Eur Weekly View

One of the things I like to look for is what I call cut thru trend lines, basic support/resistance lines that have been tested but with more of a diagonal path than traditional horizontal approach.

These imo offer good trade setups when price intersects them, specially when other TA tools are in conjunction.



Until this view breaks down, this is the game plan for the next several months.

bear

Eur Update

An update to the previous post,

Was having technical difficulties this morning trying to post, the Blog is all new to the bear and with big claws n’ paws it’s hard to operate a keyboard.

A special thanks to Stojce for helping me out.

Here’s the pic I was trying to post with current prices and the sliding parallel that was referenced.

So far price has held, If this view is valid the line should hold, the timing marks are still within a few days, so we could possibly hover around this area till early next week before any noticeable upward movement.

Any real breach of this area, and I have to go back to the drawing board.

Weekly view coming up,
Bear

Market Update

I know. SMART and SMALL TRADER put together could be considered an Oxymoron.
No I don't have another Animal Planet Blog and mistakenly posted here.
I can't help that at few occasions while thinking on Market and Trading, picture of a Rhino and that little bird on his back came in front of my eyes.
Thousands of tiny little creatures are attacking the Rhino, but this little bird does not. It recognizes the size and the strength of the rhino, and it's own insignificance. So this smart small little bird feeds on and of his back. Rhino attracts thousands of tiny little creatures, lured with the idea that they've found their dinner, and they become a dinner.

USDX
as on previous chart, could finish little above the current high 91 around 92<>92.5, but could be probably finished. As noted in the two scenarios in prev post, and as bear posted, this kind of a situation is for those preferring low risk to reward trades, or top/bottom pickers.
It is a possible first down of a larger down, or a 2nd down of larger Up.
But you should always mind where exactly do you think the target is, so you could calculate the R/R.

CRUDE
Overshot my target zone 60.3<>59.15 made a low 57.35 which is almost right on the upper line of the target zone (57.10 to 43.9) for this correction from the August top.
It has a excellent finished 1-2-3 structure and could be in a wave 4 (target 59 to 60 to no higher than 62.5 - before a final drop in wave 5.
Or it could be a finished ZZ first wave W of a larger DZ, in which case this second wave X could correct to 62<>67 before a drop to 50 targets (detail in other posts), which is my preferred scenario.

EUR, GBP
I believe we have a minor top in place and that the generally we are in a continuation down to 1.15/14 in EUR and 1.69/68 in GBP (probably even lower)
Intraday, we could see this drop finishing little lower, just below 1.18<>1.17 in EUR, after it corrects to 1.1940/46. GBP could stay above recent low in GBP and correct to around 1.74<>1.76 (7433 and 7545) before it continues down to mentioned prices.

CAD
Not very clear, but up to 1.167 and possibly up to 1.2
Longer term down to below 1.00

JPY
I expect to stay below 119.37
Possible intraday up, but below 119.37 top
Below 117.2 down to min 115.3 but most probably down to 113<>107 (111.6 to 110.7)

NZD
Sorry Joseph, I haven't forgot abut longer term view of NZD, but now only the very short term.
possible small correction to .671<>.675 then down to .664<>.66
I'll do better when I get the Longer term Picture first.

A Smart Small Trader, a rare Bird.

Why do some birds hang out on the backs of rhinos?
The birds – called Oxpeckers – are there for the food. Oxpeckers pick blood-sucking ticks and other parasites off the rhinos.
The relationship between the oxpecker and the rhinoceros is an example of "mutualism", a relationship in which both organisms benefit. In other words, it's a win/win situation – the rhinos get rid of unwanted pests and the birds get a tasty meal.

EurUsd on 4-hr ... he ain't 57.6% of DX for no reason!

EurUsd also @ 161.8% of my voodoo Fib grid.

A 4-hr close above 1.1931 will be hammered fervently.

caveat: the FE 161.8% @ 1.1772 is acting like a magnet.

I'm in lightly.

