Something very interesting to see.
Steorn
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
Thursday, August 17, 2006
EWT Ramblings with Bear
Hi Bear,
I've read your conversation with modi on FXS thread the other day and I won't say if he is right or wrong, or how good is his approach, but instead, with the things he says, question arises if he speaks about EWT or rather to some new approach?! That is simply because from that little I've read and from seeing his counts, it seems that he (they) changed some of the fundamental principles of EWT and developed new breed. :) This is of course just an impression and not an argumented statement though, so I could very easily be wrong. I'm open minded to other approaches and uses of EW and I've said many times it is not the tool but the hand that uses the tool that will produce the results. So the comment is just of a theoretical and not of practical nature.
You also know that I agree with the idea that Forex pairs long terms cycles "could be seen" as representing continuous sideways movements. Unfortunately there isn't sufficient record backward (wave II can take up to 9 times the time needed to complete wave one), neither we will live so long to scientifically argument this :)
Although I grow the same impression that it is less likely to see some single currency hitting 0 (zero), no matter how improbable it is not impossible.
Anyway, Your conversation at FXS thread got me into rethinking the whole idea more deeply.
I have thoughts about that but never got to the point really contemplating them into an argument :)
Considering your question posted at fxs place about EWT and Forex sessions (US, EU and Asian)
Think of it this way.
As you know EWaves have fractal nature. Should I continue? :)
Of course not, but since I decided making it public post I will. So this part of the message is for those not that familiar...
Let's see then. Even on the same floor, every single trader's "mood" produces behavior which is reflected on the small time frames. Then you can see the cumulative behavioral results on daily and weekly charts.
I believe everyone get it even by now so no need to elaborate but OK, just in case something interesting comes out of this ramblings.
The only difference is in the accumulation time of single nano-fractals. While other markets have working hours, FOREX is 24 hours. It is not a question of place (and with electronic trading this is insignificant in other markets too) but of time (frames).
Time (frames) represents the accumulated behavior seen in patterns. That's why I said few times at fxs place (and you and I agree on this) that EWs are more accurate on larger time frames.
Now more significant difference in Forex is the fact that you trade pairs.
When a pair moves up or down, that could be because of few reasons:
1. People in general are bullish/bearish to a single currency (the above example)
or (nowadays)
2. People are bullish/bearish to a FX pair
Now the first way is the way one should observe FOREX. The pairs (one pair) them selfs are instruments or products which banks are selling to make money, and are not a true reflection of a real "mood" toward some single currency, instead they are a representation (summation) of the moods toward two currencies relative to each other. That is why we can't see the "true behavior" for the single currencies just from the pattern of one FX pair. But then, it doesn't necessarily matters (to many) since we are interested and we trade pairs. One could analyze FX from a single currency strength perspective (USDX, by assembling own indexes or like me building a RSI basket indicator :)...) but not necessarily. :)
Nowadays however, there are probably more and more participants which are seeing FOREX pairs in a more simple way (like stocks or commodities i.e.) and don't bother or even comprehend beyond that.
To make it really a ramble I'll just finish with this conclusion:
At the end, nothing of this really matters.
The only really important thing in any venture is neither your abilities neither the tools you have. But the level of confidence you have in both your skills and your tools. First two are prerequisites, but without the confidence you are not getting anywhere. You will either not do anything or produce poor results because of the lack or low confidence...
Build your confidence. Throw in some Money Management, it will help you. :)
Bear, tnx for your mail, hope everything's fine home, and a warm hi to bear family.
Dejan
PS. Bear, too bad fxs thread is not quite an appropriate place for this kind of ramblings, so too bad all those visiting there won't see it (or perhaps not :), they are saved from bore theoretical punishment :D )
Any way I'm making it public in the Blog.
I've read your conversation with modi on FXS thread the other day and I won't say if he is right or wrong, or how good is his approach, but instead, with the things he says, question arises if he speaks about EWT or rather to some new approach?! That is simply because from that little I've read and from seeing his counts, it seems that he (they) changed some of the fundamental principles of EWT and developed new breed. :) This is of course just an impression and not an argumented statement though, so I could very easily be wrong. I'm open minded to other approaches and uses of EW and I've said many times it is not the tool but the hand that uses the tool that will produce the results. So the comment is just of a theoretical and not of practical nature.
