Sunday, March 26, 2006

JPY point

Hi friends
I'm just taking a rest addressing some private issues.
I just want to point to something that deserves attention, especially to you Joseph.










This is a Correlation Table from Dailyfx.com FXCM website.
As you can see on a yearly basis all pairs except USDCAD have had a fairly strong correlation with EURUSD. GBPUSD and USDCHF strong and constant correlation.
What is interesting and what I want to draw your attention at, is that USDJPY lost it's good correlation it had with EURUSD, and in fact shifted to a relatively good negative correlation last month.
(pay attention if the pair is XXX-USD or USD-XXX so USDJPY -0.86 is good positive correlation with EURUSD meaning both EUR and JPY moved in the same direction against the USD most of the time).
Below 116.90/40 is a good confirmation of a possible continuation down to 113.8 to 112.70 to 110.6 but if you want even better confirmation, break below 115.44 March 1 low will provide it.
Above recent high @ 118.48 and above 119.17 would make me consider 124 as a serious possibility.
Intraday, a most probable correction up to 117.75<>117.87 before any continuation down.

Take care all of you,
ID

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