Sunday, February 26, 2006

Joseph: Good point on NIKKEI, tnx

Joseph,
Excellent point on the triangle.
I had problem labeling prior move up as wave I up, but your point with triangle put more shade on that view.
However, I would not label this whole move up as being wave 2 of a larger (c) down, but rather I'd consider it a possible fist leg (a) of a lager ((b)) since to me prior (a)(b)(c) pattern looks like a finished larger wave ((a)) (first chart in NIKKEI225 post).
And as I wrote in my NIKKEI post, even that this is not an IM, the last move up is IM wave and it has one more up to finish what would then be wave c of a larger (a).
Break above the 16,777.40 top would confirm this last IM wave 5 to finish c. Then we should see if the next drop will stay below that new top for same degree correction wave (b).
The fact that it drop to 78.6 fib is also a good indication that the whole drop could be at least considered finished fist leg if not finished correction.

Taking this as wave 2 of a larger (c) down, with wave 3 being only 100% of wave 1, would get NIKKEI down close to ZERO value.

Not impossible but less likely.
Let's see how it unfolds.
ID

PS. I would not be surprised if move from 2003 unfolds being an IM wave up after all :)

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