Thursday, March 09, 2006



Joseph,

I’m not the Elliott Guru nor profess to be one, but throwing out my thoughts and we will see what Idejan thinks…

Thinking there should be some alteration between your 2 and 4 waves, possibly your finishing off wave 4 with the “B” being a running correction, the "C" being a declining wedge perhaps?? and you still have “d” and “e” to go in the "C" before up with wave 5.…

Just a bare brained thought.

USDCAD: I'm laffin so hard my head hurts.


:) :) :)Here's my post from March 3. Let me boast a little as a newbie, OK? I'm tickled pink.

"75% probability for ignition at contact point shown in daily chart. Caveat: 161.8 level is still a bit lower on voodoo Fib grid and is acting like a magnet/magnate. Macd has already made contact. RSi not yet. The trendline supports are from 2004 and 2003 respectively and command considerable respect. If they fire, it will be a rocket blast for some good gains, even if it is only for a few days.More as we go. Go salowly."

See 4-hr chart. I had everything pegged and analyzed correctly by conventional TA standards although my EW count was not correct (not a wave iv, but the move was an abc and c was completing), including giving a thunderous warning in my March 3rd post, "Defcon 4 alert for rally"

but what is the outcome? .. only a small position gives only small profits. Still better than nothing, but no question that there is considerable room for improvement here by going in bigtime when stuff I know works, is just about to happen.

But it is funny to see TA working so beautifully.

If I ever write a book in the future it will be called, "the reliability of long-term RSI trendline ignition!"

A nagging difficulty with 3rd of 3rd and 4th waves. Help!


See my attached chart of Nikkei.

This is only for clearing up my misunderstanding/difficulty in the area of 3rd of 3rd and 4th waves.

Which is correct, the count in black/grey or the alt: count in red? Why? ... your reasons, please.

My reason for the alt: red count is that the drop looks like a wave A and is not a 5-er.

One reason I have for the shown count in black/grey is due to my Precter days when I got the impression that 3rd of 3 shows tops on indicators such as Macd, RSi and even on trend strength indicators such as ADX. Then wave 3 gives a slight divergence and then wave 5 gives the ultimate divergence. Additionally, my own observations are that Macd and RSI generate a lower low on wave 4.

I'm fuzzy on this stuff and its quite likely there is an embedded misconception.

Your thoughts/explanations, please?

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Some thoughts on learning -- students and teachers

There is a world of difference between a conventional self-determined student and one who is pan-determined.

Self-determinism is taking responsibility only & entirely for the self. Pan-determinism, on the other hand, is taking responsibility not just for self, but also for the other(s) involved in the game or venture at hand.

The former is an excellent trait to possess, but it pales in comparison to the latter.

Example: a game of soccer -- each team is only responsible for itself -- but think of the possibilities and permutations/combinations if one could be responsible for BOTH sides of the game -- equally and impartially. There's got to be a winner, but the depth of play will increase exponentially and all manner of art and magic will burst forth -- even in the event of a draw!!!

A close parallel in concept then, between a student and a selected teacher -- generally in life the teacher is selected by other-determinism. That's usually no good.

But when a lean, mean, hungry, determined student himself .... selects the teacher and then takes full responsibility for any perceived inabilities, real or imagined, in the psyche of the teacher, you have a recipe for success because it draws on the magic of pan-determinism.

His posts at the graveyard were outstanding, but what I've seen here is magic aborning -- like in the movie "The Black Stallion" -- this desert horse has EW levels of finesse that ain't never been tapped!

No newspaper ads, no magazine ads, no TV, no nothing -- my path crossed his -- in a graveyard; more specifically, at grave #34 -- a Fib number to boot.

A crooked, perhaps very knowledgeable moderator (knowledgeable especially in the realm of cliches -- he knows them all -- verbatim) at the graveyard said to me in a fit of rage; "you'll have blown your account and be gone from Forex within a few months, but I'll still be here!" ...... this moderator apparently makes millions of dollars and controls millions in funds of other companies/individuals etc. Bottomline: I wouldn't learn doodly squat from such a dude even if I paid him a trillion.

For months I was searching the graveyard for a decent broker and I was becoming exasperated. Every time it appeared that I found a good one, I'd run into a ton of negative stuff and would then eliminate the said broker.

I threw my hands up in absolute disgust and despair and fired off a mental distress call -- within a couple days I ran into Idejan's posts and lo and behold, his mention of Alpari; a broker who had not only Forex, but also Futures, USDX and a host of other stuff -- plus MT4 -- then from this same individual I found out that Oanda was also outstandingly good, whereas the graveyard was putting this outfit down across the board. Throw in the EW knowledge he possesses and you dig what I'm getting at?

