Thursday, February 16, 2006

Market Update

I know. SMART and SMALL TRADER put together could be considered an Oxymoron.
No I don't have another Animal Planet Blog and mistakenly posted here.
I can't help that at few occasions while thinking on Market and Trading, picture of a Rhino and that little bird on his back came in front of my eyes.
Thousands of tiny little creatures are attacking the Rhino, but this little bird does not. It recognizes the size and the strength of the rhino, and it's own insignificance. So this smart small little bird feeds on and of his back. Rhino attracts thousands of tiny little creatures, lured with the idea that they've found their dinner, and they become a dinner.

USDX
as on previous chart, could finish little above the current high 91 around 92<>92.5, but could be probably finished. As noted in the two scenarios in prev post, and as bear posted, this kind of a situation is for those preferring low risk to reward trades, or top/bottom pickers.
It is a possible first down of a larger down, or a 2nd down of larger Up.
But you should always mind where exactly do you think the target is, so you could calculate the R/R.

CRUDE
Overshot my target zone 60.3<>59.15 made a low 57.35 which is almost right on the upper line of the target zone (57.10 to 43.9) for this correction from the August top.
It has a excellent finished 1-2-3 structure and could be in a wave 4 (target 59 to 60 to no higher than 62.5 - before a final drop in wave 5.
Or it could be a finished ZZ first wave W of a larger DZ, in which case this second wave X could correct to 62<>67 before a drop to 50 targets (detail in other posts), which is my preferred scenario.

EUR, GBP
I believe we have a minor top in place and that the generally we are in a continuation down to 1.15/14 in EUR and 1.69/68 in GBP (probably even lower)
Intraday, we could see this drop finishing little lower, just below 1.18<>1.17 in EUR, after it corrects to 1.1940/46. GBP could stay above recent low in GBP and correct to around 1.74<>1.76 (7433 and 7545) before it continues down to mentioned prices.

CAD
Not very clear, but up to 1.167 and possibly up to 1.2
Longer term down to below 1.00

JPY
I expect to stay below 119.37
Possible intraday up, but below 119.37 top
Below 117.2 down to min 115.3 but most probably down to 113<>107 (111.6 to 110.7)

NZD
Sorry Joseph, I haven't forgot abut longer term view of NZD, but now only the very short term.
possible small correction to .671<>.675 then down to .664<>.66
I'll do better when I get the Longer term Picture first.

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