Bear wrote me a mail, I've wrote a reply and on the way decided to move it here.
But first, WaveID Blog was not accessible for few days because of some technical issues as I've been told by the guys from Blogger support. Everything back to order now, except that we are on a critical juncture with this blog :)
Bear, I remember your post on MoneyTec, and I understand somebody could feel not being competent enough to comment. I'm also aware that there is a difference in format between blog and Public Forum as somebody else suggested, but since we three started a kind of a discussion, we made it kind of a forum, and Blogs still have comment option. So this difference in format could be only an excuse.
You mentioned classroom, but in the classroom, even without any spoken comments, teachers get feed back. They can observe their students behavior, so they get feedback from their faces and gestures, they know if their students are getting it or not, if they are interested or not. Here, without comments it is just like Joseph said, talking to a wall. He got that feeling in this month of posting here, I had it for so long on MoneyTec, until few of you started a discussion.
I never intended teaching, I don't think I have something to teach others. I could have something to share with others. We all know more than we are aware, we use our knowledge daily, but just few sit down and write down in a more presentable and systematized manner, so others can learn from. But my knowledge is not something I've prepared for publishing of any kind, it is not systematized, and at present moment I could not commit my self into such endeavor. It could be taken out by others. Discussions, questions, being questioned and questioning others, criticizing and being criticized, sharpens our knowledge and builds up our confidence in what we know and where we stand.
I don't agree with Joseph on my EW knowledge. I'm neither being modest or undervalue my real knowledge my self. I remember a friend of my father, a wonderful artist, stone sculptor, master of his craft was giving me my first drawing lessons. I was around 14 that time, and on our first class he told me: "It is OK that you are talented. But now, and you should remember this, you should invest 1 ton of hard work and effort for every single gram of talent you have, if you want to master your art." I never mastered, since later in life I turned to Film, it kind off integrated all of my passions for different kinds of art...
So even if I am talented, I know I have years of hard work before I can claim my master degree in EW :). I might be an old fashioned guy, but nowadays people claim titles too easy. Everything is so "digest".
I know Joseph insists he learned from my posts, but everything I could be held responsible is introducing him with his old forgotten friend, his own knowledge of EW.
From one genius mind of Management Philosophy and Theory, Dr. Isak Adizes, whom I had a privilege to met in person, and to learn from his Ingenious work on Management while I was at University, I was reminded on two essential ingredients for a healthy relationship: Mutual Trust and Respect.
IMHO we should use this two ingredients in our relationship with oneselfs too. As I've posted on few occasions on MTec, meAnalyst and meTrader should meet and they should became a close and very good friends if we want good results. That relationship should be based on mutual trust and respect.
Confidence is one of the key words related to success.
As for EW, it is always good to read what different authors have to tell on the subject, but the free Elliott Wave Tutorial available from Elliott Wave International is all you need.
Just don't take EW mechanically, neither purely mathematically (geometricaly).
Best Arguments are made, when all aspects of the argument are taken into consideration.
ID
Saturday, March 18, 2006
Thursday, March 16, 2006
Thank you Joseph
Thank you Joseph.
Joseph is right. When you don't get feed back, you have a feeling you are talking to a wall and you are just not sure if what you are saying is good to anybody, if anybody's reading and if reading do they like it and find it useful or not.
I understand him well.
I've seen the statistics, and I'm surprised my self that quite a good number of people saw EW videos, but not a single comment. That tells me that most probably nobody like it.
That is the reason I was not finding time to post new Market Update and a continuation on JPY video and the one I've said I'll do about other indicators I use to make calls.
However I'm very glad I've started writing the first time. I've made a good friend.
Thank you once again Joseph.
ID
Joseph is right. When you don't get feed back, you have a feeling you are talking to a wall and you are just not sure if what you are saying is good to anybody, if anybody's reading and if reading do they like it and find it useful or not.
I understand him well.
I've seen the statistics, and I'm surprised my self that quite a good number of people saw EW videos, but not a single comment. That tells me that most probably nobody like it.
That is the reason I was not finding time to post new Market Update and a continuation on JPY video and the one I've said I'll do about other indicators I use to make calls.
However I'm very glad I've started writing the first time. I've made a good friend.
Thank you once again Joseph.
ID
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
Monday, March 13, 2006
USDJPY: has brought me face to face with my nemesis
USDJPY: can this pair be the ultimate gift to the alienated cognoscenti?
