Hi
I produced two short videos, one on EURUSD and the other on USDJPY.
You can find them here:
EURUSD
USDJPY
Friday, July 21, 2006
21 July Daily Update
EUR
...[A possible break below 1.247 low to 1.2394/38 (current price 1.2489)...first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893]...
Current daily high at 1.2678 but looking at the momentum it looks like it could make to the above levels 1.2707<>1.2715
JPY
...[possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down]... (current price 117.65)
Made a high 117.87 to reverse down, current low at 115.91, most probable bottom at 115.68/62. Below that 115.10<>114.89...
AUD
...[to bounce from 0.7434]... (current price 0.7445)
bounce was from 0.7405 not a clear targets here, probably not higher than 0.757<>0.759
GBP
...[probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35)]... (current price 1.8270)
Now right on 1.855 target (current high 1.8555). If higher, then possibly up to 1.8623
In general, you are now hunting an Minor* to Intermediate* top (On xxxUDS) and bottom (on USDxxx) pairs, meaning that if you position right, you can expect very very nice ride down (and it could serve even for the Primary* move down).
If I'm right, only the next move, and only on GBPUSD would be more than 1,200 pips. So no need to overexpose your self with huge leverage. (targets down after competition of the current action)
Looking at EUR it seems that this correction up could only be the first leg of a correction so we can expect one more down and one more up by the 24-31 of august (possibly as I mentioned above, to retest 1.286 to 1.2893)
However, it is my opinion that hunting this top/bottom would be very very rewarding. If played properly of course. If not, chances are (since it is a wave B) you get clean swiped.
I'd appreciate to hear your thoughts on the current market situation.
Take care,
idejan
*explanation for those that are not familiar with Elliott Wave terms
Minor translates to - Monthly, Weekly, Daily to 240 min moves
Intermediate - Monthly, Weekly, Daily
Primary - Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly
...[A possible break below 1.247 low to 1.2394/38 (current price 1.2489)...first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893]...
Current daily high at 1.2678 but looking at the momentum it looks like it could make to the above levels 1.2707<>1.2715
JPY
...[possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down]... (current price 117.65)
Made a high 117.87 to reverse down, current low at 115.91, most probable bottom at 115.68/62. Below that 115.10<>114.89...
AUD
...[to bounce from 0.7434]... (current price 0.7445)
bounce was from 0.7405 not a clear targets here, probably not higher than 0.757<>0.759
GBP
...[probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35)]... (current price 1.8270)
Now right on 1.855 target (current high 1.8555). If higher, then possibly up to 1.8623
In general, you are now hunting an Minor* to Intermediate* top (On xxxUDS) and bottom (on USDxxx) pairs, meaning that if you position right, you can expect very very nice ride down (and it could serve even for the Primary* move down).
If I'm right, only the next move, and only on GBPUSD would be more than 1,200 pips. So no need to overexpose your self with huge leverage. (targets down after competition of the current action)
Looking at EUR it seems that this correction up could only be the first leg of a correction so we can expect one more down and one more up by the 24-31 of august (possibly as I mentioned above, to retest 1.286 to 1.2893)
However, it is my opinion that hunting this top/bottom would be very very rewarding. If played properly of course. If not, chances are (since it is a wave B) you get clean swiped.
I'd appreciate to hear your thoughts on the current market situation.
Take care,
idejan
*explanation for those that are not familiar with Elliott Wave terms
Minor translates to - Monthly, Weekly, Daily to 240 min moves
Intermediate - Monthly, Weekly, Daily
Primary - Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
19 July Update
EUR A possible break below 1.247 low to 1.2394/38 (current price 1.2489)
JPY possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down... (current price 117.65)
AUD to bonce from 0.7434 (current price 0.7445)
GBP probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35 (current price 1.8270)
JPY possible continuation up to 118 levels then reverse down... (current price 117.65)
AUD to bonce from 0.7434 (current price 0.7445)
GBP probably up to 1.855 (break of the 1.817 bottom down to 1.7950/35 (current price 1.8270)
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
18 July Update, part 2
AUDUSD
It topped an hour after I posted. We still need a confirmation for the previously posted targets 0.7208 and below 0.7060/10 to 0.6860 Second leg is still forming (H4 chart the drop was first leg...) and it's not finished yet (meaning a possible one more move up before a continuation down) Next Minute move down would target a min of 0.7420 but more probably lower 0.7332/24...