DX on 4-hr

Short comment on this Blog technicals...

For now resident here are Joseph, Bear and my self, all responsible for the rumbling, and Stojce who is helping with his programing.
If you have any ideas, questions, requests, concerning the Blog technicals, MT4 programing and other possible web issues please contact Stojce.
He is the one that set up this blog, providing nice environment and working on few interesting improvements for the near future. For free of course.
So mind that when asking, he is willing to help but he has his own daily responsibilities too :)
I appreciate his help greatly, and his the one I was working with in developing some indicators for MT4.
ID

Start of C?

A short term change in direction maybe at hand, very low risk to reward.

This view is at the failure point. Price is at the bottom sliding parallel of the fork and has for the moment found support. Looking to long back into 11850 on a retest of current lows.

With some very basic fibonacci timing marks from various points of the pitchfork points we are close to a time for change.

Just an amateur bearish thought.

bear

(this is the first time to try and post a chart, so we will see if this works)

Market Direction - Forex

Bear's Thoughts

Who knows the enigma that lurks in the minds of Bears…. Only the Shadow. ( evil laugh in the background )

To answer Charlie's question.

The bear is a reversal trader, the proverbial top and bottom picker. Strictly a technical trader, I don’t get caught up in the news, figure the people in the know, already know, and they ain’t telling except it’s shown in the charts.

I use a combination of:
Not necessarily in this order,
(a) Elliott wave on all time frames, starting with the weekly, daily and working down
(b) Andrews Pitchforks
(c ) Fibonacci levels in conjunction with chart patterns
(d) A plethora of Gann, Jenkins and Gilmore techniques.

I prefer to trade complete waves trying to get it to where I’m trading on 3 different time frames. What would be positional trades, lasting for weeks “preferably carry“, swing trades 2 to several days and then intra-day. Some of these will be in opposition to each other.

I use Elliott waves as the backdrop for direction, wave counting. I’ll employ an arsenal of geometric studies at the prior waves, in hopes of them releasing their secrets as to the time and place of the next waves inception.

In Theory……

Sometimes its easier said than done. But I prefer to reversal trade as it gives me the best risk to reward ratios for entries, I’ll be either right or wrong quickly, trying to cover my trade expenses in an effort to get my trade in a “free ride” status and then try to hang on till the next one!

Please be aware that the Bear is very much a student of the markets. And am in the process of molding my trade techniques to employ the longer, positional trades.

A work in progress…….

But I will warn everyone, my charts sometimes look like a New Jersey road map.
Sorry Joseph.

Bear

Charlies suggestion set in motion ....

Here's what he said,

"One thing that I would appreciate is an overview of the approach that each contributer takes. Your analysis is based on EW, but Trader One & Bear Profits take a slightly different tack. The different approaches will be the strength of the site, but a few words explaining them would be very helpful for the reader".

OK then, here's mine:

Simplicity is the key:

Technical:

(1) Fibonacci levels (S&R + targeting)
(2) Dow Theory -- simple mechanics of TREND.
(3) Trendlines, especially angles of attack.
(4) Commonsense.
(5) One or 2 indicators that are used in unconventional ways
(6) EW only on "monthly/weekly" timeframe -- intraday use can be puerile, futile and fatal & sometimes downright assinine, hovine and bovine!

Fundamental:

In the antediluvian quest for higher YIELDs, where is the herd likely to stampede to & ..... when .... and how passionately (sentiment)?

This is the only factor that matters in the vast sea of torrents of nonsense.

Yeah, I read all kinds of articles, but for me, "Opinions are like ass*oles; everyone has one!"

The cleanliness, unclutteredness and ample white-spaceness of one's chart is directly proportional to serendipitous, untrammeled profits, hehehehe.

More on "follow the money trail" to determine which currency to be in for the long haul -- in future posts.

I'm relieved to be in a place where the long haul is what it is and not just 2 days, as it appears to be -- at MoneyTec. :) :)