Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Longer Term NZDUSD outlook


Suddenly it occurred to me that I can write text here, and not necessarily on the Chart :)
Probably if there was more space on it , it would not occurred to me. I got carried away.

Any way I wrote most of it on the chart and I'll only add few things. Please read the text on the Chart first.
Since the Uptrend from 2001 has IM structure, if we agree with that then only A waves of corrections can have IM structure, indicating that there two more legs before the correction is finished.

Taking that the ongoing development is of pure corrective nature we an say that after this smaller degree correction down is finished, we could expect one more up.
If we don't consider the move from 2001-2005 an IM, then it could be a finished correction....

Looking at currency pairs correlations, we can see that NZD lost it's correlation with both AUDUSD and EU pairs, meaning that when other pairs move strong on dollar NZD doesn't.
On the picture left, we can see that the developing from the 2005 top has clear corrective nature, and is most probably the first Minor wave A of the larger Intermediate (B), currently in a Minute ((c))
Please bear in mind that I don't follow NZD, so I could be easily missing something and be very wrong.

ID

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