NZDUSD
Right in the published target box. It entered into the box, lower band of the box, not sure it's over yet. We still need more clues for the longer term picture to unfold.
*GOLD* and *CrudeOil* I'm very confident it topped and we are about to see a significant decline (to 500 and below). Same for the CrudeOil (probably 50).
ID
PS. I wrote and sent this by mail to my blog around 16.30 and it is still not published. this was the first time I'm trying posting by mail. The first update (previous post) had few minutes delay (around 10min) but the second is now an hour late and still not even arrived.
That's why I've decided to post my update directly here while it could still be relevant since it is intraday comment :)
So mind that it was writen an hour before the time of the stamp here and if by any chance another copy of it appears later that means that my mail finaly arrived :)
I'll check later.
It topped an hour after I posted. We still need a confirmation for the previously posted targets 0.7208 and below 0.7060/10 to 0.6860 Second leg is still forming (H4 chart the drop was first leg...) and it's not finished yet (meaning a possible one more move up before a continuation down) Next Minute move down would target a min of 0.7420 but more probably lower 0.7332/24...
NZDUSD
Right in the published target box. It entered into the box, lower band of the box, not sure it's over yet. We still need more clues for the longer term picture to unfold.
*GOLD* and *CrudeOil* I'm very confident it topped and we are about to see a significant decline (to 500 and below). Same for the CrudeOil (probably 50).
ID
PS. I wrote and sent this by mail to my blog around 16.30 and it is still not published. this was the first time I'm trying posting by mail. The first update (previous post) had few minutes delay (around 10min) but the second is now an hour late and still not even arrived.
That's why I've decided to post my update directly here while it could still be relevant since it is intraday comment :)
So mind that it was writen an hour before the time of the stamp here and if by any chance another copy of it appears later that means that my mail finaly arrived :)
I'll check later.
18 July Update
EURUSD
Bounced just above 1.2485
If this low (1.2495) holds, then first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893
I don't expect it to be a nice IM sharp move up, but rather it will be slow sideways to up move.
USDJPY
(last update 6 July)
nice takeoff from that last update and right from the expected levels for a ~370 pips move.
Now a break below 116.65 would be a good indication for a retrace to a 115.63/32 and a break below that would be a good for 114.10<>113.70
But... Looking at the pattern of this recent rely, I suspect of a possible one more move up to finish it. Possibly not higher than 117.6, I was expecting 117.30/35. If higher than 117.6 then possibly 118.4
ID
(other pairs to follow in a while.
press CTRL+F5 for to refresh your browser.)
Bounced just above 1.2485
If this low (1.2495) holds, then first target up is 1.2580 to continue to 1.2665/78 to 1.2720. Break above that to retest 1.286 to 1.2893
I don't expect it to be a nice IM sharp move up, but rather it will be slow sideways to up move.
USDJPY
(last update 6 July)
nice takeoff from that last update and right from the expected levels for a ~370 pips move.
Now a break below 116.65 would be a good indication for a retrace to a 115.63/32 and a break below that would be a good for 114.10<>113.70
But... Looking at the pattern of this recent rely, I suspect of a possible one more move up to finish it. Possibly not higher than 117.6, I was expecting 117.30/35. If higher than 117.6 then possibly 118.4
ID
(other pairs to follow in a while.
press CTRL+F5 for to refresh your browser.)
Monday, July 17, 2006
17 July update
EURUSD
Way below the expected target area, and although it could still be a valid count, the alternative gray count seems to be unfolding, which as I mentioned in fxs thread on MTec, would mean continued sideways trading in wave B, before we can expect a drop down to 1.22 and below...
