USDSGD: here's my EW count

I can see the entire island in under 2 hrs but I'll be damned if I can figure out the count with any degree of confidence!

ID: Need reinforcements; I'm outnumbered & outflanked!

I need your help, buddy. The count for USDTHB

USDTHB: Oanda has the data for the Father, the Son and the Holy Ghost -- i.e. Japanese Yen, Singapore dollar and Thai Baht -- all versus USD. Their relationship to each other w.r.t. USD is unmistakeable and their tight bond is in line with regional relationships in the stock market indexes too. Since early September 2005, the Baht's tight correlation suddenly derailed.


I've done well for 4 years knowing when to switch between one and the other (USD or THB) in a non-currency trading sense; but now, since I am a currency trader and live in SE Asia, the importance of this pair in my life has exponentialized.

There is not even one good, reliable conventional Tech. analyst (EW analysts? .. forget it!) in the region, so for years I've gone the Thai Stockmarket totally alone, generally against the entire stock analysts calls and have been winning, but I've come to a crossroads and I'm lost with regard to this pair since September.

This is the reason why I therefore stayed out of the Thai stockmarket since then -- I've lost out on stock gains by not playing, but due to the fact that the Baht is 90%+ positively correlated to the stock market, I felt that my uncertainty on the Baht justified my not entering the stock market.

OK then -- see monthly & weekly charts. If necessary I can shoot off the Metastock format to you -- data goes back to 1984 for USDTHB and to 1991 for USDSGD.

As for USDJPY, we have already discussed that before, so need to take it up again except as a reference, if necessary.

I do realize and know quite well that EW analysis insists on studying a market for itself, regardless of relationships to other markets, but I brought up the 2 other pairs solely for reference and background in the event it might help put some perspective on my dilemma.

Regards

Joseph

Dow Jones: One more shot at 11,200?

A fundamental analyst was on his way to the airport; suddenly, upon seeing a signpost, he became extremely disappointed and made a U-turn, muttering under his breath and headed back home.

Why?

Because the signpost said, "Airport left"

Interest rates

Einstein dies and goes to heaven only to be informed that his room is not yet ready.

"I hope you will not mind waiting in a dormitory. We are very sorry, but it's the best we can do and you will have to share the room with others" he is told by the doorman.

Einstein says that this is no problem at all and that there is no need to make such a great fuss. So the doorman leads him to the dorm. They enter and Albert is introduced to all of the present inhabitants.

"See, Here is your first room mate. He has an IQ of 180!" "Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can discuss mathematics!"

"And here is your second room mate. His IQ is 150!" "Why that's wonderful!" Says Albert. "We can discuss physics!"

"And here is your third room mate. His IQ is 100!""That Wonderful! We can discuss the latest plays at the theater!"

Just then another man moves out to capture Albert's hand and shake it. "I'm your last room mate and I'm sorry, but my IQ is only 80.

"Albert smiles back at him and says, "So, where do you think interest rates are headed?"

EurUsd: A pair if one dies? A view to a kill; 2006-07

The Draw:

Euro: Nothing matters now - not the land, not the money, not the woman. I came here to see you. 'Cause I know that now, after all this time, you'll finally tell me what you're after.

Dollar: ... Only at the point of dyin'.

Euro: ... I know.

The draw begins and euro is shot thru' the heart, the bullet whipping his body 180 degrees -- he falls to the ground but he ain't dead yet.

Euro: Who are you?

Dollar: (takes off the harmonica hanging around his neck, walks up to the sprawled Euro and places it in his mouth. Euro's eyes start wandering as his mind flutters in an attempt to determine the significance of the harmonica -- then recognition arrives as he realizes he himself had placed this very same harmonica in the mouth of Dollar when he was down and out back in late 2004; a mere shadow of himself -- and with Bill Gates and Warren Buffet taunting and screaming insults at the downtrodden greenback.)

Just as long as the song doesn’t end up like this

I've seen the bright lights of Memphis And the Commodore Hotel And underneath a street lamp I met a Southern belle

Well, she took me to the river Where she cast a spell And in that Southern moonlight She sang this song so well
If you'll be my Dixie chicken I'll be your Tennessee lamb And we can walk together Down in Dixieland

Yeah well, we made all the hot spots My money flowed like wine And then that low-down Southern whiskey Began to fog my mind

And I don't remember church bells Or the money I put down On the white picket-fence and boardwalk Of the house at the edge of town

Oh, but boy do I remember The strain of her refrain And the nights we spent together And the way she called my name

If you'll be my Dixie chicken I'll be your Tennessee lamb And we can walk together Down in Dixieland

Yeah, well it's been a year since she ran away Guess that guitar player sure could play She always liked to sing along She's always handy with a song

Then one night in the lobby Of the Commodore Hotel I chanced to meet a bartender Who said he knew her well

And as he handed me a drink He began to hum a song And all the boys there at the bar Began to sing along

If you'll be my Dixie chicken I'll be your Tennessee lamb And we can walk together Down in Dixieland

Little Feat





Gonna throw out a intra-day bearish contrasting view, me thinking euro’s has seen the high for the week and is heading south towards the black median, if current high is taken out will look to short off a retest of the upper black tine 2085/2100. Looking at the moment for any retest back into the 2030-40ish area to short.





