Wave impressions

Thought I’d throw up a chart I have running in the background with the two predominant views, and ask a question for you Elliott Waveticians.

One of the points that was brought up in the Videos was the fact that reversals start with impulsive/motive waves, and that appearance has a lot to do with nomenclature.




Looking at this, maybe it’s just me but this euro fall from the start of last year, looks impulsive?????

I know there are many counts regarding this as a corrective wave, and using the old adages “you can’t tell a book by it’s cover” but “if it looks like a flower and smells like a flower, chances are it is a flower, ummm - motive wave? :)

Nikkei answers

Hi Joseph, Bear
The Alternation of waves 2 and 4 is not a rule it is a guidance, something to have in mind anticipating what could happen in a wave 4.
On your NIKKEI chart, ...but first let me just find something... A lesson I got from you :D..just a sec...

Here it is: Elliott wave counts work flawlessly only in hindsight! :D

Now back to your NIKKEI Chart.
If you go back to my NIKKEI chart you will see I labeled that part of the chart as your black count.
"My reason for the alt: red count is that the drop looks like a wave A and is not a 5-er"
I'm not sure if I understood this. Not sure what drop do you point and why it should be a 5-er.
Since you are analyzing a IM up, non of the drops must be an IM 5-er. To all of the drops on your chart, rules and guidances of the Corrections apply.
I'm not sure how would you label that alt. 3 if it is higher, his internal count?
On the part of your explanation about divergences in 5th, in my modest experience divergences show only in 5 wave structures, which means that beside the 5th of IM, they can show in parts of the corrections that could have 5 wave structures too.

as for the next questions on wedges.

Wave 4 can be any correctional pattern. So the answer to your "can the wave-C part of a wave 4 end in an EDT" must be searched in the rules for the waves C of the every different corrective pattern. Let see them:

ZZ

• wave C of a ZZ must be either an IM or ED
• if wave A of a ZZ is LD then wave C must not be an ED

Flat

• C must be IM or ED

Triangle

• C of Contracting Triangle can be any correctional pattern
• C of Expanding Triangle must be a ZZ based pattern

Double and Triple ZZ

• wave C of W cannot be a failure
• wave Y must be a ZZ
• Y must be equal or greater then X by price
• wave c of Y cannot be a failure
• wave Y must be grater than 90% wave W by price, and wave Y must be less than 5 times wave W by price

Double and Triple Sideways (D3 and T3)

• wave c of W cannot be a failure
• wave c of Y cannot be a failure
  

there few more rules on waves Y but no need to go into ore detail. What I can tell you is if you look too much into detail you know how the saying goes, stare into trees and you would not be able to see the forest.
Let your eye and intuition decide. Then if any doubts check rules. No way you can process all the rules and counts unless you trust what you already know, your intuition.
If it's easier for you, than try not searching for the Right Pattern, but for the Most probable one.
And as i mentioned many times, beside the fact that if you do your analysis well, EW will give you the right or at least the most probable Direction, the second most important thing is that you can tell at what point you are wrong and consider the next probable scenario.
Try to look for opportunities and not to be right.

As for "We also know that B waves cannot end in an EDT. Am I right so far"
since LD and ED are considered a special case of Motive waves (advancing) wave B cannot be either of this.

ID

Problems with audio solved.
video continuation to come.

Bear's declining wedge brings up another point

We know that the C-wave of a wave 2 can be an ending diagonal triangle (EDT) and that the same applies for 5th waves. We also know that B waves cannot end in an EDT. Am I right so far?

But, what about wave 4? .... wave 4s are generally triangles in their entirety, sometimes zigzags or flats, but ..........

can the wave-C part of a wave 4 end in an EDT?

Thanks Bear, good stuff.

Pour on the coal, Bear -- I've always liked your stuff, even at the graveyard. Good point with the count you've shown.

Yeah, things are certainly looking up at this little corner of the virtual world.

Thanks brother.

Joseph,

I’m not the Elliott Guru nor profess to be one, but throwing out my thoughts and we will see what Idejan thinks…

Thinking there should be some alteration between your 2 and 4 waves, possibly your finishing off wave 4 with the “B” being a running correction, the "C" being a declining wedge perhaps?? and you still have “d” and “e” to go in the "C" before up with wave 5.…

Just a bare brained thought.

USDCAD: I'm laffin so hard my head hurts.

:) :) :)Here's my post from March 3. Let me boast a little as a newbie, OK? I'm tickled pink.

"75% probability for ignition at contact point shown in daily chart. Caveat: 161.8 level is still a bit lower on voodoo Fib grid and is acting like a magnet/magnate. Macd has already made contact. RSi not yet. The trendline supports are from 2004 and 2003 respectively and command considerable respect. If they fire, it will be a rocket blast for some good gains, even if it is only for a few days.More as we go. Go salowly."

See 4-hr chart. I had everything pegged and analyzed correctly by conventional TA standards although my EW count was not correct (not a wave iv, but the move was an abc and c was completing), including giving a thunderous warning in my March 3rd post, "Defcon 4 alert for rally"

but what is the outcome? .. only a small position gives only small profits. Still better than nothing, but no question that there is considerable room for improvement here by going in bigtime when stuff I know works, is just about to happen.

But it is funny to see TA working so beautifully.

If I ever write a book in the future it will be called, "the reliability of long-term RSI trendline ignition!"

