Thursday, February 23, 2006

USDJPY: The Interest Rate differential angle


See accompanying chart -- the Japanese Yen 12-month Libor Rate.

LIBOR = London Interbank Offer Rate.

There's been alot of talk recently about Japan starting to embark on a rising rate scenario, but even if this is so, the phenomenal resistance depicted in the LIBOR chart for 12-month Japanese Yen pretty much ensures that the Rate differential between USD and JPY will remain in my favor (for LONG this pair) for quite some time to come, even if USD rates take a bit of a hiatus in hikes.

Unfortunately the (USD--JPY) Libor rate differential is not unequivocally giving me the juice I'm after so there are other fundamental drivers of this pair other than just pure higher returns based on Interest Rate Differentials alone.

But at least this factor is in my favor -- and every noteworthy factor is being taken into consideration here.

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