Tuesday, February 21, 2006

NZDUSD & how the Pitchfork could have saved me!


NZDUSD (4-hr timeframe) cancelled my subscription to the resurrection and sent my credentials to the House of Detention!

My Moneytec post on Feb 10th "NZDUSD .... has fired a missile at the 4-hr descending trendline -- a 4-hr close above 0.6783 will send it into orbit -- of course, what I'm shooting for is a hold for wave C (up) and if it does materialize I will leverage up rapidly and hold for days or weeks -- I'm in since yesterday; STOP is in at breakeven"

I called this wave C blast @ MoneyTec in ID's thread, Market Direction in this pair -- given that my Elliottwave skills reside in the subterranean zone of 2-3 on a scale of 1-10, that was a more-brawn-than-brains call.

The STOP saved me & the "carry" delighted me but the overall mistake haunted me -- I generally don't beat myself up after a failure, but I do develop an insatiable hunger for the "why" and a quick resolution within the framework of my existing toolkit.

I love picking Bottoms and Tops, sometimes even going in without gloves, as in this particular case.

Will I ever change this morbid form of entertainment?

No! But I soy-tenly need to sharpen my other tools some more.

Enter the Pitchfork -- perhaps Bear can point out clearer depictions than the one I'm showing in the attached chart -- but even this one, as-is, would have restrained me sufficiently due to the descent toward the medianline.

Its becoming clear to me quite rapidly that the appropriate adjective to describe the Pitchfork is, ........ formidable!

Perhaps if the male leaders of countries got more mileage out of their medianlines we'd have less war and more humma-humma. :)

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