We know or have read about NZDJPY and AUDJPY and now recently, CADJPY -- but this is a new ballgame. Why? The downtrodden, written-off, despised, retrograde USD has risen from the dungeon and delivered a comeback, upstaging all heretofore stars, except for perhaps CAD, among the majors.
nemesis, the applicable definition here .... one that inflicts retribution or vengeance.
To me, this pair represents the foundation of what Forex is all about -- namely, a resting place for one's funds, wherein one earns a Return, directly proportional to the degree of leverage used. Capital gains are a bonus in this regard, as the primary motivation and underlying foundation of the Forex is "Carry" -- aka a comfortable, relaxed and enjoyable ride.
Depending on how much you go in with, you could earn more than what most working stiffs in America are slogging their assess off for -- Americans are masters at converting Equity into Debt, having no savings, living from paycheck to paycheck with a window of no more than 2 months before its Salvation Army time -- that 50k in equity financing, applied to USDJPY -- with leverage -- could give one of these working stiffs his ticket to eternal financial salvation.
But we gots to get the direction correct!
Amen!
That's why I'm urging all technicians not to be too flippant about their analysis -- give it careful consideration and deliberation.
This is the mother of all opportunities and we are sitting right at the threshold.
Somewhere between 122 and 101 there ought to be a clear message as to intent.
My call stands as-is but it is no mental picnic knowing that ID's analysis, which I respect more than any I do any other elliottician's, is dead against my call.
Am I destined to go down in ignominous defeat in the face of the opportunity of the decade?
We know or have read about NZDJPY and AUDJPY and now recently, CADJPY -- but this is a new ballgame. Why? The downtrodden, written-off, despised, retrograde USD has risen from the dungeon and delivered a comeback, upstaging all heretofore stars, except for perhaps CAD, among the majors.
nemesis, the applicable definition here .... one that inflicts retribution or vengeance.
To me, this pair represents the foundation of what Forex is all about -- namely, a resting place for one's funds, wherein one earns a Return, directly proportional to the degree of leverage used. Capital gains are a bonus in this regard, as the primary motivation and underlying foundation of the Forex is "Carry" -- aka a comfortable, relaxed and enjoyable ride.
Depending on how much you go in with, you could earn more than what most working stiffs in America are slogging their assess off for -- Americans are masters at converting Equity into Debt, having no savings, living from paycheck to paycheck with a window of no more than 2 months before its Salvation Army time -- that 50k in equity financing, applied to USDJPY -- with leverage -- could give one of these working stiffs his ticket to eternal financial salvation.
But we gots to get the direction correct!
Amen!
That's why I'm urging all technicians not to be too flippant about their analysis -- give it careful consideration and deliberation.
This is the mother of all opportunities and we are sitting right at the threshold.
Somewhere between 122 and 101 there ought to be a clear message as to intent.
My call stands as-is but it is no mental picnic knowing that ID's analysis, which I respect more than any I do any other elliottician's, is dead against my call.
Am I destined to go down in ignominous defeat in the face of the opportunity of the decade?
Sunday, March 12, 2006
See chart. Great video, nice work. The sound is OK too; who says it has to be perfect? It was clear sounding to me and all I have is dialup. Thanks ID.
Don't know if anybody even appreciates the fact that this gent is going out of his way to educate us and he's doing it for no money. That in itself, after my experience thus far in Forex, is ..... rarified RARE!
Upto 1995 everything is OK as even the alternates match reasonably well.
What comes thereafter makes me old and crippled.
But I'm happy. Why? Because Prechter is calling for wave V down and is therefore in ID's camp.
Therefore that is the last place I want to be. :) :)
Great difficulty accepting the 2 key waves as impulsive. Not for lack of trying; I gave them the benefit of the doubt every which way I could; but ultimately I cannot buy it!
(1) Cannot have a triangle in wave 2 position. Two locations where I see them. See chart.
(2) The non-EW monthly chart is goddamn BULLISH!
(3) Correction to 116-106 range highly likely and welcomed, but then we're going to 135, 150, 180 and maybe 260. The first sign of reversal and strength, I'm in with tight stops until the large triangle's upper trendline and 122 are taken out.
(4) If 100 breaks, Prechter will have earned the right not to be considered a contrary indicator no more.
