EurUsd: A pair if one dies? A view to a kill; 2006-07

The Draw:

Euro: Nothing matters now - not the land, not the money, not the woman. I came here to see you. 'Cause I know that now, after all this time, you'll finally tell me what you're after.

Dollar: ... Only at the point of dyin'.

Euro: ... I know.

The draw begins and euro is shot thru' the heart, the bullet whipping his body 180 degrees -- he falls to the ground but he ain't dead yet.

Euro: Who are you?

Dollar: (takes off the harmonica hanging around his neck, walks up to the sprawled Euro and places it in his mouth. Euro's eyes start wandering as his mind flutters in an attempt to determine the significance of the harmonica -- then recognition arrives as he realizes he himself had placed this very same harmonica in the mouth of Dollar when he was down and out back in late 2004; a mere shadow of himself -- and with Bill Gates and Warren Buffet taunting and screaming insults at the downtrodden greenback.)

Just as long as the song doesn’t end up like this

I've seen the bright lights of Memphis And the Commodore Hotel And underneath a street lamp I met a Southern belle

Well, she took me to the river Where she cast a spell And in that Southern moonlight She sang this song so well
If you'll be my Dixie chicken I'll be your Tennessee lamb And we can walk together Down in Dixieland

Yeah well, we made all the hot spots My money flowed like wine And then that low-down Southern whiskey Began to fog my mind

And I don't remember church bells Or the money I put down On the white picket-fence and boardwalk Of the house at the edge of town

Oh, but boy do I remember The strain of her refrain And the nights we spent together And the way she called my name

If you'll be my Dixie chicken I'll be your Tennessee lamb And we can walk together Down in Dixieland

Yeah, well it's been a year since she ran away Guess that guitar player sure could play She always liked to sing along She's always handy with a song

Then one night in the lobby Of the Commodore Hotel I chanced to meet a bartender Who said he knew her well

And as he handed me a drink He began to hum a song And all the boys there at the bar Began to sing along

If you'll be my Dixie chicken I'll be your Tennessee lamb And we can walk together Down in Dixieland

Little Feat





Gonna throw out a intra-day bearish contrasting view, me thinking euro’s has seen the high for the week and is heading south towards the black median, if current high is taken out will look to short off a retest of the upper black tine 2085/2100. Looking at the moment for any retest back into the 2030-40ish area to short.





As for the Cad have put on a small long position and have scaled in from 1348 thru 1311 pyramiding my entries remainder of orders are sitting just under 1300, 1290 area.

Time will tell......

USDCAD: Defcon 4 alert ... oil weaponry & wait!

75% probability for ignition at contact point shown in daily chart. Caveat: 161.8 level is still a bit lower on voodoo Fib grid and is acting like a magnet/magnate. Macd has already made contact. RSi not yet. The trendline supports are from 2004 and 2003 respectively and command considerable respect. If they fire, it will be a rocket blast for some good gains, even if it is only for a few days.

More as we go

Go salowly.

Currency trading ... this comes to mind

She walks everday thru' the streets of New Orleans
She's innocent and young, from a family of means,
I've stood many times outside her window at night,
To struggle with my instinct in the pale moonlight,

How can I be this way when I pray to God above,
I must love what I destroy and destroy the thing I love?

........................................... Sting

My recent call -- result .... what's yet to come is gravy!

See chart:

First yellow ellipse: short closed and reversed to new LONG with low position size entry.

Second yellow: added another LONG, double the previous size, but still relatively small.

What happened then? My hL (shown with the blue check mark on chart) notation just below the 2nd ellipse was my take that we had a higher low. I was wrong as EurUsd rose but then dived to a new low. I was embarrassed and pain shot thru' my corpse with tantalizing accuracy.

What followed the final low makes me a proud newbie -- 2 heavy duty premature ejaculatory leverage plays were fired in quick succession, as you can see by the brown ellipses. As we approached the 200-pd MA on 4-hr (with the 200-pd on daily within slingshot reach) I withdrew the ejaculators and reduced them to just 1:1 as I wait for possible retrace or further breakout.

Whatever comes now is just gravy, of which I will partake heartily.

Is this the wave C up that I called the final charge upward to complete the Euro rally that started Nov 16th? Dunno, but I'm entitled to call it Joseph3 ... for now.

Therefore the entire 4-hr turn has been called and is now concluded!

There is much to learn still; it is clear that I was in early -- I don't like that and need to work on this some more. But I gots the time and the inclination to do this and do it well.

Other newbies -- it can be done, disregard the 90% loser propaganda that is so amply written about at the graveyard! Bah!

God, do I love it so!

EurUsd: EW International's current take

ID has produced yet another masterpiece. Clearly laid out alternatives and excellent study material for a student. Much obliged.

Shocked to see ID's "despised" alternative coincide with my preferred call. I thought we was friends! :) :)

Presented is EWI's latest EurUsd take -- its on their website and is a free article; don't believe I'm violating any copyright laws, but if so, I'll straighten it out with them, if contacted.