You also know that I agree with the idea that Forex pairs long terms cycles "could be seen" as representing continuous sideways movements. Unfortunately there isn't sufficient record backward (wave II can take up to 9 times the time needed to complete wave one), neither we will live so long to scientifically argument this :)
Although I grow the same impression that it is less likely to see some single currency hitting 0 (zero), no matter how improbable it is not impossible.
Anyway, Your conversation at FXS thread got me into rethinking the whole idea more deeply.
I have thoughts about that but never got to the point really contemplating them into an argument :)
Considering your question posted at fxs place about EWT and Forex sessions (US, EU and Asian)
Think of it this way.
As you know EWaves have fractal nature. Should I continue? :)
Of course not, but since I decided making it public post I will. So this part of the message is for those not that familiar...
Let's see then. Even on the same floor, every single trader's "mood" produces behavior which is reflected on the small time frames. Then you can see the cumulative behavioral results on daily and weekly charts.
I believe everyone get it even by now so no need to elaborate but OK, just in case something interesting comes out of this ramblings.
The only difference is in the accumulation time of single nano-fractals. While other markets have working hours, FOREX is 24 hours. It is not a question of place (and with electronic trading this is insignificant in other markets too) but of time (frames).
Time (frames) represents the accumulated behavior seen in patterns. That's why I said few times at fxs place (and you and I agree on this) that EWs are more accurate on larger time frames.
Now more significant difference in Forex is the fact that you trade pairs.
When a pair moves up or down, that could be because of few reasons:
If EURUSD is falling, that could be because:
1.USD is rising; EUR is falling.
2.USD is rising, EUR is holding steady
3.USD is rising, EUR is rising but slower than USD
4.USD is holding steady, EUR is falling
5.USD is falling, EUR is falling but faster than USD
So, there could be two different ways of how "behavior" in Forex can be seen.
1. People in general are bullish/bearish to a single currency (the above example)
or (nowadays)
2. People are bullish/bearish to a FX pair
Now the first way is the way one should observe FOREX. The pairs (one pair) them selfs are instruments or products which banks are selling to make money, and are not a true reflection of a real "mood" toward some single currency, instead they are a representation (summation) of the moods toward two currencies relative to each other. That is why we can't see the "true behavior" for the single currencies just from the pattern of one FX pair. But then, it doesn't necessarily matters (to many) since we are interested and we trade pairs. One could analyze FX from a single currency strength perspective (USDX, by assembling own indexes or like me building a RSI basket indicator :)...) but not necessarily. :)
Nowadays however, there are probably more and more participants which are seeing FOREX pairs in a more simple way (like stocks or commodities i.e.) and don't bother or even comprehend beyond that.
To make it really a ramble I'll just finish with this conclusion:
At the end, nothing of this really matters.
The only really important thing in any venture is neither your abilities neither the tools you have. But the level of confidence you have in both your skills and your tools. First two are prerequisites, but without the confidence you are not getting anywhere. You will either not do anything or produce poor results because of the lack or low confidence...
Build your confidence. Throw in some Money Management, it will help you. :)
Bear, tnx for your mail, hope everything's fine home, and a warm hi to bear family.
Dejan
PS. Bear, too bad fxs thread is not quite an appropriate place for this kind of ramblings, so too bad all those visiting there won't see it (or perhaps not :), they are saved from bore theoretical punishment :D )
Any way I'm making it public in the Blog.
Monday, July 24, 2006
Apology
Hi all,
I made a very stupid and unpleasant spelling error in the previous post (which is corrected now) and I would like to apology to the guy from Poland for the mistake.
It is our Cyrillic habit of writing as we speak, and misfortunate similarity of certain English words that contributed to making the mistake.
So once again I apology to my friend from Poland.
Dejan
I made a very stupid and unpleasant spelling error in the previous post (which is corrected now) and I would like to apology to the guy from Poland for the mistake.
It is our Cyrillic habit of writing as we speak, and misfortunate similarity of certain English words that contributed to making the mistake.
So once again I apology to my friend from Poland.
Dejan
Sunday, July 23, 2006
For my friends
Hi
This post is dedicated to my dear friends.
At the time I decided to move from MTec, my friend Stojce prepared this Blog, but also a Google Group and a Forum, for me to decide what will be the most appropriate medium for my ramblings.