A nagging difficulty with 3rd of 3rd and 4th waves. Help!

See my attached chart of Nikkei.

This is only for clearing up my misunderstanding/difficulty in the area of 3rd of 3rd and 4th waves.

Which is correct, the count in black/grey or the alt: count in red? Why? ... your reasons, please.

My reason for the alt: red count is that the drop looks like a wave A and is not a 5-er.

One reason I have for the shown count in black/grey is due to my Precter days when I got the impression that 3rd of 3 shows tops on indicators such as Macd, RSi and even on trend strength indicators such as ADX. Then wave 3 gives a slight divergence and then wave 5 gives the ultimate divergence. Additionally, my own observations are that Macd and RSI generate a lower low on wave 4.

I'm fuzzy on this stuff and its quite likely there is an embedded misconception.

Your thoughts/explanations, please?

Some thoughts on learning -- students and teachers

There is a world of difference between a conventional self-determined student and one who is pan-determined.

Self-determinism is taking responsibility only & entirely for the self. Pan-determinism, on the other hand, is taking responsibility not just for self, but also for the other(s) involved in the game or venture at hand.

The former is an excellent trait to possess, but it pales in comparison to the latter.

Example: a game of soccer -- each team is only responsible for itself -- but think of the possibilities and permutations/combinations if one could be responsible for BOTH sides of the game -- equally and impartially. There's got to be a winner, but the depth of play will increase exponentially and all manner of art and magic will burst forth -- even in the event of a draw!!!

A close parallel in concept then, between a student and a selected teacher -- generally in life the teacher is selected by other-determinism. That's usually no good.

But when a lean, mean, hungry, determined student himself .... selects the teacher and then takes full responsibility for any perceived inabilities, real or imagined, in the psyche of the teacher, you have a recipe for success because it draws on the magic of pan-determinism.

His posts at the graveyard were outstanding, but what I've seen here is magic aborning -- like in the movie "The Black Stallion" -- this desert horse has EW levels of finesse that ain't never been tapped!

No newspaper ads, no magazine ads, no TV, no nothing -- my path crossed his -- in a graveyard; more specifically, at grave #34 -- a Fib number to boot.

A crooked, perhaps very knowledgeable moderator (knowledgeable especially in the realm of cliches -- he knows them all -- verbatim) at the graveyard said to me in a fit of rage; "you'll have blown your account and be gone from Forex within a few months, but I'll still be here!" ...... this moderator apparently makes millions of dollars and controls millions in funds of other companies/individuals etc. Bottomline: I wouldn't learn doodly squat from such a dude even if I paid him a trillion.

For months I was searching the graveyard for a decent broker and I was becoming exasperated. Every time it appeared that I found a good one, I'd run into a ton of negative stuff and would then eliminate the said broker.

I threw my hands up in absolute disgust and despair and fired off a mental distress call -- within a couple days I ran into Idejan's posts and lo and behold, his mention of Alpari; a broker who had not only Forex, but also Futures, USDX and a host of other stuff -- plus MT4 -- then from this same individual I found out that Oanda was also outstandingly good, whereas the graveyard was putting this outfit down across the board. Throw in the EW knowledge he possesses and you dig what I'm getting at?

A man's got to know his own limitations, but he also ought to know the right road when, in a drunken stupor, he stumbles upon it!

Adios amigos

Thank you all

Uh, far from being a classroom material.
I’m more of a intuitive person. I highly depend and trust my intuition. I don’t like constrains, so even when I have a system it is not as systematic as many would prefer. Most of the time it is more like a meditative process than anything else (nothing to do with yoga or any other meditations) and I’m not talking about analysis only.
I like keeping open mind. So while I have a strong attitude and opinions on many things, I’m always completely open and searching for surprises.
I apologize if at parts or possibly the whole video is unclear, specially because it is missing labels, in the next I will try adding labels and edit the video afterward to clear unnecessary delays. I just wanted it to be really live and unedited.
Sometimes we just think or expect that what is perfectly clear for us, will be clear to others too, forgetting that it came to our knowledge from something we have seen, read, heard and digested and based on our previous knowledge. So we need to make sure we communicate that same message to others as clear possible so they have the right message. But I’m not either a teacher or a professional trainer. I’m trying to log my cognitive processes so that others can use it, and perhaps I’ll improve doing that.
This was not my intention and if you find it useful, you should all thank to Joseph.
He insisted my EW knowledge being good enough for others to learn from and is responsible for this video being made. :D
I would not mind if he organizes a seminar on Thailand. I’d be glad to prepare better :D. Or perhaps I’ve ruined my reputation with this video :D

I’m addressing the audio problem and as soon as I finish that I’ll prepare the continuation of the USDJPY analysis including the current development. I’ll also present the other part of my TA, how I’m using one very simple tool, and I present it on that call from 28 Feb.
Stojce will put a link on the right side to a page where you can find all the videos I’ll prepare.
I’ve been told that many visitors from my neighboring Bulgaria and Serbia are coming this day, so a special thanks to all of them for their interest.
ID

Поздрав до сите Форекс пријатели од Бугарија и Србија.
Се надевам дека најдовте нешто корисно овде.
Вашите коментари и прашања се добредојдени.
Дејан

For ID: Thanks, thanks, thanks.

Don't mistake my belated thanks for indifference or ingratitude.

I want to read your posts several times, give it some thought, and assimilate the info before I respond.

A few more days then .......

Adios