Here's the article in its entirety:


What Moved EURUSD Today: Facts or Speculation?
2/28/2006 3:00:24 PM

Today (Tuesday, Feb. 28) was an especially interesting day to watch forex headlines. In the very early morning hours U.S. time, one major online news source ran a story saying that the dollar was “headed for its first monthly gain since November against the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates.”

Oh, that proverbial “speculation” about the soon-to-be-here higher interest rates. Listen to that reasoning, and buying the U.S. dollar every day is a great idea. But oops – how ironic – just as that story was hitting the newswires, around 2:30 AM this morning the dollar started to fall, sending the EURUSD almost 100 pips higher by noon.

Seeing such “unexpected market action,” the headlines changed the tune later in the morning, blaming the EURUSD rally on two negative economic reports released at 10 AM: drops in consumer confidence and Chicago area manufacturing.

Of course, if you check the chronology, you’ll see that the USD started losing to the EUR almost eight hours before the Chicago PMI and consumer confidence numbers came out. In fact, by 10 AM this morning, the EURUSD rally was already half-way finished.

Still, forex reporters did get one fact straight today – the one about the currency markets being moved by speculation about facts, not necessarily by facts themselves. Speculation is all about hunches, feelings and emotions – in a word, about psychology. And few market analysis methods are as good at anticipating shifts in market psychology as Elliott wave.

To wit, here’s the forecast we published Monday night in anticipation of today’s EURUSD rally:


Update For: TuesdayPosted On: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 21:19:00 GMTEURUSD [Last Price]: 1.1849Confidence Level: Medium-High …the Minor wave A bottom is in place and that an irregular flat Minor wave B corrective rally is in its early stages.

EURUSD 2005 drop

Hi
I know I've posted my preferred views on EURUSD in few occasions on MoneyTec, and know I am posting kind off an update of that Charts.

Joseph, I started writing my analysis on JPY Longer Term, but would definitely like to try a recorded video or a MS NetMeeting conference. I have some problems with audio, hope to solve it quickly. If not I'll have to write it. I'll do NIKKEI and CAD together with JPY.

On the charts is the drop from beginning of 2005. Since I believe the chart is clear enough no need to explain it.















Second chart is the recent drop and how I see it.

As I wrote few posts back in those Market updates, I believe we are in a downtrend and I don't expect any surprises.


But there is a possibility of a correction to go to upper levels 1.2040 to 1.2160
On the chart up are the resistance levels, and above that could comletely change the view.
If USDX can't make it above 90.40/55 then we can expect it will drop further down, so possible larger gains in USD based pair.

For Bear : misunderstanding!

Bear,

Thank you for your explanation on the subject of assumed risk. Nicely stated.

However, I see you've misunderstood me quite a bit.

I was not looking to enter UsdJpy at the resistance level of 121 or even thereabouts. Such an entry, even one for a long-term play, would be foolhardy as the most probable route is south. Buying a top is the 2nd worst sin in my book.

Even before my post I had a gameplan wherein I would enter on the correction to the area between 108 and 116 -- not @ 121. This is still my plan regardless the longer-term view.

The question was not entry dependent, only directional dependent -- i.e. looong-term is UsdJpy heading to the upper reaches or to the basement. EW thoughts and other types of analysis, all welcome.

Hope this clears things up.

USDCAD: Some important points to consider.

I will enter only on breakout! If we do get to the 78.6% retracement level @ 1.1000, I will position. The 75% Long/Short ratio at Oanda suggests a short-term rally, but for a lasting bottom we've got to see a "flip" in positioning -- i.e. a sudden switch by the majority to a Net Short position. Then we might have a true bottom.

UsdCad is retracing the entire run from 1970 -- Jan 2002 and has crossed the 61.8% fib & is just shy of the 78.6 @ 1.1000. Core support, dating back to 1978 has slowed down this freight train some.

Lowest RSI weekly reading in June 2003 -- divergence galore; players banking on divergence alone can be found in low-cost hospitals all around the world.

I've swing traded this beauty very gently -- low leverage plays, profitable but not worthy of substantial merit.

She's got to retrace the drop from May 2005 sooner or later -- that will be a nice run. I shall partake of her bounty, but only on breakout!

ID, know any other establishment that puts out accurate Long/Short ratios, other than Oanda?

EurUsd: As straight as I can say it, friends or no friends!

EurUsd is declining in a large degree A-B-C pattern. Stated another way, the decline from December 31st, 2004 is NOT a 5-waver down!

Trying to put 5-waver labels on the run into 1640 will engender considerable difficulty later on.

It is best that one resolves these difficulties asap and has plenty of powder ready for the large degree wave C down, which is yet to come, perhaps later this year -- we are still a ways from this, but preparation is the ticket here.

Any which way you cut it, EurUsd ain't in a '5' down!

:) Peace brothers!