As for the Cad have put on a small long position and have scaled in from 1348 thru 1311 pyramiding my entries remainder of orders are sitting just under 1300, 1290 area.

Time will tell......

USDCAD: Defcon 4 alert ... oil weaponry & wait!

75% probability for ignition at contact point shown in daily chart. Caveat: 161.8 level is still a bit lower on voodoo Fib grid and is acting like a magnet/magnate. Macd has already made contact. RSi not yet. The trendline supports are from 2004 and 2003 respectively and command considerable respect. If they fire, it will be a rocket blast for some good gains, even if it is only for a few days.

More as we go

Go salowly.

Currency trading ... this comes to mind

She walks everday thru' the streets of New Orleans
She's innocent and young, from a family of means,
I've stood many times outside her window at night,
To struggle with my instinct in the pale moonlight,

How can I be this way when I pray to God above,
I must love what I destroy and destroy the thing I love?

........................................... Sting

My recent call -- result .... what's yet to come is gravy!

See chart:

First yellow ellipse: short closed and reversed to new LONG with low position size entry.

Second yellow: added another LONG, double the previous size, but still relatively small.

What happened then? My hL (shown with the blue check mark on chart) notation just below the 2nd ellipse was my take that we had a higher low. I was wrong as EurUsd rose but then dived to a new low. I was embarrassed and pain shot thru' my corpse with tantalizing accuracy.

What followed the final low makes me a proud newbie -- 2 heavy duty premature ejaculatory leverage plays were fired in quick succession, as you can see by the brown ellipses. As we approached the 200-pd MA on 4-hr (with the 200-pd on daily within slingshot reach) I withdrew the ejaculators and reduced them to just 1:1 as I wait for possible retrace or further breakout.

Whatever comes now is just gravy, of which I will partake heartily.

Is this the wave C up that I called the final charge upward to complete the Euro rally that started Nov 16th? Dunno, but I'm entitled to call it Joseph3 ... for now.

Therefore the entire 4-hr turn has been called and is now concluded!

There is much to learn still; it is clear that I was in early -- I don't like that and need to work on this some more. But I gots the time and the inclination to do this and do it well.

Other newbies -- it can be done, disregard the 90% loser propaganda that is so amply written about at the graveyard! Bah!

God, do I love it so!

EurUsd: EW International's current take

ID has produced yet another masterpiece. Clearly laid out alternatives and excellent study material for a student. Much obliged.

Shocked to see ID's "despised" alternative coincide with my preferred call. I thought we was friends! :) :)

Presented is EWI's latest EurUsd take -- its on their website and is a free article; don't believe I'm violating any copyright laws, but if so, I'll straighten it out with them, if contacted.

Here's the article in its entirety:


What Moved EURUSD Today: Facts or Speculation?
2/28/2006 3:00:24 PM

Today (Tuesday, Feb. 28) was an especially interesting day to watch forex headlines. In the very early morning hours U.S. time, one major online news source ran a story saying that the dollar was “headed for its first monthly gain since November against the euro on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates.”

Oh, that proverbial “speculation” about the soon-to-be-here higher interest rates. Listen to that reasoning, and buying the U.S. dollar every day is a great idea. But oops – how ironic – just as that story was hitting the newswires, around 2:30 AM this morning the dollar started to fall, sending the EURUSD almost 100 pips higher by noon.

Seeing such “unexpected market action,” the headlines changed the tune later in the morning, blaming the EURUSD rally on two negative economic reports released at 10 AM: drops in consumer confidence and Chicago area manufacturing.

Of course, if you check the chronology, you’ll see that the USD started losing to the EUR almost eight hours before the Chicago PMI and consumer confidence numbers came out. In fact, by 10 AM this morning, the EURUSD rally was already half-way finished.

Still, forex reporters did get one fact straight today – the one about the currency markets being moved by speculation about facts, not necessarily by facts themselves. Speculation is all about hunches, feelings and emotions – in a word, about psychology. And few market analysis methods are as good at anticipating shifts in market psychology as Elliott wave.

To wit, here’s the forecast we published Monday night in anticipation of today’s EURUSD rally:


Update For: TuesdayPosted On: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 21:19:00 GMTEURUSD [Last Price]: 1.1849Confidence Level: Medium-High …the Minor wave A bottom is in place and that an irregular flat Minor wave B corrective rally is in its early stages.