This could be the right time to buy USD!

Hello everyone,
It's been quite some time since my last post, and I thank all of you that were digging this blog all this months making it being of some use.
I just sent email, that I'm republishing here, to my dear friend Joseph and I thought you should know too that in my opinion we are sitting on a critical juncture...
Any way, it was Joseph who draw attention to this juncture early at the begining of the year.
Here is the message:

Hi Joseph,
I just updated my data and opened my charts to see what was happening while I was gone. I'll need some time to get back into the zone.
First, just a short on EUR and once again my feeling is that it is impossible to see EURUSD going above 1.3
So, the recent top could be it, and we could be in a wave c down of a larger degree (intermediate). That could be a hell of a ride down.
1.15 min. but way down to 1.11<>1.09 if not lower.On a smaller time frame, we could be in a Minor wave A down of the larger c down, with first smaller wave A of that minor A finished with this last drop. This recent move up is to give more answers but I can see it's target around 1.2700/50 being a nice shorting opportunity. Of course it could retest the top above that. I'm not very found to EUR this days.

But on the other hand, you know my favorite is JPY so I am putting a little extra effort into it. This recent move up on an hourly is to finish 115.70/116.10 to finish first wave up of a continuation up in wave y of larger wave a to 128<>145 probably 128.7/134/140.9/143.65 by the end of the year. It would finish that first wave a of a larger wave (y) up to 144/170/190/210 to finish in the next 3 years. So, the next small correction down would provide excellent risk to reward opportunity to buy USDJPY, around 113.4/113 for those that missed the opportunity to enter lower.

AUDUSD down to .68<>.66; NZD .5860<>.5260 (a slight chance that it could go up to .64/.66 (.6530) first); SGD not clear with this one but it is right in the box (both by time and price) for a finished larger correction and possible continuation up or at least a second leg up to around 1.8<>1.9 but you should know better on this one :)

Buying the next dips in most of the USDxxx pairs for a nice ride up could be a good advice. :) (opposite in xxxUSD pairs of course)
Of course it does not apply to CAD and you know my view on it :)

I will need some time to recover and to see if I will be able to keep posting at some decent pace.
Once again, thanks to all of you.
Take care,
ID

Announcement

Hi
I see that few still visit this blog although there are no regular updates.
I just want to inform all of you that I won't be publishing any new updates at least for a month.
Best regards to all of you,
IDejan

USDCAD

Here is my longer term view on Canadian Dollar, the one in blue is published before and the green one is the alternative one.
Taking only the drop from may 2006 it indicates possible not finished pattern(s) with more to the south. SO no matter what the longer term view is, intermediate view is still down to probably 1.1 if not 0.9

However, this pair has been delivering a lot of surprises, so I would not rule out that green alternative and a possible Minor move up to finish that green (x).

Crude made much higher than I expected, but it is still into the channel.
My view on Crude is down to $50/b, but as Joseph pointed in one of his myth busters episodes, it depends how you see CAD correlates with Crude...


ID

AUDUSD

This is a possible Intermediate view on AUDUSD.
Alternative in gray indicates possible finished correction and possible continuation up.
I however expect little more on the downside. Possibly .6958/48 to .6729
ID

NZD call explained on video

Hi
I just published a video explaining that good call on NZDUSD I've made on 21 of February 2006.
Bear in mind that this is a selected successful call, after the fact, (typical for services :) ).
I've chosen this call as a good example of a nice C wave.
There are and will be calls that would not work as this one. Although there were good confirmations for this particular one:
It drop below Wave A end point (low) and below 61.8 Fib Extension. It also made below it's internal subwave A (or 1) end point (low) giving another confirmation for a C of a C and it made below my most important MAID (green line) indicating possibility of going to the next MAID (gray line). My modified RSI was also pointing down (not shown on this video), so anyway there was a strong confluence for calling this wave C at that time.
I'll leave you watch the video now.
Take care
ID

http://www.freewebs.com/waveid/video/NZD%20Call.html

JPY update

It made only to 117.6 since my previous post, and broke down to mentioned support area of 116.9<>116.4 made low exactly at 116.4

On the chart is what I consider a good argument for my view.
The fact that I see possible strong Dollar in other pairs at least in near term makes me uncomfortable a bit, but still this latest development gives me confidence in my view.
As you can see on the chart, C made to exactly 61.8 Fib Extension of the previous move, returning a strong IM drop down, which after a correction returned again a strong IM drop down.
Now 117.39 low (smaller wave 1 end) is critical for this drop to qualify for wave 1 of larger 3rd, and we need a 5th down to strengthen this view.
Break below wave 1 low 115.49 should give strong move down in a 3rd wave down.
Alternative is wave 1 being wave A IM of a ZZ, in which case 3rd will become C and will finish the drop down.

I haven't done a follow up of my Market Updates for a month, last call overshot my targets up significantly.
AUD was the best of all, pinpointly accurate, returning more than 400 pips since then and will probably make few hundreds more to just below 0.68. NZD also turned to an excellent call and it adds to what I mentioned somewhere before, that 3rds and Cs are the most easier to spot, predict and trade, with lowest risk and with greatest reward. I've looked at NZD because Joseph draw my attention on it and it returned almost 600 pips since than. I believe it will make some more before it finishes this drop.
I'll try preparing an update for EUR, GBP, CAD but don't expect too much.
ID

Joseph, NZD!

