USDX EW scenarios

Previous chart with running Flat is one possible scenario indicating AB finished, C possibly in progress (with red line indicating A, and light blue lines indicating a and c of a B) or one more leg down to finish c of B (darker blue in the Flat detail)
On this chart you can see two similar scenarios. At the moment it is the best I can do. Not really clear and it is due to the fact that I had a small pause, I was not following news and it is important to me since I don't look only in the geometry of waves, but I'm trying to grasp whats beneath.
The sentiment is still very USD bullish, "fundamentals" are not.
With Crude falling in a free fall, and signs of slowing in the economy, especially housing, for which I wrote in September last year that is a major contributor of the GDP, more tightening could be hardly justified, but is not impossible to happen.
here is the chart :)
ID
will be back with comment on NZD chart.

DX daily chart with EW -- ID, your thoughts?

ID, sock it to me; you won't hurt my feelings; when I called a couple Crude Oil tops, even my dad stopped talking to me. I'm used to it, hehehehehe.

My take:

From December 31st 2004 bottom DX is in wave (A) up.

Waves A and B of (A) completed very early as shown.

Wave C of (A) started March 11 and is still in force.

Currently should start wave c of (iv) down.

Then (v) up to complete wave (A).

The drop to the confluence of 2 Fibs, one a genuine descendent of Fibonacci, the other a voodoo concoction, is also close to the trendline shown -- no violation of encroachment into wave (i) territory.

I thought my life was going to be easier after leaving MoneyTec, but this EW is like working for the FBI .....

Regards

NZDUSD long-term chart for ID (if necessary) -- for EW.

I've erased my EW labels as I really am not at all confident of the count.

I'll leave that to you ID.

With the 7.5% current Libor rate for NZD, it is clear why I'm interested in this currency.

Pairing with CHF is being looked into (with JPY too), but it offers a nice enough differential even when paired with USD. If DX weakens, this could be sweet for (LONG) NZDUSD

Regards

NZDUSD

Attached is NZDUSD monthly -- please help the long-term (only) count. Are
we in (4) down?

Would appreciate your rationale.

Thanks

Joseph

Update 15 Feb

CAD
Thank you Anonymous, :)
Yes, that spike during the news was a nasty one, always too risky to trade before news, and it completely swiped my previous CAD post, so it doesn't even matter that after the dust came down, CAD made to 1.1511
Intraday support little above the recent low at 1.1511 and below that 1.1490/85 to retest 1.1374 low and possibly continue below.
Above 1.1568/73 resistance at 1.1660/1750 to 1.2000/2020

Crude made to the first target (closed right above the fib line and important MA on wkly) and I expect a correction to 64.30<>65.50 before it continues down to somewhere around 50 (54-47 or 44-32)

USDX Critical support around 90.35 and 90

JPY
I am confident it will stay below 117.69/85 but certainly below 118
Strong support between 117.30 and 116.87 break below that support area will confirm 115.45/06 to continue down to 111.6 to 110.7

AUD
Not really an opportunity there yet.
Probably down to 0.7395/89 then up to 0.7427/35 .
Gold quite possibly in a correction up to 556.7/557.7 to continue down to around 510.

This could indicate possible AUD move up above the mentioned resistance to test 0.7510/77/98 and possibly 0.7697
Below, support @ .7389 for a .7232 to .6773

Crude and Gold, and partly USDX, all support weaker dollar on very short term at least.
it is quite late, continuation in the morning
ID

CAD intraday

Could be a nice setup in CAD (just a glimpse)
most probable direction intraday id down to min 1.1510. Below that is safe play.
Above 1.1576 up to 1.1664 to 1.1756
Be back in few hours for more detail, just wanted to bring this to your attention.
ID

USDX update

A possible development I was considering on EURUSD too.
The fact the that possibly finished C, ended equally in a cent of previous decline wave A,
could confirm Once Upon a Time in the West scenario, which teaches to never turn a back on a dangerous guy, even if he showed up on a gunfight only with a knife.
If 90.35 and 90.10 provide solid support, we can expect USDX to continue for a final rally before a larger degree move south.
However, looking on a Daily and weekly, a possible min correction down from here could be around 89.50/55 for a retest and continuation below 87.83, before a final continuation up.
Let's see how this unfolds.

On the picture is what could be a Running Flat (light blue) and the other part (darker blue) is what could follow if this is not a finished Running Flat.
ID

This is piratically the second day in the new home, we are still moving in, so please have a little patience. We need to accommodate to this new media. I was just told that this is practically a web site and we can add pages with lots of useful content, so if you have any suggestions what could be useful just write. I have few crazy ideas my self, but for now let's stick with simple blogging. I'll let Stojce surprise us with some more useful and handy stuff.

ID

GBP

A thought on GBP for Joseph (Trader01) as he was looking for a time of movement in the pair. Everyone has their own trading preferences that are unique to the individual, as for myself (mainly because of gracious tutoring and the fact that it makes sense in my Bear Brains) I look for a time for change as well as price.Shown is a point in time, figured from the cross angles of the pitchfork, for the pound to react. Although I like the current low and would respect it as long as it holds, my thoughts on equal or measured moves are shown in the event of the low being breached.This is more of an if then setup, Long, if the channel holds and if price is in the box at the appointed time ( choosing from various fib and trend line levels that would be determined then).
Bear

EUR - by Bear

Here is message I've just received from Bear:

Thought I’d send my daily on the euro, guess it all depends on how you view the top back at the start of “05”. Having a few different thoughts from the start of the year where I was placing that 5 on the 1640 low.Thinking that area is now the end of the 3rd and we are now turning north on C to finish out 4.As long as the bottom tine on the pitchfork holds, 11850ish, think this view is still valid below this opens the door for a retest of the 11640 area and the bottom of the channel them 11300’s and low 11400’s mentioned at the end of last year.Something like this……Like the Blog, keep up the good work and send my regards to Trader01 and the gang.
____________
Tnx Bear, and I wait for your approval to add you in the members list so you can contribute to the benefit of all readers.

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Hi guys
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Stojce