Since I was not getting much of a feedback and participation at MTec, and that is why I decided to move out, creating a Forum didn't sounded like a good idea to me. Groups are also fine if there is a collaboration or if you want to limit access to selected people (members. So Brain Logging sounded most appropriate at that time.
Well, a month or so ago, I started to use that group stojce created before, as a kind of a notebook, a place were I send short comments and Charts from many different pairs and Indexes, usually at the end of the week. It is not much of an analysis, rather just my quick notes, drawn on the charts. I started dong that as a coincidence of two cozy things: one is the option of ProRealTime Charts to mail the chart directly from the application, and the second is the option to publish posts in Google group by mail. Since I use to look at some charts available with ProRealTime (not Forex), I started sending them just as notes, that will be accessible to me at any time from any place, and by the way, they will be automatically organized.
Now, since I'm going on a vacation in a few days, I decided I should make this notes available to my friends and to few of the people that were kind to share their thoughts, questions or just to say hi. I appreciated, and you know, your questions were always very stimulating for me. I'm doing this just to keep you busy while I'm gone :).
Few persons that I don't have a contact with, can also send their mails so I can add them. They are regular and frequent visitors to my blog:
the one from Argentina, one from Singapore and the one from Pleven, Bulgaria.
If the visits I get from Sofia (Bulgaria) are from Eftim, I'd would be glad to add you too. The one with the Forexmasters nickname can send mail too. The guy from Poland, I don't know your name, I presume it is main1 from MTec, confirm by mail if it is you.
This is for those very few fellows Macedonians that are visiting my Blog, ќе ми биде мило ако ме контактирате за да може да си помуабетиме на темава.
That's it from me, I'm off for two weeks, warming my old bones in a warm beach sand.
Take care,
IDejan
PS. For those few I mentioned, I expect your mail by Monday evening (GMT+1) when I'll be sending the link...
PSS. You may find it funny and laughing, but it is really much easier to me to write comments about markets in English then in my Macedonian (practically no trading terminology..) that's why even my private notes are in english... don't ask me how much time it took me to write those few analysis of few stocks from MSE (Macedonian Stock Exchange)
This post is dedicated to my dear friends.
At the time I decided to move from MTec, my friend Stojce prepared this Blog, but also a Google Group and a Forum, for me to decide what will be the most appropriate medium for my ramblings.
Since I was not getting much of a feedback and participation at MTec, and that is why I decided to move out, creating a Forum didn't sounded like a good idea to me. Groups are also fine if there is a collaboration or if you want to limit access to selected people (members. So Brain Logging sounded most appropriate at that time.
Well, a month or so ago, I started to use that group stojce created before, as a kind of a notebook, a place were I send short comments and Charts from many different pairs and Indexes, usually at the end of the week. It is not much of an analysis, rather just my quick notes, drawn on the charts. I started dong that as a coincidence of two cozy things: one is the option of ProRealTime Charts to mail the chart directly from the application, and the second is the option to publish posts in Google group by mail. Since I use to look at some charts available with ProRealTime (not Forex), I started sending them just as notes, that will be accessible to me at any time from any place, and by the way, they will be automatically organized.
Now, since I'm going on a vacation in a few days, I decided I should make this notes available to my friends and to few of the people that were kind to share their thoughts, questions or just to say hi. I appreciated, and you know, your questions were always very stimulating for me. I'm doing this just to keep you busy while I'm gone :).
Few persons that I don't have a contact with, can also send their mails so I can add them. They are regular and frequent visitors to my blog:
the one from Argentina, one from Singapore and the one from Pleven, Bulgaria.
If the visits I get from Sofia (Bulgaria) are from Eftim, I'd would be glad to add you too. The one with the Forexmasters nickname can send mail too. The guy from Poland, I don't know your name, I presume it is main1 from MTec, confirm by mail if it is you.
This is for those very few fellows Macedonians that are visiting my Blog, ќе ми биде мило ако ме контактирате за да може да си помуабетиме на темава.
That's it from me, I'm off for two weeks, warming my old bones in a warm beach sand.
Take care,
IDejan
PS. For those few I mentioned, I expect your mail by Monday evening (GMT+1) when I'll be sending the link...
