EURUSD
Bounced just above 1.2485
If this low (1.2495) holds, then first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893
I don't expect it to be a nice IM sharp move up, but rather it will be slow sideways to up move.
USDJPY
(last update 6 July)
nice takeoff from that last update and right from the expected levels for a ~370 pips move.
Now a break below 116.65 would be a good indication for a retrace to a 115.63/32 and a break below that would be a good for 114.10<>113.70
But... Looking at the pattern of this recent rely, I suspect of a possible one more move up to finish it. Possibly not higher than 117.6, I was expecting 117.30/35. If higher than 117.6 then possibly 118.4
ID
(other pairs to follow in a while.
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Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Monday, July 17, 2006
17 July update
EURUSD
Way below the expected target area, and although it could still be a valid count, the alternative gray count seems to be unfolding, which as I mentioned in fxs thread on MTec, would mean continued sideways trading in wave B, before we can expect a drop down to 1.22 and below...
Since this drop went this deep, it provides a wider range for the next move up below the 1.298 top.
Intermediate bias is still bearish, but I expect this drop to end soon, probably not below 1.2485, to bounce up to 1.2750 and probably not higher then 1.2897, but we should wait the market to develop some indications before we can project possible targets up.
ID
Way below the expected target area, and although it could still be a valid count, the alternative gray count seems to be unfolding, which as I mentioned in fxs thread on MTec, would mean continued sideways trading in wave B, before we can expect a drop down to 1.22 and below...
Since this drop went this deep, it provides a wider range for the next move up below the 1.298 top.
Intermediate bias is still bearish, but I expect this drop to end soon, probably not below 1.2485, to bounce up to 1.2750 and probably not higher then 1.2897, but we should wait the market to develop some indications before we can project possible targets up.
ID
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
NZDUSD update
NZDUSD
last post on this pair was accurate call for a bottom, and turned to be a good buy call (~0.5960/50) for ~200 pips at current market price (0.6167).
Now watch 0.6198<>0.6233 for a possible retrace, but I would expect it to possibly go up to 0.6269<>0.6336
Still no clear answers to those questions. we need to let the market develop more clues, before we can have the answers.
I'm still not really convinced we have a bottom...
I'll try preparing more detailed analysis during the weekend.
I also consider continuing my video analysis series.
ID
last post on this pair was accurate call for a bottom, and turned to be a good buy call (~0.5960/50) for ~200 pips at current market price (0.6167).
Now watch 0.6198<>0.6233 for a possible retrace, but I would expect it to possibly go up to 0.6269<>0.6336
Still no clear answers to those questions. we need to let the market develop more clues, before we can have the answers.
I'm still not really convinced we have a bottom...
I'll try preparing more detailed analysis during the weekend.
I also consider continuing my video analysis series.
ID
AUDUSD daily update
AUDUSD topping, but it could go up to 0.7573<>0.7592
Depending on your strategy you could short from here and add if it goes higher with stop above 0.7592 or hunt the top from here with tight stops.
If this plays true, min target 0.7208
next targets 0.7060/10 to 0.6860 (most probable min target to finish larger correction). Below that 0.66
Nice confluence with Gold, which was contained in my target area for a while but broke above it today. That made me reconsider a possible break little higher on AUD too. Nevertheless it is either a top or very close to a top, which represents a nice R/R opportunity.
This is a great Risk to Reward opportunity.
Take care
idejan
Depending on your strategy you could short from here and add if it goes higher with stop above 0.7592 or hunt the top from here with tight stops.
If this plays true, min target 0.7208
next targets 0.7060/10 to 0.6860 (most probable min target to finish larger correction). Below that 0.66
Nice confluence with Gold, which was contained in my target area for a while but broke above it today. That made me reconsider a possible break little higher on AUD too. Nevertheless it is either a top or very close to a top, which represents a nice R/R opportunity.
This is a great Risk to Reward opportunity.
Take care
idejan
Monday, July 10, 2006
EURUSD update
On the chart is the update of the previously published chart.It shows a possible Running Flat (wave [b]), and if the recent fall wave (c) continues lower of (a) it will be an Extended Flat. Of course break below 1.2478 will confirm C down... On the other side, break above 1.2980 will invalidate this scenario.
Best to all
ID
Thursday, July 06, 2006
Gold and Crude
Nice confluence to USD view gives a look at GOLD chart and the CrudeOil chart.
Gold is about to finish a wave B up around 632.80<>636.45 to continue down to somewhere around 500.00<>437.50 probably 449.20
I expect same with Crude Oil, which could top somewhere around 76.56<>78.13 and correct down to around 50.00
This could be considered US Dollar positive.
idejan
Gold is about to finish a wave B up around 632.80<>636.45 to continue down to somewhere around 500.00<>437.50 probably 449.20
I expect same with Crude Oil, which could top somewhere around 76.56<>78.13 and correct down to around 50.00
This could be considered US Dollar positive.
idejan
AUD
AUD
if it breaks (very possible) above 0.7460 and 0.7472 it will most probably target 0.7477/7507 to continue down... just broke above 0.7460
let see...