See my post (chart) from 21 Feb... This drop and the whole correction should be very close to bottom if not finished, probably 0.5990 to 0.5940 and the next move up to 0.65 to 0.67
We should wait and see the development before we decide if this would be continuation up of a larger degree C or just first leg A of B of larger B.

There is a slight chance of seeing one more move down (possible wave 5 if this drop C develops IM...) below mentioned target support of .599 <> .594 but even so I expect a min move up to .635<>.64 first.
Once again I don't follow NZD so take it with reserve.
ID

JPY point

Hi friends
I'm just taking a rest addressing some private issues.
I just want to point to something that deserves attention, especially to you Joseph.










This is a Correlation Table from Dailyfx.com FXCM website.
As you can see on a yearly basis all pairs except USDCAD have had a fairly strong correlation with EURUSD. GBPUSD and USDCHF strong and constant correlation.
What is interesting and what I want to draw your attention at, is that USDJPY lost it's good correlation it had with EURUSD, and in fact shifted to a relatively good negative correlation last month.
(pay attention if the pair is XXX-USD or USD-XXX so USDJPY -0.86 is good positive correlation with EURUSD meaning both EUR and JPY moved in the same direction against the USD most of the time).
Below 116.90/40 is a good confirmation of a possible continuation down to 113.8 to 112.70 to 110.6 but if you want even better confirmation, break below 115.44 March 1 low will provide it.
Above recent high @ 118.48 and above 119.17 would make me consider 124 as a serious possibility.
Intraday, a most probable correction up to 117.75<>117.87 before any continuation down.

Take care all of you,
ID

Nobody loves me! :) :)

Yeah, after I leave, only then do people start opening up their souls and pondering why I felt like I got a giant kick in the ass. :) :)

It was more fun with my ex-wife in divorce court, where I was given a lesson in reverse leverage and a sobering glimpse of the Promised Land -- where the water tastes like wine, but all the while one's rear end just keeps puckering up.

But what the heck, problems are meant to be solved -- just splitting never helped nobody nohow, hehehehe.

I see that my friend ID continues to underestimate himself, belittle his knowledge and teaching skills -- all this, notwithstanding the severe admonishment he delivered to me in an email, wherein he touched upon my "lack of confidence in my EW skills" :)

And, where the heck was Bear? He reminds me of the woman you complained about her lover -- "he flies in like a bat, tickles me silly for a couple nanoseconds and then vanishes for months."

Just because I was smart enough to escape from the rat race at 39 doesn't mean I gots to do all the work! :)

Change is a fact of life. So, how can this be made better?

Dialogue is the only answer. This is a 2-terminal universe; masturbation is the only activity that it encourages be done alone!

But its got to be a 2-way street with multiple givers -- and I mean that -- multiple givers, many, many individuals putting their thoughts out, questioning others' analysis, asking stuff, getting things cleared up, making calls, refuting calls .... and so on .... you gots the idea?

A Forum then?

Its called Dialogue and its up to the participants to make it illuminating.

The 2 best posters at Moneytec were (are) Idejan and Fxsurfer. The former fondles, caresses and consoles the dead, while the latter rattles their bones with 20-lot, multiple daily ejaculations.

Had no idea forex was going to be this entertaining; even if it makes me go broke -- still highly worth it! :)

Yen and Yang

Idejan,

Your comments are well said but I believe we all teach to some degree when we post, we express an idea or thought and set forth a list of reasons/criteria why we think this view is valid and look for comments feedback from others to support or invalidate our thoughts. From this we learn as a student and the cycle starts over again.

How ever I must admit that your views on Elliott Wave Analysis are some of the best or better said most complete and comprehensive that I’ve seen. While you do not see yourself as a teacher, one can learn a great deal from studying the views you share. Don’t sell yourself short. Yes there are several books and sources that one could go to learn about EW, but you have a very good understanding and are grounded in the (for lack of a better description) traditional Elliott Wave approach and you express yourself very well.

But I would suggest that the Blog would be better served as it was originally intended ( as I understand it anyway) the open exchange of ideas rather than that of a classroom. However I must confess that I receive a lot more than I put in. :)

Will try to do more.

And I must apologize to Joseph for my silence but some of the questions you asked are completely outside my area of knowledge, and I was looking for others to answer.

I do have some thoughts on divergence, the math behind the different indicators will show divergence differently but when price on it’s second thrust does not move an equal or grater distance in the same time as the first, divergence will show itself. When wave 5 exceeds wave three but the distance in the length of the waves is smaller( 5 less than 3) an oscillator will show divergence, it's all about distance and time traveled. It’s normal and can be seen with the eyes. From your posts I gather your familiar with this and I will try to put together some thoughts and publish.

Sorry to get carried away there and ramble.

I would add that everyone that comes on the blog, please comment, ask questions. Say hello! After all, it’s how we learn.

Idejan, Joseph and Stojce thank you, hope the discussion continues.

Wishing all a great weekend.

Bear