Can see ID's point of view clearly, but I just simply cannot go along with it. I'll be forced to if the bottom trendline support of the triangle breaks convincingly.
Bottomline: I believe that USDJPY is the golden pair for the rest of this decade and is a carrytrade player's ultimate wish come true -- I could earn USD 40K per year in Interest alone. But to do this comfortably I've got to be right in my direction call, otherwise loss of capital will kill the carry quickly.
This is a dilemma and as usual I'm alone. Same shit, different day, hehehehe!!!
Friday, March 10, 2006
Tennis Anyone?
Idejan,
Thank you for the video, very nice!! I guess months from now we all will be sitting back, studying them charts and saying ”That’s what was going on”. Until then the hunt continues.
Late last year I was convinced that we were ending a 5th and headed north for a correction, and although price has headed north from the first of the year it has done so with reluctance. And while it has been hard for me to number some of the smaller degree 5 waves in some of the earlier price action, either motive or larger corrective zigzag, I’m now starting to think there’s more south to come.
Price has held again today on yet another sliding parallel from the prior daily fork, as long as this holds it’s making me think that more range trading is to come. Now wondering if we are in the final wave of an ABC correction from the end of last year.
Thinking that this is like a failed ‘C” wave triangle or perhaps a flag?( A bear's thoughs). If this view is correct we could have another test of the top the “c” followed by a test of the low “d” and then a brief run to “e” and then the bottom would fall out.
Just trying to stay a step or two ahead…..
Well for some reason I can’t add a picture again will edit when able…………problems solved
USDJPY: The fundamental aspect.
Its Price, Price, Price, but the Interest Rate scenario is tied very closely to investors' purse strings -- that's the reason I pay attention to monetary policy in Japan.
Another compelling reason is that the Yen dances to nobody's tune. It is one heck of a loner; ninjas, yakuzas, Mafia, gurus and everybody worth anything has tried to come up with some sort of correlation that would provide clues to how the Yen works. So far, zilch; a dead end.
With the dollar, you could look into bond yields, Libor differentials, Forward Rates, Fed funds Rate etc., to get some idea of what is going on. With CAD you look at the Toronto Stock Exchange for clues along with fund inflows and the CRB component of the Stock Exchange etc.--
But with the Yen, there's not a single thing that comes even close to giving a halfways decent clue.
What all players want to know now is this:
"Will the end of Quantitative Easing be followed quickly by the ending of the zero interest rate policy?
That's the ticket, guys.
Japan has flooded the universe with liquidity, & has been a main source of capital and savings for the world. Now that looks like it is going to change.
I have an answer to the dilemma and therfore one more key point in my ongoing decision whether to buy (long) USDJPY or not!
The Quantitative Easing policy did not begin in earnest until 2003, four years after interest rates were reduced to below 10bp in 1999 and two years after they fell to absolute zero in mid-2001. Thus a gradual reduction in bank reserves from the present ¥35 trillion to ¥15 trillion (where they were in 2001) or even ¥5 trillion where they were in 1999 would be perfectly compatible with zero or near-zero interest rates.
It is highly likely that BOJ will reduce liquidity while maintaining a zero Interest Rate policy for this decade.
There is a good reason for sticking with the zero interest rate policy.
Japan has a huge government deficit and a very high level of public debt relative to GDP. Thus when the economy gets strong enough to withstand a deflationary impact, the Japanese will want to hit it with fiscal rather than monetary tightening. Tax increases are already in preparation for 2007 or 2008 and to make sure that they can be implemented without causing a 1997-style economic disaster, Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance officials have agreed that monetary policy should remain ultra-loose for the foreseeable future.
All the discussion about ending Quantitative Easing seems to have persuaded many investors that the zero rate policy is also about to be abandoned. The Japanese yield curve is now discounting a very aggressive increase in interest rates, with short rates expected to rise by 75 bps this year and 150 bps by the end of 2007.
I am stating that Interest Rates will remain under 50 basis points or so for the next few years.
I'm satisfied with my fundamental analysis of the situation and furthermore, one more point in its favor is that now the herd is going strongly towards rising Japan Interest Rates. I certainly don't want to go with them. The opposite is the more likely scenario, namely, rates will stay close to zero!
Another compelling reason is that the Yen dances to nobody's tune. It is one heck of a loner; ninjas, yakuzas, Mafia, gurus and everybody worth anything has tried to come up with some sort of correlation that would provide clues to how the Yen works. So far, zilch; a dead end.