ID
if it breaks (very possible) above 0.7460 and 0.7472 it will most probably target 0.7477/7507 to continue down... just broke above 0.7460
let see...
ID
USDJPY takeoff level
Look for a possible USDJPY takeoff somewhere from around 113.80/50/00
It will need to break below 109 to negate my view, but breaking below 113 would get my attention.
Immediate break above 116 confirms next upper targets.
ID
It will need to break below 109 to negate my view, but breaking below 113 would get my attention.
Immediate break above 116 confirms next upper targets.
ID
Update July 6th, 2006
Short update on EURUSD
It is a closer look on what was presented on that picture few days ago.
As I said before, we see a possible ended B, but on the other detail I'm presenting a possible scenario where B is still on...
On the next chart we see that scenario, which I believe is very possible, some more stop hunting before the big dive down in the next C down to finish (A) in the target area shown on the above picture.
However, a significant break below that target area for wave [b] could seriously argue about wave B being fiished, and the break below the bottom of wave A will confirm we are in a wave C down.
Take care,
idejan
Tuesday, July 04, 2006
Short Update
AUD did not made it to lower levels but instead made a retracement right from the levels at the time of the previous post, and right into the posted target area of 0.7400/50 (actual high 0.7458) (see sumary below)
EURUSD
..."If so, then we can expect wave [b] to target 1.2640 to 1.2780 but probably 1.2664<>1.2717 to continue down in a wave [c] to finish first Minor wave A down, probably to 1.22/21 possibly lower to 1.1960/20."...
Finished little above the target area, and now it could be a finished wave [b] as suggested, or it could be just the first wave (a) of that [b], which would mean more sideways to up movement (or more precisely, wave (b) down then wave (c) up to finish [b]).
(see sumary below)
USDJPY
no point updating since I notice that I missed publishing intraday targets for the correction I was forecasting (...I believe that we are about to see a retracement in a wave [b] Minute of the first Minor wave A...)
(see sumary below)
NZDUSD and USDCAD last post still valid nothing to add and I'm sorry I don't have time posting shorter term on this pairs.
Summary
So in general, it is quite possible that recent correction in USD pairs (USD depreciation) could not be finished and could test the previous levels (highs/lows respectively in different pairs), but it would be just what my friend Joseph used to say "a sucker B" which would not travel beyond last tops/bottoms.
See previous picture of EURUSD we are in that unlabeled small red retracement wave [b] up before the next [c] drop down to finish wave (A) (blue).
Hunt this top from the current levels with tight stops, or from little above, than either ride all the way down, or take some profit at the end of wave (A) leave the rest for the ride down, and then add again at the end of wave (B) (again hunt it with tight sl)
There are many considering a 5th wave up, but sorry I can't agree with it. If somebody shows me how can we label that wave 1 (substructure) I would retreat me stand. But I can't even agree with the sub structure of wave 3 being acceptable for labeling it wave 3. I'm talking about the whole move up from Nov low to May high, somebody considering it a possible IM wave up and expecting a continuation in a wave 5.
Best to all,
ID
EURUSD
..."If so, then we can expect wave [b] to target 1.2640 to 1.2780 but probably 1.2664<>1.2717 to continue down in a wave [c] to finish first Minor wave A down, probably to 1.22/21 possibly lower to 1.1960/20."...
Finished little above the target area, and now it could be a finished wave [b] as suggested, or it could be just the first wave (a) of that [b], which would mean more sideways to up movement (or more precisely, wave (b) down then wave (c) up to finish [b]).
(see sumary below)
USDJPY
no point updating since I notice that I missed publishing intraday targets for the correction I was forecasting (...I believe that we are about to see a retracement in a wave [b] Minute of the first Minor wave A...)
(see sumary below)
NZDUSD and USDCAD last post still valid nothing to add and I'm sorry I don't have time posting shorter term on this pairs.
Summary
So in general, it is quite possible that recent correction in USD pairs (USD depreciation) could not be finished and could test the previous levels (highs/lows respectively in different pairs), but it would be just what my friend Joseph used to say "a sucker B" which would not travel beyond last tops/bottoms.
See previous picture of EURUSD we are in that unlabeled small red retracement wave [b] up before the next [c] drop down to finish wave (A) (blue).
Hunt this top from the current levels with tight stops, or from little above, than either ride all the way down, or take some profit at the end of wave (A) leave the rest for the ride down, and then add again at the end of wave (B) (again hunt it with tight sl)
There are many considering a 5th wave up, but sorry I can't agree with it. If somebody shows me how can we label that wave 1 (substructure) I would retreat me stand. But I can't even agree with the sub structure of wave 3 being acceptable for labeling it wave 3. I'm talking about the whole move up from Nov low to May high, somebody considering it a possible IM wave up and expecting a continuation in a wave 5.
Best to all,
ID
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