A man's got to know his own limitations, but he also ought to know the right road when, in a drunken stupor, he stumbles upon it!

Adios amigos

Thank you all

Uh, far from being a classroom material.
I’m more of a intuitive person. I highly depend and trust my intuition. I don’t like constrains, so even when I have a system it is not as systematic as many would prefer. Most of the time it is more like a meditative process than anything else (nothing to do with yoga or any other meditations) and I’m not talking about analysis only.
I like keeping open mind. So while I have a strong attitude and opinions on many things, I’m always completely open and searching for surprises.
I apologize if at parts or possibly the whole video is unclear, specially because it is missing labels, in the next I will try adding labels and edit the video afterward to clear unnecessary delays. I just wanted it to be really live and unedited.
Sometimes we just think or expect that what is perfectly clear for us, will be clear to others too, forgetting that it came to our knowledge from something we have seen, read, heard and digested and based on our previous knowledge. So we need to make sure we communicate that same message to others as clear possible so they have the right message. But I’m not either a teacher or a professional trainer. I’m trying to log my cognitive processes so that others can use it, and perhaps I’ll improve doing that.
This was not my intention and if you find it useful, you should all thank to Joseph.
He insisted my EW knowledge being good enough for others to learn from and is responsible for this video being made. :D
I would not mind if he organizes a seminar on Thailand. I’d be glad to prepare better :D. Or perhaps I’ve ruined my reputation with this video :D

I’m addressing the audio problem and as soon as I finish that I’ll prepare the continuation of the USDJPY analysis including the current development. I’ll also present the other part of my TA, how I’m using one very simple tool, and I present it on that call from 28 Feb.
Stojce will put a link on the right side to a page where you can find all the videos I’ll prepare.
I’ve been told that many visitors from my neighboring Bulgaria and Serbia are coming this day, so a special thanks to all of them for their interest.
ID

Поздрав до сите Форекс пријатели од Бугарија и Србија.
Се надевам дека најдовте нешто корисно овде.
Вашите коментари и прашања се добредојдени.
Дејан

For ID: Thanks, thanks, thanks.

Don't mistake my belated thanks for indifference or ingratitude.

I want to read your posts several times, give it some thought, and assimilate the info before I respond.

A few more days then .......

Adios

EURUSD: details on my wave C (up) call!


Caveat: The market will tell me and you whether I am a shmuck or a sublime lover -- when? .... we'll know soon enough. I'm ready for both outcomes but prefer the latter and have a bottle of Sake ready if the former decapitates my pride.

Let's get on with it then, shall we? See chart. Stoploss line is just below wave 1 beginning @ either 1.1833 or 1.1825.

Wave C has been underway from Feb 27th low of 1.1825 or Feb 28th low of 1.1833.

The current colossal drop is wave 2 down. Don't know whether this wave 2 is a complete abc or whether it is only wave (a) of 2.

Either way I am in and positioned for love or a kick in the ass.

I remember my own writing about the devilishness of wave 2 and how every mother's son expects the previous bearishness to continue. This is the time for the individual to rise above the crowd thinking and walk the road alone, lonely as a son of a gun, with trepidation and his own internal destroyer wreaking havoc on his well-being. Such is life; it can be a bitch during such moments.

I therefore take my stand, hold my ground and wait!

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

USDJPY EW videos

Here are the links of the EW Video Analysis on USDJPY.
It is in two parts, has a low quality audio, but I believe it will do.
I will try the next one to be with better audio.
Here are the links:

USDJPY Part 1

USDJPY Part 2

Tomorrow I will continue with the analysis on the recent Development and since I was asked how I do my calls, I could shortly show that on the last calls from 28 Feb Market update.
It will present the other part of my TA, my MAIDs and my modified RSI.

I sincerely hope you will find this videos useful, I know that labeling would have been a great +, but it would have taken considerably more minutes and would add to the size of the video.
I just hope that you can handle my presentation and I'd appreciate comments and questions.
I once again apologize for the low quality audio, that was the main reason this wasn't published yesterday. Hope to be able to find the best quality to size solution and to clear the interferences that are creating the noise, for the next video.

ID

EurUsd: original call -- wave C up -- still very much alive.

My call of wave C up is unchanged!

Just hammered in some LONG ...... EurUsd at the very lows.

First sign of reversal and continuation north will be greeted by more purchases.

But for now, I'm IN!

Update


Never got the chance to get back in south and my north wave 2 folly got me nowhere, price has found some support back on the bottom tine of our previous daily fork, looking to get back short from a retrace.

Hope everyone's having a great day


Idejan, some good points on wave trading. Thanks.

well, it looks like Im back to being unable to post a pic again (it's blue because i'm sad.)


It's Fixed :) What's a happy color?