guru traders to which I am forever thankful.

In a nut shell when we trade, the best case scenario we can hope for is informed speculation.

Now what makes this different from gambling (where the odds are fixed), we can choose the place, time, method and amount of our wager, if this term applies.

We apply our craft to the charts and choose a game plan that we see offers us the best opportunity for profit. The two sides of the equation we need to measure are potential profit and assumed risk.

All that being said, gets me to the issue of my thoughts. Eliminating assumed risk and the free ride.

Please keep in mind that this is the way I think, everyone’s own trading style is unique to them and fits to their own personality, that’s why it so hard to make trade calls, imo. It’s tough to make a call for a multitude of different traders with different risk and reward tolerances.
You asked me the other day why I felt that it was not the time to go long:






To me the prior potential reversal point provides the support (assuming the view is correct), the farther away I enter from that reversal point the more assumed risk I am accepting, ( because I feel that price can always retest this area and the view remain correct).






When I enter a trade I want to enter:

1) Primarily at what I determine to be the reversal point in advance, the first turn and/or

2) The retest of this point.

At this point my risk is the lowest possible and the time it takes for me to be out of risk is the lowest also. ??????????

Eliminating assumed risk.

From this reversal point as price moves away I will quickly cash in a portion of my position and snug my stops to just below the low, preferably to a breakeven + profit position. At this point I have pocketed some pips and the remainder of my position is a free ride to continue to the next turn and we start the process all over again, if my view is incorrect and I get stopped out I still make money. Which is what this game is all about, making money - not necessarily being right.

If I cannot enter at or very near the turn I will not take the trade, I want price to come to me and not the other way around.

From your chart the other day on the long term Yen price had moved north to the resistance/downward sloping trend lines. This would be a point to trade south imo. North positions would be establish after either price had reversed off these lines or price has broken thru and retested the line. To enter now would leave yourself very vulnerable both price and time wise, to the extent that you trade could become profitable with protected stops.

In a nut shell we want to enter at a point that offers us the least amount of risk and time to get ourselves in a profitable position.

Sorry to ramble, hope this makes some sense.

Bear

Accepting WINNERS, accepting LOSERS

I absolutely agree with you Joseph and I'd like to add my comment to this.

If accepting your winners will make you a Winner, accepting your losers will then make you a LOSER.
DON'T accept your losers, unless you like feeling and being a LOSER.

The better way of dealing with your Market calls, is to LEARN to KNOW, when you are RIGHT and knowing when you are WRONG. That way at certain points you will always be Right, and instead of becoming a LOSER you will become WISEer.
I know that we are talking about subtle psychological nuances, but very important ones.
Why? Because there could always be an equal and even better opportunity on the other side of the call. If you look that way on the market, you will always be aware of the opportunities on the both sides. So at points when you argue with Market and it tells you "you should have listen, you are on the wrong side", you can always get on the right side and turn in Profit.
If you have accepted your Loss, you would've most probably needed some time before entering again, and that amount of time you need away from Market after every Loss could grow to the point when you Quit, simply because you either lost your confidence or your money.
Determine price levels that will tell - confirm you being right or wrong should be important part of your strategy from your Money Management decisions point of view too.
Managing your Risk will give you better chances of surviving, but we can't talk about Money Management if we didn't set a Realistic Goals first. Set your Goals first, then decide if you have better chances and opportunities here or you should try a Casino.
ID

My system, rules, timeframe focus and learning modus operandi

Underlying theme: "I don't know nothin!"

Rules: Don't lose money! (I disregard all the zillion rules I read @ MoneyTec and ignore ALL the bestselling authors I've read on this subject -- a boxer who gets pounded in training, arrives for the main event already emaciated internally! Live with the loss, yes, but happily lose while you're learning? .... categorically, NO, NO & NO!

System: Enter/exit when the Head says NO, but the Heart says Yes and the Soul demands it! ...... (all trading books/methodologies, including Elliottwave theory etc. only describe the outward manifestations of the "destroyer" that sits betwixt the Head and the Heart. For, without his presence, all messages from the soul and Heart would arrive at the Head uncorrupted and correctly and would therefore be perfectly executed resulting in there being NO game, for in essence the Soul in everybody is perfect -- & competition is only a means for the weak to distract the strong! All rules about discipline, theories and what-not really deal only with how to put a band-aid on this antediluvian problem plaguing us all" -- there's got to be a better way! Who/what is the "destroyer"? .... aka Ego, the Reactive Mind or whatever you want to call it. His modus operandi? ... for him to live, you must die -- put another way, "to destroy life, to create death!" That's why its never your broker, your analyst etc. that's causing your failure -- the culprit is within and in hiding and is clever, clever, clever!

Timeframe: Monthly/weekly/daily but for 2006 warmups, 4-hr chart + daily. Ignore 1-hr, 30-min and 15-min. timeframes.

Currency Trading experience: 2.5 months; finished 3-month demo trading on December 5th, last year.

How to accelerate/speed up the learning/practise curve with real cash? .. do my homework, make my decision/call and then post it on a bulletin board -- if wrong, I'll never forget the humiliation suffered, worse feeling than the loss of cash, and therefore will research my errors diligently and as a professional.

Year 2006 goal: On December 31st, I'll review my performance; if the return is not commensurate with the effort involved, I'll bow out gracefully and continue to do what I do best -- absolutely zip and enjoying it too!

:) :) :)