Thursday, March 09, 2006

Nikkei answers

Hi Joseph, Bear
The Alternation of waves 2 and 4 is not a rule it is a guidance, something to have in mind anticipating what could happen in a wave 4.
On your NIKKEI chart, ...but first let me just find something... A lesson I got from you :D..just a sec...

Here it is: Elliott wave counts work flawlessly only in hindsight! :D

Now back to your NIKKEI Chart.
If you go back to my NIKKEI chart you will see I labeled that part of the chart as your black count.
"My reason for the alt: red count is that the drop looks like a wave A and is not a 5-er"
I'm not sure if I understood this. Not sure what drop do you point and why it should be a 5-er.
Since you are analyzing a IM up, non of the drops must be an IM 5-er. To all of the drops on your chart, rules and guidances of the Corrections apply.
I'm not sure how would you label that alt. 3 if it is higher, his internal count?
On the part of your explanation about divergences in 5th, in my modest experience divergences show only in 5 wave structures, which means that beside the 5th of IM, they can show in parts of the corrections that could have 5 wave structures too.

as for the next questions on wedges.

Wave 4 can be any correctional pattern. So the answer to your "can the wave-C part of a wave 4 end in an EDT" must be searched in the rules for the waves C of the every different corrective pattern. Let see them:

ZZ
  • wave C of a ZZ must be either an IM or ED
  • if wave A of a ZZ is LD then wave C must not be an ED

Flat

  • C must be IM or ED

Triangle

  • C of Contracting Triangle can be any correctional pattern
  • C of Expanding Triangle must be a ZZ based pattern

Double and Triple ZZ

  • wave C of W cannot be a failure
  • wave Y must be a ZZ
  • Y must be equal or greater then X by price
  • wave c of Y cannot be a failure
  • wave Y must be grater than 90% wave W by price, and wave Y must be less than 5 times wave W by price

Double and Triple Sideways (D3 and T3)

  • wave c of W cannot be a failure
  • wave c of Y cannot be a failure
there few more rules on waves Y but no need to go into ore detail. What I can tell you is if you look too much into detail you know how the saying goes, stare into trees and you would not be able to see the forest.
Let your eye and intuition decide. Then if any doubts check rules. No way you can process all the rules and counts unless you trust what you already know, your intuition.
If it's easier for you, than try not searching for the Right Pattern, but for the Most probable one.
And as i mentioned many times, beside the fact that if you do your analysis well, EW will give you the right or at least the most probable Direction, the second most important thing is that you can tell at what point you are wrong and consider the next probable scenario.
Try to look for opportunities and not to be right.

As for "We also know that B waves cannot end in an EDT. Am I right so far"
since LD and ED are considered a special case of Motive waves (advancing) wave B cannot be either of this.

ID

Problems with audio solved.
video continuation to come.

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