Since this drop went this deep, it provides a wider range for the next move up below the 1.298 top.
Intermediate bias is still bearish, but I expect this drop to end soon, probably not below 1.2485, to bounce up to 1.2750 and probably not higher then 1.2897, but we should wait the market to develop some indications before we can project possible targets up.
ID
Way below the expected target area, and although it could still be a valid count, the alternative gray count seems to be unfolding, which as I mentioned in fxs thread on MTec, would mean continued sideways trading in wave B, before we can expect a drop down to 1.22 and below...
Since this drop went this deep, it provides a wider range for the next move up below the 1.298 top.
Intermediate bias is still bearish, but I expect this drop to end soon, probably not below 1.2485, to bounce up to 1.2750 and probably not higher then 1.2897, but we should wait the market to develop some indications before we can project possible targets up.
ID
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
NZDUSD update
NZDUSD
last post on this pair was accurate call for a bottom, and turned to be a good buy call (~0.5960/50) for ~200 pips at current market price (0.6167).
Now watch 0.6198<>0.6233 for a possible retrace, but I would expect it to possibly go up to 0.6269<>0.6336
Still no clear answers to those questions. we need to let the market develop more clues, before we can have the answers.
I'm still not really convinced we have a bottom...
I'll try preparing more detailed analysis during the weekend.
I also consider continuing my video analysis series.
ID
last post on this pair was accurate call for a bottom, and turned to be a good buy call (~0.5960/50) for ~200 pips at current market price (0.6167).
Now watch 0.6198<>0.6233 for a possible retrace, but I would expect it to possibly go up to 0.6269<>0.6336
Still no clear answers to those questions. we need to let the market develop more clues, before we can have the answers.
I'm still not really convinced we have a bottom...
I'll try preparing more detailed analysis during the weekend.
I also consider continuing my video analysis series.
ID
AUDUSD daily update
AUDUSD topping, but it could go up to 0.7573<>0.7592
Depending on your strategy you could short from here and add if it goes higher with stop above 0.7592 or hunt the top from here with tight stops.
If this plays true, min target 0.7208
next targets 0.7060/10 to 0.6860 (most probable min target to finish larger correction). Below that 0.66
Nice confluence with Gold, which was contained in my target area for a while but broke above it today. That made me reconsider a possible break little higher on AUD too. Nevertheless it is either a top or very close to a top, which represents a nice R/R opportunity.
This is a great Risk to Reward opportunity.
Take care
idejan
Depending on your strategy you could short from here and add if it goes higher with stop above 0.7592 or hunt the top from here with tight stops.
If this plays true, min target 0.7208
next targets 0.7060/10 to 0.6860 (most probable min target to finish larger correction). Below that 0.66
Nice confluence with Gold, which was contained in my target area for a while but broke above it today. That made me reconsider a possible break little higher on AUD too. Nevertheless it is either a top or very close to a top, which represents a nice R/R opportunity.
This is a great Risk to Reward opportunity.
Take care
idejan
Monday, July 10, 2006
EURUSD update
On the chart is the update of the previously published chart.It shows a possible Running Flat (wave [b]), and if the recent fall wave (c) continues lower of (a) it will be an Extended Flat. Of course break below 1.2478 will confirm C down... On the other side, break above 1.2980 will invalidate this scenario.
Best to all
ID
Thursday, July 06, 2006
Gold and Crude
Nice confluence to USD view gives a look at GOLD chart and the CrudeOil chart.
Gold is about to finish a wave B up around 632.80<>636.45 to continue down to somewhere around 500.00<>437.50 probably 449.20
I expect same with Crude Oil, which could top somewhere around 76.56<>78.13 and correct down to around 50.00
This could be considered US Dollar positive.
idejan
Gold is about to finish a wave B up around 632.80<>636.45 to continue down to somewhere around 500.00<>437.50 probably 449.20
I expect same with Crude Oil, which could top somewhere around 76.56<>78.13 and correct down to around 50.00
This could be considered US Dollar positive.
idejan
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