I will enter only on breakout! If we do get to the 78.6% retracement level @ 1.1000, I will position. The 75% Long/Short ratio at Oanda suggests a short-term rally, but for a lasting bottom we've got to see a "flip" in positioning -- i.e. a sudden switch by the majority to a Net Short position. Then we might have a true bottom.
UsdCad is retracing the entire run from 1970 -- Jan 2002 and has crossed the 61.8% fib & is just shy of the 78.6 @ 1.1000. Core support, dating back to 1978 has slowed down this freight train some.
Lowest RSI weekly reading in June 2003 -- divergence galore; players banking on divergence alone can be found in low-cost hospitals all around the world.
I've swing traded this beauty very gently -- low leverage plays, profitable but not worthy of substantial merit.
She's got to retrace the drop from May 2005 sooner or later -- that will be a nice run. I shall partake of her bounty, but only on breakout!
ID, know any other establishment that puts out accurate Long/Short ratios, other than Oanda?
I know FXCM is publishing what they call SSI - Speculative Sentiment Index once a week, every Tuesday I believe.
ReplyDeletewww.dailyfx.com
there you can find a COT report and Currency correlations.
ID