PSS. You may find it funny and laughing, but it is really much easier to me to write comments about markets in English then in my Macedonian (practically no trading terminology..) that's why even my private notes are in english... don't ask me how much time it took me to write those few analysis of few stocks from MSE (Macedonian Stock Exchange)
Friday, July 21, 2006
NEW video analysis
21 July Daily Update
EUR
...[A possible break below 1.247 low to 1.2394/38 (current price 1.2489)...first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893]...
Current daily high at 1.2678 but looking at the momentum it looks like it could make to the above levels 1.2707<>1.2715
JPY
...[possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down]... (current price 117.65)
Made a high 117.87 to reverse down, current low at 115.91, most probable bottom at 115.68/62. Below that 115.10<>114.89...
AUD
...[to bounce from 0.7434]... (current price 0.7445)
bounce was from 0.7405 not a clear targets here, probably not higher than 0.757<>0.759
GBP
...[probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35)]... (current price 1.8270)
Now right on 1.855 target (current high 1.8555). If higher, then possibly up to 1.8623
In general, you are now hunting an Minor* to Intermediate* top (On xxxUDS) and bottom (on USDxxx) pairs, meaning that if you position right, you can expect very very nice ride down (and it could serve even for the Primary* move down).
If I'm right, only the next move, and only on GBPUSD would be more than 1,200 pips. So no need to overexpose your self with huge leverage. (targets down after competition of the current action)
Looking at EUR it seems that this correction up could only be the first leg of a correction so we can expect one more down and one more up by the 24-31 of august (possibly as I mentioned above, to retest 1.286 to 1.2893)
However, it is my opinion that hunting this top/bottom would be very very rewarding. If played properly of course. If not, chances are (since it is a wave B) you get clean swiped.
I'd appreciate to hear your thoughts on the current market situation.
Take care,
idejan
*explanation for those that are not familiar with Elliott Wave terms
Minor translates to - Monthly, Weekly, Daily to 240 min moves
Intermediate - Monthly, Weekly, Daily
Primary - Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly
...[A possible break below 1.247 low to 1.2394/38 (current price 1.2489)...first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893]...
Current daily high at 1.2678 but looking at the momentum it looks like it could make to the above levels 1.2707<>1.2715
JPY
...[possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down]... (current price 117.65)
Made a high 117.87 to reverse down, current low at 115.91, most probable bottom at 115.68/62. Below that 115.10<>114.89...
AUD
...[to bounce from 0.7434]... (current price 0.7445)
bounce was from 0.7405 not a clear targets here, probably not higher than 0.757<>0.759
GBP
...[probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35)]... (current price 1.8270)
Now right on 1.855 target (current high 1.8555). If higher, then possibly up to 1.8623
In general, you are now hunting an Minor* to Intermediate* top (On xxxUDS) and bottom (on USDxxx) pairs, meaning that if you position right, you can expect very very nice ride down (and it could serve even for the Primary* move down).
If I'm right, only the next move, and only on GBPUSD would be more than 1,200 pips. So no need to overexpose your self with huge leverage. (targets down after competition of the current action)
Looking at EUR it seems that this correction up could only be the first leg of a correction so we can expect one more down and one more up by the 24-31 of august (possibly as I mentioned above, to retest 1.286 to 1.2893)
However, it is my opinion that hunting this top/bottom would be very very rewarding. If played properly of course. If not, chances are (since it is a wave B) you get clean swiped.
I'd appreciate to hear your thoughts on the current market situation.
Take care,
idejan
*explanation for those that are not familiar with Elliott Wave terms
Minor translates to - Monthly, Weekly, Daily to 240 min moves
Intermediate - Monthly, Weekly, Daily
Primary - Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
19 July Update
EUR A possible break below 1.247 low to 1.2394/38 (current price 1.2489)
JPY possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down... (current price 117.65)
AUD to bonce from 0.7434 (current price 0.7445)
GBP probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35 (current price 1.8270)
JPY possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down... (current price 117.65)
AUD to bonce from 0.7434 (current price 0.7445)
GBP probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35 (current price 1.8270)
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
18 July Update, part 2
AUDUSD
It topped an hour after I posted. We still need a confirmation for the previously posted targets 0.7208 and below 0.7060/10 to 0.6860 Second leg is still forming (H4 chart the drop was first leg...) and it's not finished yet (meaning a possible one more move up before a continuation down) Next Minute move down would target a min of 0.7420 but more probably lower 0.7332/24...
