ID: Need reinforcements; I'm outnumbered & outflanked!

I need your help, buddy. The count for USDTHB

USDTHB: Oanda has the data for the Father, the Son and the Holy Ghost -- i.e. Japanese Yen, Singapore dollar and Thai Baht -- all versus USD. Their relationship to each other w.r.t. USD is unmistakeable and their tight bond is in line with regional relationships in the stock market indexes too. Since early September 2005, the Baht's tight correlation suddenly derailed.


I've done well for 4 years knowing when to switch between one and the other (USD or THB) in a non-currency trading sense; but now, since I am a currency trader and live in SE Asia, the importance of this pair in my life has exponentialized.

There is not even one good, reliable conventional Tech. analyst (EW analysts? .. forget it!) in the region, so for years I've gone the Thai Stockmarket totally alone, generally against the entire stock analysts calls and have been winning, but I've come to a crossroads and I'm lost with regard to this pair since September.

This is the reason why I therefore stayed out of the Thai stockmarket since then -- I've lost out on stock gains by not playing, but due to the fact that the Baht is 90%+ positively correlated to the stock market, I felt that my uncertainty on the Baht justified my not entering the stock market.

OK then -- see monthly & weekly charts. If necessary I can shoot off the Metastock format to you -- data goes back to 1984 for USDTHB and to 1991 for USDSGD.

As for USDJPY, we have already discussed that before, so need to take it up again except as a reference, if necessary.

I do realize and know quite well that EW analysis insists on studying a market for itself, regardless of relationships to other markets, but I brought up the 2 other pairs solely for reference and background in the event it might help put some perspective on my dilemma.

Regards

Joseph