Thursday, March 09, 2006

A nagging difficulty with 3rd of 3rd and 4th waves. Help!


See my attached chart of Nikkei.

This is only for clearing up my misunderstanding/difficulty in the area of 3rd of 3rd and 4th waves.

Which is correct, the count in black/grey or the alt: count in red? Why? ... your reasons, please.

My reason for the alt: red count is that the drop looks like a wave A and is not a 5-er.

One reason I have for the shown count in black/grey is due to my Precter days when I got the impression that 3rd of 3 shows tops on indicators such as Macd, RSi and even on trend strength indicators such as ADX. Then wave 3 gives a slight divergence and then wave 5 gives the ultimate divergence. Additionally, my own observations are that Macd and RSI generate a lower low on wave 4.

I'm fuzzy on this stuff and its quite likely there is an embedded misconception.

Your thoughts/explanations, please?

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