NZDUSD
Right in the published target box. It entered into the box, lower band of the box, not sure it's over yet. We still need more clues for the longer term picture to unfold.
*GOLD* and *CrudeOil* I'm very confident it topped and we are about to see a significant decline (to 500 and below). Same for the CrudeOil (probably 50).
ID
PS. I wrote and sent this by mail to my blog around 16.30 and it is still not published. this was the first time I'm trying posting by mail. The first update (previous post) had few minutes delay (around 10min) but the second is now an hour late and still not even arrived.
That's why I've decided to post my update directly here while it could still be relevant since it is intraday comment :)
So mind that it was writen an hour before the time of the stamp here and if by any chance another copy of it appears later that means that my mail finaly arrived :)
I'll check later.
It topped an hour after I posted. We still need a confirmation for the previously posted targets 0.7208 and below 0.7060/10 to 0.6860 Second leg is still forming (H4 chart the drop was first leg...) and it's not finished yet (meaning a possible one more move up before a continuation down) Next Minute move down would target a min of 0.7420 but more probably lower 0.7332/24...
NZDUSD
Right in the published target box. It entered into the box, lower band of the box, not sure it's over yet. We still need more clues for the longer term picture to unfold.
*GOLD* and *CrudeOil* I'm very confident it topped and we are about to see a significant decline (to 500 and below). Same for the CrudeOil (probably 50).
ID
PS. I wrote and sent this by mail to my blog around 16.30 and it is still not published. this was the first time I'm trying posting by mail. The first update (previous post) had few minutes delay (around 10min) but the second is now an hour late and still not even arrived.
That's why I've decided to post my update directly here while it could still be relevant since it is intraday comment :)
So mind that it was writen an hour before the time of the stamp here and if by any chance another copy of it appears later that means that my mail finaly arrived :)
I'll check later.
18 July Update
EURUSD
Bounced just above 1.2485
If this low (1.2495) holds, then first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893
I don't expect it to be a nice IM sharp move up, but rather it will be slow sideways to up move.
USDJPY
(last update 6 July)
nice takeoff from that last update and right from the expected levels for a ~370 pips move.
Now a break below 116.65 would be a good indication for a retrace to a 115.63/32 and a break below that would be a good for 114.10<>113.70
But... Looking at the pattern of this recent rely, I suspect of a possible one more move up to finish it. Possibly not higher than 117.6, I was expecting 117.30/35. If higher than 117.6 then possibly 118.4
ID
(other pairs to follow in a while.
press CTRL+F5 for to refresh your browser.)
Bounced just above 1.2485
If this low (1.2495) holds, then first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893
I don't expect it to be a nice IM sharp move up, but rather it will be slow sideways to up move.
USDJPY
(last update 6 July)
nice takeoff from that last update and right from the expected levels for a ~370 pips move.
Now a break below 116.65 would be a good indication for a retrace to a 115.63/32 and a break below that would be a good for 114.10<>113.70
But... Looking at the pattern of this recent rely, I suspect of a possible one more move up to finish it. Possibly not higher than 117.6, I was expecting 117.30/35. If higher than 117.6 then possibly 118.4
ID
(other pairs to follow in a while.
press CTRL+F5 for to refresh your browser.)
Monday, July 17, 2006
17 July update
EURUSD
Way below the expected target area, and although it could still be a valid count, the alternative gray count seems to be unfolding, which as I mentioned in fxs thread on MTec, would mean continued sideways trading in wave B, before we can expect a drop down to 1.22 and below...
Since this drop went this deep, it provides a wider range for the next move up below the 1.298 top.
Intermediate bias is still bearish, but I expect this drop to end soon, probably not below 1.2485, to bounce up to 1.2750 and probably not higher then 1.2897, but we should wait the market to develop some indications before we can project possible targets up.
ID
Way below the expected target area, and although it could still be a valid count, the alternative gray count seems to be unfolding, which as I mentioned in fxs thread on MTec, would mean continued sideways trading in wave B, before we can expect a drop down to 1.22 and below...
Since this drop went this deep, it provides a wider range for the next move up below the 1.298 top.
Intermediate bias is still bearish, but I expect this drop to end soon, probably not below 1.2485, to bounce up to 1.2750 and probably not higher then 1.2897, but we should wait the market to develop some indications before we can project possible targets up.
ID
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