With the dollar, you could look into bond yields, Libor differentials, Forward Rates, Fed funds Rate etc., to get some idea of what is going on. With CAD you look at the Toronto Stock Exchange for clues along with fund inflows and the CRB component of the Stock Exchange etc.--
But with the Yen, there's not a single thing that comes even close to giving a halfways decent clue.
What all players want to know now is this:
"Will the end of Quantitative Easing be followed quickly by the ending of the zero interest rate policy?
That's the ticket, guys.
Japan has flooded the universe with liquidity, & has been a main source of capital and savings for the world. Now that looks like it is going to change.
I have an answer to the dilemma and therfore one more key point in my ongoing decision whether to buy (long) USDJPY or not!
The Quantitative Easing policy did not begin in earnest until 2003, four years after interest rates were reduced to below 10bp in 1999 and two years after they fell to absolute zero in mid-2001. Thus a gradual reduction in bank reserves from the present ¥35 trillion to ¥15 trillion (where they were in 2001) or even ¥5 trillion where they were in 1999 would be perfectly compatible with zero or near-zero interest rates.
It is highly likely that BOJ will reduce liquidity while maintaining a zero Interest Rate policy for this decade.
There is a good reason for sticking with the zero interest rate policy.
Japan has a huge government deficit and a very high level of public debt relative to GDP. Thus when the economy gets strong enough to withstand a deflationary impact, the Japanese will want to hit it with fiscal rather than monetary tightening. Tax increases are already in preparation for 2007 or 2008 and to make sure that they can be implemented without causing a 1997-style economic disaster, Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance officials have agreed that monetary policy should remain ultra-loose for the foreseeable future.
All the discussion about ending Quantitative Easing seems to have persuaded many investors that the zero rate policy is also about to be abandoned. The Japanese yield curve is now discounting a very aggressive increase in interest rates, with short rates expected to rise by 75 bps this year and 150 bps by the end of 2007.
I am stating that Interest Rates will remain under 50 basis points or so for the next few years.
I'm satisfied with my fundamental analysis of the situation and furthermore, one more point in its favor is that now the herd is going strongly towards rising Japan Interest Rates. I certainly don't want to go with them. The opposite is the more likely scenario, namely, rates will stay close to zero!
Divergence study is now complete! Thanks.
Wow! You took it even one step further than I was envisioning -- I had not even considered a divergence between 5th of (iii) and 5th of 3.
Man, I tell you, this is one heck of a top-notch class I'm fortunate to be in.
Its the basics that are popping out at me and all my failed purposes with EW are getting rekindled.
I believe that in a year or so, I'll be a force to reckon with.
Thanks buddy.
Man, I tell you, this is one heck of a top-notch class I'm fortunate to be in.
Its the basics that are popping out at me and all my failed purposes with EW are getting rekindled.
I believe that in a year or so, I'll be a force to reckon with.
Thanks buddy.
NEW EURUSD video analysis
I posted a new Video Analysis on EURUSD and you can find it by clicking on the link in the right sidebar.
While I was prepearing the files for publishing, uploading the files to the pages price made a strong spikes down, stil it can't be taken as a confirmation. I'd prefer this to clear up before it can be clear if we have a confirmation down or we can expect this to be still part of the correction.
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ID
While I was prepearing the files for publishing, uploading the files to the pages price made a strong spikes down, stil it can't be taken as a confirmation. I'd prefer this to clear up before it can be clear if we have a confirmation down or we can expect this to be still part of the correction.
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ID
Joseph: divergences in 3rds
This chart was prepared for that previous post, and I was confused when I saw your post today, since I was not aware I've missed posting it.
So here it is, and as you can see I agree with your observation about the divergences in 3rd waves, actualy as I wrote in previos post in my observation, 3 wave cycles are not producing divergence and any 5 wave cycle (which means not only IM) are giving divergence.
Divergences in the substructures are reflected too depending od the degree and the time frame you are observing.
I haven't done a study on this, but when I've mentioned observing patterns on RSI I was reffering to this.
I dont have MACD on my charts so I can't speak much about it but it is clear to me that you can't play divergences on their own, but reather use them for inforcement on price patterns.
Now Joseph, I became aware that there are questions I've missed answering, so if it's not too much of a trouble to you, could you please mail me all of the questions by mail so I can have them addressed one by one.
Dejan
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